Samwise
Lowetide
November 25 2010 10:32PM
The pack of hyenas that makes up the irrational portion of the Oilers fanbase has found new prey. They have moved past Shawn Horcoff, last year's victim. They've beaten up on Tom Gilbert this fall, but the quality of the blue overall is so bad that pointing a finger at 77 seems both cruel and dangerous. It looks like the new whipping boy is none other than former golden child Sam Gagner.
Sam Gagner is 21 years old. He has played his entire NHL career on a terrible team, and each season managed to be one of their top 5 scorers. He's also improving in some secondary areas, to the point where the Edmonton Oilers may actually have two NHL calibre centers (the other being Horcoff).
Let's begin our look at Sam Gagner with the two loudest voices in the crowd currently:
- He doesn't deliver enough offense
- He doesn't deliver anything else
Let's start with the offense. If we can agree that the best judge of offensive ability is even strength scoring, then Gabriel Desjardins dandy 5x5/60 metric gives us a quick look into how things are going.
- Ryan Jones (2.24 in limited play)
- Ales Hemsky (2.11)
- Sam Gagner (2.03)
- Dustin Penner (1.98)
The complete list is here and as one might expect the young rookies are well down the list. No surprise, the NHL is the toughest league on the planet and the Oilers are running those kids out there at an incredible clip. All those 15 minute nights add up unless you're delivering offense consistently.
WHAT ABOUT CORSI?????
Jim Corsi's measuring stick is a terrific help when trying to figure out who's helping over the course of a season. We certainly need to view this puppy through an adjusted lens, but the overall picture is pretty damn clear. Here are the relCorsi numbers for Edmonton's forwards so far this season:
- Taylor Hall 15.6
- Dustin Penner 15.2
- Jordan Eberle 12.0
- Sam Gagner 9.4
- Shawn Horcoff 6.8
- Ales Hemsky 3.9
- Andrew Cogliano 0.0
- Steve MacIntyre -7.0
- Gilbert Brule -7.3
- Zack Stortini -8.6
- Ryan Jones -18.2
- Magnus Pääjärvi -19.4
- Colin Fraser -19.8
- JF Jacques -35.9
The top 2 lines (Horcoff-Hall-Eberle and Gagner-Penner-Hemsky) were doing exceptionally well considering the nuclear disaster that is the Oilers blueline. Cogliano, MacIntyre, Brule and Stortini are below sea level relCorsi but there are lots of reasons for that and I don't think we can blame any of them for sins real or imagined so far this season.
Ryan Jones, Colin Fraser and Pääjärvi are getting killed by this measure and I'm prepared to admit that Fraser has been a very disappointing player. You may wonder about Jones appearing so high in scoring and so low in Corsi, but that imo has a lot to do with low time on ice per game and luck. If Jones can deliver the kind of offense shown in 5x5/60 all season long he's going to have a career.
GAGNER IS WAY BEHIND
No. He's right on time. Sam Gagner's entire NHL career has been played outside the playoffs. It's ridiculous to blame the youth of a team for not winning; the real culprit here is a lack of depth blue and 3-4 line forwards who can play the game to something near even.
Losing organizations blame their best players (example: Montreal Expos dealing Gary Carter) and hopeless organizations trade their youth (example: NYI, Maple Leafs) miles before they're ready.I've seen and heard a few things over the last week or so in regard to Sam Gagner's inability to step forward. I find it amazing that people feel this way, since he is:
- on pace for his first 20-goal season
- leads the team in EV scoring (5-5-10)
- is playing 14.5 minutes a night at even strength and is managing a 5x5/60 number above 2.00
The Edmonton Oilers have a lot of problems. Sam Gagner isn't one of them.
I think there are a lot of good points being made here and it's not 89's fault but, yeah, it's unlikely he's gonna turn into a dominant #1 pivot.
That being said he's not a bad player and he's worth holding onto; or at least at this stage.
The point I didn't see mentioned here is that all draft classes aren't equal and the Oil were unfortunate enough to have a high pick in the '07 draft year because there doesn't appear to be any special players from that group except maybe Kane.
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sorry bdaZZler
"The Edmonton Oilers have a lot of problems. Sam Gagner isn't one of them."
Lowetide yes the Oil do have lots of problems and yes Sam Gagner is one of them. You can pull out shayne corsi numbers or whatever to convince yourself otherwise but sometimes the truth hurts. We got unlucky that the 07 draft was so poor.
Good post lowetide, I have actually noticed that Gagner has improved quite a bit, there has been games where I have wondered who the player streaking down the ice is and it turns out to be Gagner. His top speed has improved alot and his defensive game is coming along nicely, if he puts on some weight for the next few years he could be a very good second line centre or at least a passible first. He is also having a very good start and with Gagner he always seems to be a completely different player in the second half of the year, so expect his stats to look better than what he is on pace for now.
@Matt
pfft - ok Matt
WHOA!!!!!!
That is an Ass shot.. holy smokes...
umm.. gagner, yeah,..
LT, when did you get so.. not-subtle?!.. hehe..
