Over the past couple days there has been information coming out about what Connor McDavid’s new contract will look like. According to TSN’s Ryan Rishaug and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, that number looks to be coming in around $13-13.25 million over eight years.
The first thing we’re going to get out of the way is the obvious fact that this is a lot of cake for only one player. At $13.25 million, Connor’s contract would be valued at 17.6% of the cap which is definitely high but, at the same time, we still don’t know what NEXT year’s cap will look like. Is it unreasonable to assume that adding Vegas into the mix will increase league revenues and raise next year’s cap, bringing down the overall percentage of McDavid’s deal? I don’t think so. Hell, this year’s cap was supposed to be flat but it still managed to go up just under 3%.
The fact that the Oilers were able to get Connor to be open to an eight-year contract is a huge win for the organization. There was plenty of talk about him taking five years which would have allowed him to walk away for nothing if he chose to do so, so getting him locked in at eight years makes a huge difference. Think about it this way, if Connor had signed a five-year contract for similar money then how much would he have looked for after those five years? It’s not crazy to think that he’d demand another raise after five years, right?
From where I blog, Connor McDavid will be worth every penny of this deal.
APPLES TO APPLES
While Connor’s contract will set a new record for the NHL in terms of dollars spent on a single season, it’s actually more in line with what other league superstars make than you may think. It’s also important to compare apples to apples when looking at these contracts. For that purpose, I’m going to look at what a few fellow superstars signed for and what that meant for the cap at the time of the signing:
- When Crosby signed his second contract in 2007 for $8.7 million/year, that accounted for 17.3% of the cap at the time of signing (Cap: $50.3 million). Will the cap jump as much as it did for the first year of Sid’s deal? Probably not, but I seriously doubt that it won’t move at all.
- The contract that Alex Ovechkin signed in January of 2009 was for 19% of that year’s cap (the cap went up the following season, bringing that percentage down, but at the time of signing it was 19%). The 2008/09 cap — when he signed his deal — was $56.7 million.
- BONUS FACT! Brad Richards signed a new five-year, $7.8 million contract for the 2006/07 season, which accounted for 18% of the cap ($44 million).
My point is that you’re not going to get a Rolls Royce on Ford Escort pricing no matter how hard you try. If you want the best player on earth, you’re going to have to pay for it and the Oilers are going to do just that when it comes to Connor. Actually, it’s pretty funny to think that the Oilers are actually getting a better relative deal on McDavid than the Lightning got on Brad Richards. Think about that for a minute without laughing. The biggest problem the Oilers are going to have isn’t Connor’s contract, it’s going to be finding valuable guys that can play beside him that won’t break the bank in the process.
With this contract being eight years long, McDavid is committing four years of unrestricted free agency to Edmonton. A nightmare scenario for the Oilers would be a four-year deal at the max — which is 20% of the upper limit, or, $15 million annually right now — that takes him right to free agency. We can’t predict that the cap will explode the same way it did a decade ago, but it will certainly continue to rise over this eight year deal.
WHAT ABOUT THE CAP?
To me, the scariest part about Connor’s deal isn’t what McDavid actually signs for but rather what Leon is going to get. All along I’ve thought that Draisaitl was going to fall somewhere around the Tarasenko range ($7.5 million per) but now I’m not so sure. If Connor is going to get $13.25 does that mean Draisaitl’s agent will try to push his client closer to eight figures? The Oilers had better hope not.
When Toews and Kane signed their new deals on July 9th, 2014, they accounted for nearly 30% of the salary cap (at that time), which could be eclipsed by Edmonton if they’re not careful. To get there, Draisaitl’s new deal would have to come in at $9.3 million which I think we can agree is probably a little bit high for what he’s likely to get, but you never know. Regardless of what actually happens, the Oilers are going to need a few ‘6’s dressed up as ‘9’s if they’re going to make this work.
But seriously, how could you be fine with Milan Lucic and Kris Russell making a combined $10 million when a potential top-5 player of all-time makes $13.5 million? None of those other free agents the Oilers have signed took a discount, why should the generational talent do so? Also, don’t forget about the NHLPA. What happens to all of the players in the league if the league’s MVP takes a discount, ultimately driving everyone’s value down?
We’re going to have Connor McDavid, the best player in the world, signed for eight years. This is a good thing.
WHAT SAY YOU?
$13M would be $17.3% of the 2017-18 cap ceiling. That's the same cap percentage as Sidney Crosby's $8.7M contract signed in 2007. https://t.co/4dG2tl6FTh
— NHLNumbers (@NHLnumbers) June 27, 2017
At the end of the day, the Oilers really only had two options — sign Connor to what he’s worth or risk losing him when the team control years ran out. Is $13.25 million per year over eight years a good deal to you? I’d argue that spending 17.6% of the cap on a guy that was in on 41% of the offence makes a world of sense to me, but I want to know what you think. What say you, Nation?
