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A decade’s worth of NHL Draft picks selected between 18-22nd overall

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baggedmilk
1 year ago
With the NHL Draft coming up tomorrow, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the last decade’s worth of picks that have gone in the #19 slot to see if there’s anything we can learn. Did it work? I invited you to find out with me.
Heading into the NHL Entry Draft, this is probably the least amount of attention I’ve put into reading about prospects than I have since Nuge was drafted. Seeing as the Oilers have the 20th overall pick — it’s actually the 19th overall pick because the Coyotes cheated — I want to see what kind of player has gone around this slot over the past decade. As far as I see it, there are holes in the roster that need filling now, and moving the pick could help remedy that, but, on the other hand, our prospect pool is still shallow around here, and moving a 19th overall pick does nothing in term of stocking the shelves with cheap skill down the line. Is there a right or wrong answer? I don’t know but I was hoping that history could be our guide.

2011:

GP:GAPtsPIM
18ChicagoMark McNeillCPrince Albert Raiders [WHL]20000
19EdmontonOscar KlefbomDFarjestads BK Karlstad [SEL]3783412215674
20PhoenixConnor MurphyDU.S. National Development Team [USHL]4942882110281
21OttawaStefan NoesenRPlymouth Whalers [OHL]205312354122
22TorontoTyler BiggsRU.S. National Development Team [USHL]
Hits: Klefbom! If the Oilers can grab a contributor like Klefbom again in that spot then I think we’ll be in good shape. The problem, however, is that it takes some time for these kinds of guys to be NHL-ready.
Misses: Tyler Biggs, where are you?
Thoughts: This grouping shows that you need your scouts to be prepared and some luck on your side because the picks at #18 and #22 have obviously not played out.

2012:

GP:GAPtsPIM
18ChicagoTeuvo TeravainenLJokerit Helsinki [SM-liiga]4499620830476
19Tampa BayAndrei VasilevskiyGUfa Tolpar (Russia)3020151526
20PhiladelphiaScott LaughtonCOshawa Generals [OHL]3745373126211
21CalgaryMark JankowskiCStanstead College (Quebec)25340357565
22PittsburghOlli MaattaDLondon Knights [OHL]4682999128124
Hits: How can you not give this one to Vasilevskiy? The guy just won back-to-back Stanley Cups and looks like he’ll be one of the league’s premier keepers for the foreseeable future.
Misses: None really, though, I’ll admit that I expected Olli Maatta to be better.
Thoughts: A lot of GP amongst this group of five with three of them playing more than the former first overall pick, Nail Yakupov (350GP).

2013:

GPGAPtsPIM
18San JoseMirco MuellerDEverett Silvertips [WHL]1855232861
19ColumbusKerby RychelLWindsor Spitfires [OHL]433111419
20DetroitAnthony ManthaRVal d’Or Foreurs [QMJHL]31699103202196
21TorontoFrederik GauthierCRimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]17013183147
22CalgaryEmile PoirierLGatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]80112
Hits: Anthony Mantha gets the nod from 2013.
Misses: Suck it, Calgary.
Thoughts: The 2013 group shows just how much of a coin flip the draft can be as you go along and it makes me wonder how much discussion the Oilers will be having in regards to actually moving the pick for more immediate help.

2014:

GPGAPtsPIM
18MinnesotaAlex TuchRU.S. National Under-18 Team [USHL]255617813971
19Tampa BayTony DeAngeloDSarnia Sting [OHL]2062482106176
20ChicagoNick SchmaltzCGreen Bay Gamblers [USHL]3015512718268
21St. LouisRobby FabbriCGuelph Storm [OHL]246566612294
22PittsburghKasperi KapanenRKalPa Kuopio [SM-liiga]242526812062
Hits: Honestly, there’s a lot to like in this group and I could see any of these players being value pieces to an Oilers depth chart.
Misses: Tony DeAngelo will now be considered a miss but that’s only because of his alleged shitbag personality.
Thoughts: If the Oilers can grab a guy that can contribute 200+ games on their roster in their draft+7 season then this would probably be considered a success. Here’s hoping.