As an aside: Gagner has been a bit of a goat for me too, but lets be clear - it isnt blogosphere induced.. he just seems weak, often.. more than a few times I've cursed another dead play as his fault.. and his totals are lukewarm.. but he does try and once in a while he does something noteworthy.. plus, he is taking on line one responsibilities so it is safe to say he is going to get exposed a little more (better D).. and he is one of two on the roster, so quit bitchn i guess..
father Dave did not bless this kid with good genes.
Actually Couture has 4 more years of rfa status. Couture is much better because he already has a good all around game that his g.m raves about and can win faceoffs at the same age as Gagner, and those lovely little arrows lowtide likes to talk about are pointing up for him were it counts to being a centre.
"The Edmonton Oilers have a lot of problems. Sam Gagner isn't one of them."
You know, not to pick on you in particular, LT...but looking back over the past couple of seasons I swear to God I've heard the following from numerous guys, both here and elsewhere:
"Sam Gagner is not the problem" "Ales Hemsky is not the problem" "Shawn Horcoff is not the problem" "Tom Gilbert is not the problem" "Dustin Penner is not the problem" "Ryan Whitney is not the problem" "Andrew Cogliano is not the problem"
That's a lot of key payers that supposedly aren't "the problem", yet this team found a way to finish DEAD LAST a season ago, and look dead set on finishing no better than bottom 3 this season...and they've not even begun to ring up the usual season-ending injuries that they invariably do.
It kinda makes me ponder two question:
1 - What IS the problem? 2 - If they're not the problem, does that necessarily mean they're the solution?
Plain and simple, depth.
With the exception of Hemsky and Maybe Penner all of those guys are being asked to play out of their comfort zone.
3/4 dmen being asked to play 1/2 minutes and competition, 2nd line forwards being asked to contribute/play against first liners.
"It looks like the new whipping boy is none other than former golden child Sam Gagner."
I've seen Willis compare Gagner favorably in certain aspects of the game to Patrick Kane as well as prominent older players based on production at a certain age etc.
Is the "golden child" reference made with that in mind or what you've preceived as the opinion of fans in general?
And Tom Gilbert has been beaten up because he's been mostly awful this season.
Here's the article Robin's referring to.
Neither. I was turning a phrase. Good article (posted by Jonathan) though.
A mistake of omission, I meant to type:
"San Jose has 2 more years of Couture as an RFA than the Oilers do with Gagner"
The preceding sentence was talking about wasting young players RFA years, and criticizing the Oilers.
and those lovely little arrows lowtide likes to talk about are pointing up for him were it counts to being a centre.
Yes they are. His speed (like Gagner) is in question, but his arrow are pointing up.
I don't understand your point. I agree that Couture is a fine young player. He was in the same draft year as Gagner, and has similar boxcars as Gagner. Couture is better in faceoffs by about 2 more wins per night.
Why is Couture such a great young prospect, when by similar results, Gagner isn't?
They were drafted 3 spots apart and have very similar numbers.
When are the days when the fans or media turn on the GM? Or is everyone content with waiting until the 2014 season?
Dennis: I think Oiler fans have bought into the rebuild, but not Tambellini necessarily. jmo.
Not sure if you have read it yet LT but heres Redline update. I know you love these guys
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2010-11-26-red-line-report_N.htm
He is quicker and faster than Sam, and please don't use the 2 faceoffs/game, when they have Penner taking the ones in the left hand circles, % wise he much better 10% better, and has the ability to win 1 on 1 battles down low that are vital for centres, his G.M said today he is the best 3 zone rookie in the league.
Jordan Eberle would be a better centre than Gagner, similar skill set and body type, and no one would suggest that except for Lowtide, which isn't surprising since he beleives Gagner has the skill to be a 1st line centre, so thats not saying much. Jordan even played a little in junior but was moved to the wing for obvious reasons, why the Oilers didn't leave Gagner there after his rookie year is mind blowing.
That is why Couture is a better "CENTRE" prospect
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You know, you can drag out all the players whose development was slower or different in hopes than Gagner will be just like them but I can drag out as many or more whose development was faster and much more significant.
But the real issue is, over the next five years, is Gagner going to be good enough as a second line centre to compete against the best in the west.
I say five years because in a fluid situation like the NHL, where rosters turn over dramatically (see Chicago) it's impossible to project any further and even five years is a stretch.
So let's look at Vancouver (since the Oilers will have to go through them to get anywhere) and their centre depth.
Sedin Kesler Malhotra Perrault Hodgson Shroeder
Given that within 5 years, Gagner is going to get paid, how would you like his chances on that team?
How about Colorado?
Statsny Duchene O'Reilly Porter
While I agree coming to a conclusion on a 21 year old may not be a smart idea, it's not unreasonable to look at a players skill set and progress in his fourth year in the league and start to see where he fits in the pantheon. And, of course, all this is in response to Lowetide coming to the conclusion that Gagner "isn't a problem".
The "problem" is that the Oilers organization and it's fans almost without exception over value their players and prospects and end up with a bunch of threes dressed up as nines (Hemsky, Horcoff, Gagner, Khabibulin, Gilbert as just a few examples) and wondering why the team is consistently a steaming pile.
That's a problem.