Leon Draisaitl’s incredible start to the 2024-25 season roared on Tuesday night, setting up Connor McDavid for the game-opening goal, and scoring the game-winner himself.
Well, it was an own goal, but his work taking a beautiful Darnell Nurse stretch pass and getting to the Tampa Bay net was enough for a Lightning defender to kick it in for him. They don’t ask how, but how many.
And speaking of how many, Draisaitl is on pace for a career-high in goals — nearly 60 on the season — and nobody is talking about it. Last night, he scored his 20th goal in the year, his ninth straight season doing so, tying Wayne Gretzky, and one more 20-goal season away from tying Jari Kurri and Mark Messier for the franchise record.
Draisaitl now leads the league in goals and is on pace for 59 on the season, which would set a career high toppling the 55 goals he scored in 2021-22. But what’s impressive about Draisaitl’s run is just how he’s scoring goals.
Over his career, Draisaitl has always made his mark on the power play racking up 150 goals, and since he entered the league in 2014-15, the only player with more goals there is none other than Alex Ovechkin. It’s been to the benefit of the Oilers, to say the least, but it’s also been used as an attempt to slight him from opposing fanbases and pundits. “Power play” merchant has been thrown around all too much.
He’s still been a good goal scorer at even strength, racking up 208 career goals there, but that mark sits 15th among players since he entered the league. This is where the slights get used, too, but what Leon Draisiatl is doing this season should silence his doubters.
Of his 20 goals so far this season, 16 have come with the game at even strength, putting him on pace for 47 goals there for a full 82-game schedule. Since the turn of the century, only two players have scored more goals with the game even in a season: Steven Stamkos, with 48 in 2011-12, and Auston Matthews with 51 in 2023-24. Stamkos scored 60 total that year, while Matthews scored 69.
And while he’s scoring at an incredible rate at even-strength, the same can’t be said for the power play, where Draisaitl has scored just four goals this season, pacing for a dozen over the year. That would be his lowest power play goal total in seven years. His man-advantage shooting percentage is right around his previous career average, but what’s noticeable is the dip in his shot rates. Having taken 18.97, 19.88 and 18.76 shots on goal per hour in each of the last three seasons, Draisaitl is taking just 10.59 this season.
There’s no denying the Oilers’ power play as a whole hasn’t quite been itself so far this season, but the group is simply too talented to not figure it out. Signs are there of them starting to figure it out, too. They’ve scored five power play goals in their last six games.
Say, for example, his power play shot rate increases, his shooting percentage there stays the same, and he scores 23 goals on the season — his average over the previous four seasons? Assuming he maintains his even-strength scoring rate over this time, Draisaitl is all of a sudden staring at a 70-goal campaign, which would be the first since Alexander Mogilny scored 76 in 1992-93.
It would be an incredible feat, no doubt, and the list of players who could realistically do so in today’s NHL is minuscule, but Draisaitl is absolutely one on it.
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist, making up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.