2015:

GPGAPtsPIM
18OttawaThomas ChabotDSaint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]25435115150124
19DetroitEvgeny SvechnikovRCape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL]41571220
20MinnesotaJoel Eriksson EkCFarjestads BK Karlstad [SweHL]26643539688
21OttawaColin WhiteCU.S. National Development Team [USHL]20033558887
22WashingtonIlya SamsonovGMagnitogorsk-2 (Russia Jrs.)450112
Hits: Thomas Chabot is going to be a mainstay on the Senators blueline for a very long time, or until Eugene Melnyk decides he doesn’t want to pay him anymore.
Misses: I’ll say Svechnikov just because I need an answer, though, he did play a career-high in GP for the Red Wings this past season with 21 games.
Thoughts: Another mixed bag, people.

2016:

GPGAPtsPIM
18WinnipegLogan StanleyDWindsor Spitfires [OHL]3713426
19NY IslandersKieffer BellowsLU.S. National Development Team [USHL]225166
20DetroitDennis CholowskiDChilliwack Chiefs [BCHL]10410172726
21CarolinaJulien GauthierRVal d’Or Foreurs [QMJHL]47291122
22PhiladelphiaGerman RubtsovCRussia U-18 team40000
Hits:
Misses:
Thoughts:

2017:

GPGAPtsPIM
18BostonUrho VaakanainenDJyP HT Jyvaskyla [SM-liiga]160222
19San JoseJosh NorrisCU.S. National Development Team [USHL]5917183513
20St. LouisRobert ThomasCLondon Knights [OHL]16922658742
21NY RangersFilip ChytilCZlin ZPS HC [Czech]18634377132
22EdmontonKailer YamamotoRSpokane Chiefs [WHL]10520325242
Hits: YAMOOOOOO! Hopefully…
Misses: Too early to call someone a bust at this point tbh.
Thoughts: At four years post-draft, we’re starting to see how much time it takes some of these guys to land in the NHL and it’s something to considering when planning out what the Oilers do with their own pick. Would they be happy to wait for three or four years for a player to start contributing, or would it make more sense to make a trade for someone that can help now?

2018:

GPGAPtsPIM
18ColumbusLiam FoudyCLondon Knights [OHL]260556
19PhiladelphiaJay O’BrienCThayer Academy (US H.S.)
20Los AngelesRasmus KupariCKarpat [SM-liiga]71012
21San JoseRyan MerkleyDGuelph Storm [OHL]
22NY RangersK’Andre MillerDU.S. National Under-18 Team [USHL]53571220
Hits: N/A
Misses: N/A
Thoughts: At 53 GP with the Rangers, K’Andre Miller leads the pack from the 2018 crew, but it’s still way too early to make a call on any of these kids.

2019:

GPGAPtsPIM
18DallasThomas HarleyDMississauga Steelheads [OHL]00000
19OttawaLassi ThomsonDKelowna Rockets [WHL]
20WinnipegVille HeinolaDLukko Rauma [SM-liiga]131456
21PittsburghSamuel PoulinRSherbrooke Phoenix [QMJHL]
22Los AngelesTobias BjornfotDDjurgarden (Sweden Jrs.)3615614
Hits: N/A
Misses: N/A
Thoughts: Tobias Bjornfot with the early lead in GP here. Will he be the Google of this crew or the Ask Jeeves?

2020:

18New JerseyDawson MercerCChicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL]
19NY RangersBraden SchneiderDBrandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
20New JerseyShakir MukhamadullinDUfa Salavat Yulayev [KHL]
21ColumbusYegor ChinakhovROmsk Jrs. (Russia)
22WashingtonHendrix LapierreCChicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL]
Hits: N/A
Misses: N/A
Thoughts: Way too early to get a read on any of these kids.

THE WRAP…

As I was putting this list together, all I could think about is how the NHL Draft has and always will be a mix of pure luck and educated guesswork, and as you go further along in the first round, the gap between a ‘sure thing’ and a ‘who knows’ can be pretty wide. The point is that you never really know what you’re going to get. And as you can see, over the past 10 years, there has been a blend of forwards and defencemen selected with the 18-22 range and the results have been a mixed bag. Obviously, some of these picks are still way too early in their careers to make the call one way or the other, but putting this together does show that there’s no such thing as a sure thing. What does all of this mean? I have no idea. All we can really do is hope and trust that the Oilers’ amateur scouts will get this right and that Holland’s decision will be what’s best for the organization now and in the future. Personally, I doubt that Holland will move the first rounder considering he has no picks until the 4th round, but I do kinda wish he would trade it as part of a package for someone that can help right now. Will it happen? We shall see.
What do you guys think? Does seeing this list affect your thinking about what to do with the 20th 19th overall pick?

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