Everyone should take a minute and go see how cap screwed the Chicago Blackhawks are before applauding locking up over $20 mil per season on two players.
So the answer is to trade Connor then?
That’s clearly what I’m saying.
If you don’t sign him for what he’s worth then you don’t really have any other option.
Good point we don’t need other players. Connor and 22 AHL players, at least we get to watch Connor!
Connor gets a blank cheque. I’m not sure it would even be possible to overpay him. The tough one is going to be Draisaitl’s deal. If it looks like he’s going to shoot for the moon, you might have to start looking into what other teams would be willing to give up for him. While Leon had a great year, there’s some risk associated with him in that he played with Connor a lot. Aside from against Anaheim, we haven’t seen him carry his own line for an extended period of time. They’ll need to tread carefully.
How did it screw them. They make playoffs every year.
They are $3 mil over the cap and are still short a defensemen.
They’re not over the cap and which team isn’t short on Defence. Heck even Edmonton is short on Defence
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/blackhawks 3 mill over the cap.
This is why Oiler fans can’t have nice things…
“I wish we had a generational talent, that would solve everything!”
“Why won’t the reigning MVP take far less money than what he’s worth?! Oilers gonna be so screwed…”
Not saying he needs to sign for less than he’s worth. I just don’t believe that $2.5 mil more than any other contract in the league is a reasonable valuation for his second contract.
It’s almost like buying a house in 2017 would be a different price than in 1995.
Would you rather have Towes for 10.5m or McDavid for 13.25m. I think even the Hawks would take McDavid.
Ya screwed em….
Can only imagine how many cups they would have won without Kane and Toews lol
Which they won when they were on significantly cheaper contracts and the Blackhawks could sign other players to surround them.
Signed before they won in 2015. Don’t let facts get in the way of a good rant.
I was incorrect and I apologize. I got a bit caught up in the moment.
Since the contracts kicked in they have lost in the first round every year (okay, 2 years but still). the cups were won before the deals began…. which is part of the reason they got the deals, winning cups and all, but one was on ELC, the other 2 on a bridge deal where the team had flexibility.
Or am I out to lunch, which is totally possible since I am looking this up on my lunch break
You are right that they were signed before they won in 2015, but the salary didn’t kick in till 2015-16 after they won in 2015. And since the new salary kicked in, they hadn’t won a playoff series.
I am not against signing McDavid to 13M per for 8 years. But fact is the Hawks won the cup before the new salary kicked in.
they’ve got 3 stanley cups in recent years.
The Hawks won the Stanley Cup 3 times.
The one thing you don’t mention about your Chicago example is One of those players is not worth 10.5mil cap hit. I got no problem paying Kane 10.5 but toews at 10.5 is a huge mistake by Chicago. People we very critical of ebs putting up 51 pts and making 6 mil that pales in comparison to toews putting up 58pts and making 10.5mil. Granted toews 2 way game is much stronger than ebs but not enough to be paid that kind of money. Mcdavid is going to produce I don’t see his point totals taking a nose dive anytime soon. If we can get drai signed for 7-8mil I think we are looking good. Better than Chicago in regards to what there paying there top two players.
Toews is an elite centre. Gold medallist, Stanley cup winner, you name it.
Who the f is Eberle?
im not knocking what toews has done but if your fine paying 10.5 mil for 58 points that’s fine. But in comparison for there point totals toews has to step it up cause this is a result driven league and 10.5mil for 58 pts is not gonna cut it in this league. So clearly by your logic ebs 51 pts for 6 mil bad contract but toews at 10.5 mil for 58 pts equals a great contract. At the end of the day toews is over payed by at least 2 mil a year.
Calm down. The Pens won the cup in 2009 when two players lock up 17.4M of the 57M cap.
First year of Connor’s new contract we are looking at having $63 mil tied up in 13 players.
With Vegas coming in league revenues will b up. And that should raise the Cap significantly more than the 3 mil increase this year. Lets say the cap rises to 80. So if your numbers are correct , my 80 mil cap projection will b close, that would leave 17 mil to sign 8,9 players. That is very doable. And besides some big contracts could b moved by then
The people who are saying this is a bad signing and we won’t win the Stanley Cup, the one thing you’re forgetting what separates us from the rest of the league is that we get to watch McDavid every game.
I am happy with a $13.5 mill cap hit, but people have to stop comparing cap percentages with Malkin and Crosby as there is no way the cap will increase anywhere near the rate after they were signed. No more $8 mill jumps in the cap.
8 Years @ 13 or 13.25 Million
DO IT NOW!
