Photo Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

Evan Bouchard, nine games, and a potential expansion draft

Despite being 19 years old and looking like he’s 30, the Oilers Evan Bouchard is playing good, like, really good.

It’s not often that teams bring in rookie defencemen right out of the junior leagues and it’s not often they step into the NHL as an effective player.

Evan Bouchard, only five games into his NHL career, is an effective player for the Oilers now.

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Take the game against the Nashville Predators for example. McLellan and the coaching staff played Bouchard in 14:02 of time on ice in all situations leaving him with a 72.41 per cent CF rating (+21/-8), the best on the team.

That number is elevated due to his 2:34 powerplay time which saw him boast a 87.5 per cent CF, going +7/-1.

Bouchard has yet to notch his first NHL point, but it’s not without trying having fired eight shots on net in five games — third on the team. One will eventually go in.

Through last night’s game, Bouchard has played 56 minutes of 5v5 TOI in five games boasting a positive corsi ratio of +54/-43, good for 55.67 per cent.

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On top of that, Bouchard WOWY (with you/without you) numbers show that any defenceman the Oilers have on their roster is better with Bouchard, than without him, at least when it comes to shot metrics.

Evan Bouchard 5v5 WOWY CF stats, c/o Natural Stat Trick

The young defender is passing the eye test, too. He’s spending time on the powerplay and he is moving the puck very well up and down the ice — something we knew to expect from him.

Arguably, he might be the best PP1 defender the Oilers have. He moves the puck as well, if not better than anyone else and he’s got a strong shot.

The Nine Game Mark

With five games under his belt, the Oilers have a tough decision ahead of them as they need to decide if Bouchard is good enough to stick in the league all year, or if they should return him to the London Knights.

Truth be told, he will light up the Ontario Hockey League if he returns. If he’s already showing this well in the NHL as a rookie, how will he do in the OHL? My guess is very good.

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If he stays, however, it could cause long-term implications on the Oilers and the makeup of the roster.

When the next expansion draft happens when Seattle gets their team (as it seems many in the league expect), the Oilers will likely lose a defenceman, depending on the year they enter the league.

If Seattle enters the league in June 2020, we wouldn’t have to protect him as he has played two or less pro seasons.

If they enter June 2021, then we would have to protect Bouchard as he would be out of his entry-level deal and would have over two years of pro hockey under his belt.

In saying that, the Oilers would likely lose one of Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson or Bouchard if Seatlle enters in 2021-22. However, if they enter in 2020-21, the Oilers would be safe.

The latest we know is that the team is aiming to play by 2020-21, meaning should he stay up this season, the team would be in a tough position.

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After all, it might not be until 2022-23 when a new team could enter the league and that would make the point mute, forcing him to be protected.

The Oilers will be facing a tough decision in the coming weeks.

Do you return Bouchard to the OHL and take away a potential risk of losing a top-four defenceman in the expansion draft, or do you keep him in the NHL, where he is starting to show he can already play?

My take

It goes without saying the next four games Bouchard plays in will be the tell-tale sign on what’s to come for him.

I’m of the mentality that if Bouchard plays and the coaching staff is comfortable playing him, then he should stay. The expansion draft is still a few years away and the Oilers would have time to make decisions on the teams back-end.

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In theory, when the expansion draft comes, the team could go the eight skater route protecting Lucic (NMC), Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse and Bouchard.

This of course, could be complicated if the team decides to keep Yamamoto up in the NHL this season, forcing a tough decision to be made. It would also leave Pulujarvi out of the mix which is less than ideal.

Only time will tell what will happen and who knows — this roster makeup could be a lot different by the time Seattle enters the league.

  • OnDaWagon

    If Bouchard can make Oscar Klefbom look useful, then he is a magician.
    That “value” contract of Klefbom don’t look like a value after all. EXPOSE him, and hope Seattle does remove the virus from the Oilers defense. OVERRATED. OVERPLAYED. OVERPAID. After this year, 4 more years of this awful d-man. Get rid of Mr. Blunder ASAP.

  • Dallas Eakins Hair

    Bouchard has played well, but he still has areas of his game that need work, much like Bear does but as with both you can see the possibilities to come from them, both can let it go from the point, both can carry the puck up the ice and both have some work to do in our end on their game. If you ask me, I think it is detrimental to have Bouchard up here if he is going to be sitting down the stretch. Unless the Oilers are going to waive someone or make a trade it means we have someone sitting, if the Oiler are in the hunt for a spot down the road and need points they are going to go with vets on the back end one would assume. But you can have everyone sit for long lengths of time, other wise you have no idea what your going to get when they do get into a game.

    Only way I see Bouchard staying up is a trade or if someone gets waived. If I was going to trade a D man Benning is at the front of my list but Benning is horrible 98% of the time so you would have to package him with someone unless you waive him and hope some GM that has never seen Benning play takes him or Benning sails thru the waiver wire and goes down to Bakersfield. Garrison could go to the waiver wire, but I think he gets plucked off,. cheap contract and he isnt bad, yes he had a horrible game but Benning had had many and he is still here….lol

    I’d rather have Bouchard get sent down and play and get lots of ice time and kick ass down their keep his confidence up and next year come into camp and see if he takes a spot.

    • Kneedroptalbot

      Lets get Bouchard back to London, then hopefully he gets selected to the World Jr tournament. He will develop and gain confidence. Next year he will be ready for a full time role if all goes as planned.

  • IPeeOil

    Completely irrelevant if they don’t start winning some games. Sneaking a point or two here and there does not equal success. Our d sucks, plain and simply. Fight it, deny it…scream and yell I’m wrong, doesn’t change anything.

    • fasteddy

      I don’t believe it’s the personnel….it’s working as a unit. Watching Nash last night they almost always seem to have tight gaps between their forwards and D, and their puck support is off the charts compared to Edm. Way too often we are outnumbered around the puck in my opinion.

      • Kneedroptalbot

        Lets be realistic, Nashville is a Stanley Cup contender with one of the top 3 D-units in the league. Exceptional goaltending and one of the lowest GA in the league. Edmonton played a decent game against them, its a process to be able to acheive the consistency and personnel to play with the best teams in the league. Right now Edmonton is trying to develop players and be competetive every night.

  • 18% body fat

    If he goes back to just for than yamo should too.

    It means you aren’t keeping the best players and you are protecting from expansion. Why not go full out on it as well.

    Don’t have to protect either. Than protect

    Connor drai lucic Strome pulijarvi
    nuge khaira or rattie


  • Abagofpucks

    From where i sit Bouchard is going to make the team this year he’s got the smarts and learns fast. His skating and passing and ability to read plays going up ice are 2nd to none on this team, by mid season i wouldnt doubt he’s top 4 i say keep him here.

    • Blackbyrd82

      Poise, vision, passing, and shot might be the best on this D corps already, but to say his skating is second to none is insane. Nurse, Russel, and Klefbom are all much better skaters than Bouchard.