When your starting goaltender has secured shutouts in three of his seven starts, it almost feels wrong to be critical of his game.
But in the case of Edmonton Oilers netminder Stuart Skinner, there’s some you can find. To put it simply, his four playoff losses have come in games in which he’s allowed one of more goals, while securing all three of his wins in shutout efforts.
It’s left him with a .890 save percentage that’s ballooned from his terrible start in Games 1 and 2 against the Los Angeles Kings, allowing 11 goals against in losses. And while there’s no denying blanking an opponent is a great feeling, the Oilers are surely hoping Skinner can begin to find some middle ground.
“I definitely like where he’s at. I’d like to see a game play out in the win column where he allows a goal, to be honest, to make sure that’s possible, but of course it is,” said Oilersnation analyst Devan Dubnyk during Friday’s edition of Oilersnation After Dark. “I said at the start of the playoffs that I think they’re going to need him if they win a Stanley Cup, but I didn’t expect Picks to go 6-0, either. It’s a confusing, confusing scenario, but I think there’s still opportunity here.”
Highs and lows are nothing new to Skinner. His struggles early in the 2024 playoffs against the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks saw him benched in favour of Calvin Pickard, who split Game 4 and 5 against the Canucks, only for Skinner to return in a big way.
While he went 5-3 in the early games he played last year, he had a .877 save percentage, going 9-6 with a .914 save percentage the rest of the way. And in these playoffs we’re seeing much of the same from him. 11 goals against in Game 1 and 2 losses against the Kings gave him an .810 save percentage, but since he’s returned, he’s gone 3-2 with three shutouts and a .927 save percentage.
The long and short of it is Skinner has either had save percentage of 1.000 and the Oilers win, or one below .833 and the Oilers have lost. All the while, Pickard had put together an impressive set of games in his own right in these playoffs, going 6-0 with a .888 save percentage.
If Skinner’s unable to find that middle ground and starts to falter again when Pickard returns from injury, the Oilers could be faced with a tough decision, Dubnyk said.
“I think (Skinner has) definitely earned himself a leash if he continutes to play solidly and put some wins together, then I think (Pickard’s) going to have a chance if he falters a bit,” he said. ” I still don’t think (Skinner’s game is) completely there, just because of (Game 1 against Dallas) and the Vegas game — we’re close, and we’re seeing what we want — and at the end of the day, the Oilers want Stuart Skinner to be their guy and at the top of his game, because his ceiling is higher than Calvin Pickard’s.
“I feel bad saying anything like that about Calvin Pickard, because he’s been unbelievable in these playoffs, but that’s just the way it is.”
Skinner is expected to be back between the pipes for Game 3 Sunday afternoon.
Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.