Connor McDavid took a guy like Patrick Maroon and turned him into a 27 goal scorer. How many player could’ve done that? And how much is Patrick Maroon signed for ?
And how much will he ask for when his contract expires? If that number is higher than $1 mil the Oiler’s can’t afford him.
I love your positive outlook. If this is indeed true, locking Connor up for 8 years is terrific. I was very nervous he’d want a 5 year term
They can just bring in another player making $1.5 million and let Maroon walk. Have you not learned anything
Maroon is a great example of a guy punching way over his talent level, if I recall Dave Lumly once scored over 20 goals playing with Gretzky. Maroon will price himself off the team and go on to do nothing for his new team and we’ll add another guy who looks like nothing and put him with Connor and boom! Another 30 goal scorer is born. Look at how Pitt is rolling and that’s the model we’re following imho. Two top line centres a winger or two and a couple good dmen with a stud goalie
Just handcuffing themselves bye bye Leon, maroon and any decent free agents
I retract my previous statements. Sign Connor for $20 mil per year, he’s worth it.
Why stop there. Oilers/McDavid can petition the NHL and NHLPA to revise the agreement and just sign him to the max cap amount and just ice one player – McDavid.
@Bwar , whatever the hell that is . You talk about the Hawks being screwed. 3 cups in 7 years? Ya that really screwed them!!
And that’s the point. The Hawks won cups. For these contracts to have full value, the Oilers will have to also win cups. When 20-22 million are invested in 2 players salary cap problems will eventually happen. It’s being able to take advantage of the window available.
They won on cheaper contracts not the massive contracts they currently have. And every season the Hawks end up making more and more sacrifices because of those massive contracts.
Said it previously……. 8 years @ 12.5 = $100 million contract.
At 13.25 for Connor and who knows what for Drai, it really clears up why Chiarelli did not offer up those picks for Hamonic.
We will definitely need some good players drafted on their ELC to play with these guys because we won’t be able to pay big $
Good call.
Chicago seemed to still get cheap talent when they needed it. Chia will have it tough with the cap be he knows its coming. Hope he learned some lessons in Boston.
They signed Russel with the Money
Connor is worth $25mil/yr. Unfortunately a player making more then 10mil/yr, limits a teams long term chances at winning Stanley Cups. (Crosby and Malkin recognized this)
From the article:
When Crosby signed his second contract in 2007 for $8.7 million/year, that accounted for 17.3% of the cap at the time of signing (Cap: $50.3 million).
At $13.25 million, Connor’s contract would be valued at 17.6% of the cap.
I hope you recognize that.
Lets hope the scary cap rises 26 million over Connors time with the Oilers like it did with Crosby and the Pens over the last 10 years.
The deal was fair. Doesn’t make it easy to manage.
With Vegas in and the with the new Adidas jerseys being released the next two season . I’m pretty sure revenue is going to go up.
But the revenue will be divided into 31 teams, not 30. I don’t see the cap is going to go up more than 5%.
At 2007, the cap raised 15+% every year the previous two years, so it would be reasonable to expect the cap to raise about the same. The last two years, the cap raise about 3% every year. If we factor the % of raise into the equation, Crosby’s 17.3% will be about 15% in his first contract year. Conner’s 17.6% will be about 17% in his first contract year. Not huge but still a 2% difference.
Being said that, there is one big difference between the Crosby’s contract and McDavid’s contract. Crosby’s contract was 5 years, so only one UFA year. McDavid’s contract is 8 years, so 4 UFA years. I will have problem if Conner only signs for 5 years at 13M
The only flaw in your argument is the fact that the cap will not go up anywhere near the rate that it had previously. Those 8 million dollar jumps are a thing of the past.
When Crosby signed his most recent contract they were able to do 12 years. They signed him until he’s 38 and front loaded the hell out of it. Not so easy now with the limit of 8 years in length. Had the limit been 8 years back when Crosby signed in 2011 he would have a cap hit over 10 mil right now.
What I was saying in reference to Crosby and Malkin is they both could have gotten substantially more when they signed
It’s gonna be okay, guys. Connor just won the Hart, Ted Lindsay, and Art Ross. I remember the days when the Oilers couldn’t afford to pay superstars what they wanted and they all skipped town. Connor is worth every penny. He makes the players around him better. Worrying about how much money he makes is pointless. I’m looking forward to a 120-point season and a deep playoff run!
“does that mean Draisaitl’s agent will try to push his client closer to seven figures? The Oilers had better hope not.”
I suspect you may have meant to write EIGHT figures here. $1,000,000 would be seven figures, and I’d be perfectly fine with that 😉
Bah! You’re right. Will fix.
