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Photo Credit: Walter Tychnowicz-USA TODAY Sports

Morning Report: Oilers vs. Golden Knights (9 March)

Hello Nation,

This is the Oilers Morning Report, a stats-heavy, opinion-based review of the previous night’s game. We’ve all read the wrap-ups, watched the highlights, and digested the game. Whether it’s gazing to the heavens, begging the Hockey Gods for answers as to why the Edmonton Oilers lost, or looking for more content to bask in the glory of another Oilers victory, that’s what this is here for.

Here is the review for the @Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights on Monday 9 March.

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CF CA CF% SCF% HDCF-HDCA xGF%
1st Period 10 19 34.48 18.75 2-5 19.25
2nd Period 22 26 45.83 44.44 4-7 35.15
3rd Period 17 18 48.57 44.44 4-5 40.83
All attempts are at 5v5.
Corsi (CF, CA) is the volume of attempts towards the net (goals, shots on net, misses, blocks); CF% is share of attempts for the team.
Scoring Chances (SCF) are shot attempts with a value of 2 or higher (from the green- 3 and/or pink- 2 area or off a rebound or a rush).
High Danger Chances (HDCF-CA) are shot attempts with a value of 3 or higher.
Expected Goals (xGF%) is based off of combination of shot attempts, shot quality (Low/Medium/High Danger), and shooting percentage (both team and individual).

A more comprehensive explanation can be found at naturalstattrick.com


Breakdown

In his somewhat last minute deployment onto the second line, Gaetan Haas performed exceptionally, leading the team with both a 64.29CF%, and 57.14 SCF% and second with a 58.80 xGF%, behind linemate Tyler Ennis. The second line of Ennis-Haas-Zack Kassian played the most 5v5 minutes against Alec Martinez (5:19), with a healthy dose of both Shea Theodore (4:58) and Nick Holden (4:55) and the Golden Knights’ line of Jonathan Marchessault-Paul Stastny-Riley Smith, and managing a ~86 CF%.

As he continues to work his way back into top minutes on the backend, Oscar Klefbom had an up-and-down game: he led all Oilers defensemen with a 52.63 CF%, but finished with very poor 23.84 xGF%, 36.84 SCF%, and 22.22 HDCF% in 20:25 5v5 minutes against mostly the Marchessault-Stastny-Smith line, meaning that he and Adam Larsson were giving up more fairly high quality attempts against than they were generating.

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But the story was once again Mikko Koskinen, who was stellar stopping 39 of the 40 5v5 shots he faced, 15 of which were High Danger chances and 10 Medium Danger. The Oilers earned a point because of his performance, undoubtedly.

Final Thought

The Oilers are in a bit of an offensive swoon right now, but they have two things going for them: 1) a fairly weak Pacific division and; 2) elite goaltending.

Since the start of February, Mikko Koskinen has played in 10 games and has a 5v5 SV% of .945– which ranks second only to Anton Khudobin’s .946 amongst goaltenders with at least 10 games– he is also riding a 6.28 GSAA (5th), 81 HD shots against (11th), with stunning High Danger counts of .901 HDSV% (anything above .900 is really good) and 6.13 HDGSAA (2nd to only Corey Crawford). He is giving the Oilers a chance every night, and as much as many people love the passion and “battle level” of Mike Smith, Koskinen is just simply the better goaltender, and gives the team a chance every single game.

All that being said, the Golden Knights are the best 5v5 possession team, so being dominated the way they were wasn’t entirely unexpected, and it was only exacerbated by the fact that the Oilers were without one of their best players in Connor McDavid.

On to: Winnipeg.

What to Expect:

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CF% SCF% HDCF% xGF% Goals/60 Road PP% Road PK% SH% SV%
48.57 (21st) 46.49 (29th) 40.63 (31st) 43.69 (31st) 2.34 (20th) 19.5 (15th) 78.4 (20th) 7.89 (18th) .925 (9th)

The Winnipeg Jets are not a good offensive team, and are certainly only in the playoff race due to elite goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck, who sports a HDGSAA of 7.51 for a team that hangs him out to dry in that respect. They also struggle with generating any chances in the High Danger area, which might actually make this a good matchup for Mike Smith to get the start in if Dave Tippett is looking to give Koskinen a rest after a relatively heavy workload in his last three starts.

Though the Jets are technically a playoff team, they’re a struggle club limping to the end of the season, so this could be a good opportunity for the Oilers to find a bit of their offensive groove.

Twitter: @NicklausGood

Traditional stats courtesy of nhl.com | Advanced counts courtesy of naturalstattrick.com | Isolated heat maps courtesy of hockeyviz.com