I’m totally fine with McDavid at $13.5m for 8 years. The kid’s worth every penny. It’s Drai at anything more than $8m per year that worries me.
What comparison is out there where Draisaitl is going to make 9 or $10 ml? There’s not . I’m sure he won’t make over 8/year,
The comparisons don’t matter…you can’t low ball him because then HE WILL consider offer sheets…Chia has to start at least close to what Drai wants or risk offending him…that is the issue. Lets just say Drai asks for 11 what does Chia counter with 6?
Yes. You counter with 6 and meet in the middle. Many contracts have been signed that way.
Offer sheets paying Leon more then we’re willing to pay well give us loads of wicked draft picks! Take the money and run is what I’d do and keep Nuge for 2c
I’ll take the post 98 bullet.
PAY THE MAN
how dare you!
I don’t hate the deal, he got what he’s worth. it would’ve been nice if he took a bit more of a discount for the team like Stamkos did. Not complaining, it’s just gonna ring a little hollow next time Connor talks about how the team first.
Stamkos did take a bit of a discount in his first contract out of entry level considering the points he was putting up (I think he was only around 12.5% of the cap at the time). That was creative contract though, he signed a 5 year bridge and they dropped his last year by 2.5 mil giving them cap relief.
Lets be real though, Stammer is not better than Crosby so they weren’t paying him more. McDavid on the other hand just won 3 nice trophies and he’s only 20 years old.
You all need to wait to see the structure of the contract. I understand it is different, there is some questions about if the NHL will allow it. Especially a provision regarding the posible lockout in 20-21. Like the Russell contract you need to pay attention to the details. And remember I posted the term first and the 13.25 mil a year, but the cap hit may not be that high. Waiting to see the details.
McDavid is worth the money, but this is what I was referencing when I said that although most teams don’t even have a “Golden Window”, the Oilers most opportune window is closing. When Connor signs that contract for 13,25, boy is it ever going to slam shut. The Oilers will still be in a good standard competitive window, but it’ll be a heck of a lot more complicated after this season. Especially if Leon comes in north of 8million. 21million for those two in 18/19 will be a lot more complicated than the 7 it was this year. Hmm, signing Russell for 4×4?
A few key facts about Crosby’s current contract which was his 3rd. Signed in June 2012 after he played only 63 games in the prior 2 regular seasons due to concussions. This was before the lock out and new CBA so contracts could be 12 years and Crosby went for the max term. The contract is front end loaded so annual salary was $12 million in its first year which was 2013-14 one year after he signed it. The salary steps down starting this past season. The last 3 years of the deal are at $3 million per season. Considering he will be 36-38 during those 3 seasons, it may be reasonable to assume that after his concussions, Crosby and the Pens might have had doubts he would play the full term of his contract. His average salary during the high paying 9 years of the contract is $10.6 million which is 16.5% of the cap in the year in which the contract became effective. So because at age 25 he could sign a 12 year deal with the 3 years when he might not be playing (see Hossa), it appears he was being much more charitable than what McDavid when truly the circumstances cannot be compared. It is in large part because of contracts like Hossa’s, Crosby’s and some others that the NHL owners negotiated terms of no more than 8 years, though they were trying for 5 year maximums.
Made me dizzy bro. Summarize.
Crosby could offer the Pens a seemingly big discount on his AAV by taking a low salary in his last 3 years of the contract well past his prime. With an 8 year maximum term limit, McDavid will still be in his prime at the end of his contract.
Numbers aside we all know how amazing 97 is and in saying so we can all expect him to be the humble kid he is and I know he will up his game to whole other level.
The scary thing isn’t the money. It how much better he will be on the ice. Scary good.
TSN is reporting that Draisaitls camp is asking for $10 million per year. Two players making $23 million per year will not bring a stanley cup. just saying
Ya thats how neg. Start. Agent says 10 , Chia says 6.5…they likely settle on 7.75-8
I wish he signed for cheaper but would any of us?!? Team friendly contract that proves he wants to play here what more can a guy ask for? Hopefully Leon signs an. 8×8 and Oilernation we’ll be celebrating cups for years!
I’m not sure if Leon has shown enough consistency to earn a 8 yr contract
McDavid deserves every dollar and in fact anything lower than 15 million is a bonus.
McDavids contract isn’t the one to worry about its Draisiatl’s contract.
If he and his agent are asking anything above 7.5 then you broom Draisiatl.
This is why you have an experience GM, it’s his job to make the team better not McDavids job to take less.
Why is the comparison to Crosby? Crosby won a cup before his contract, so did Kane, Toews, and Kopitar.
Let’s compare to Ovi instead because like him Mcdavid hasn’t won anything yet. Great individual player and I love to watch him but it’s a team game and 1 guy doesn’t win the Stanley cup.