An early look at the 2020-21 Bakersfield Condors

A few weeks ago, I took a look at what Ken Holland’s second off-season at the helm of the @Edmonton Oilers organization was going to look like.

Obviously, given the COVID-19 pandemic, things have changed. We don’t know when or if the season is going to resume, we don’t know if playoffs will be played, or if a Stanley Cup will be awarded. No matter what, though, there’ll be an off-season, with a draft, trades, and free agency. The difficult thing to predict is what the salary cap will be set at.

It was expected that the salary cap would rise next season, but, as Bill Daly said, losing regular season and possibly playoff games will decrease the revenue generated by the league and, as a result, the salary cap.

I didn’t expect a big free-agent splash to be on Holland’s radar this summer, but a lower-than-expected salary cap ceiling would make it harder for him to find upgrades at key positions, like the third-line centre and 1B goaltender. Everybody else in the league going into a cap crunch would also make it more difficult for Holland to off-load a problematic contract like Kris Russell to open up room on the roster.

Regardless, this is all completely up in the air right now. There are plenty of dominos left to fall and we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Rather than focusing on the Oilers’ off-season, I want to take a look at the plans surrounding their AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors.

There’s been quite a bit of Condors-related talk over the past week. First, there was discussion around whether or not the team would sign 2016 draft picks Filip Berglund and Markus Niemelainen and bring them over to North America. Next, there was the report that 2019 first-round pick Philip Broberg will likely be staying put in Sweden for his 19-year-old season. We also learned about three players the Condors signed to AHL deals, Liam Folkes, Janis Jaks, and Blake Christiansen. 

Bakersfield got decimated this season by key players being called up to the Oilers. Big picture, this is a good thing for the organization because it means they’re internally developing talent, but it was a rough time for the Condors themselves.

We saw Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, and Kailer Yamamoto all graduate to the NHL over the course of the 2019-20 season. Next year, we’ll surely see Evan Bouchard make that jump and we could very likely see Tyler Benson do it too. That wave of talent graduating opens up opportunities on the roster for other prospects to develop.

Internally, Ryan McLeod and Dmitri Samorukov will be looked upon to take on bigger roles in their sophomore seasons. McLeod produced five goals and 23 points in 56 games and has drawn praise for his defensive game. It would be great to see McLeod take a step forward offensively next season in a larger role. The same goes for Samorukov, who becomes Edmonton’s top defensive prospect on the team with Jones, Bear, and Bouchard graduated. He should be logging big minutes on Bakersfield’s blueline next year. Both Ostap Safin and Kirill Maximov will also hopefully improve after forgettable rookie seasons.

In terms of talent joining the roster, the biggest name will be 2019 second-round pick Raphael Lavoie, who will be making the jump from the QMJHL to the AHL next year. With Yamamoto and possibly Benson graduated, Lavoie will likely have a top-six forward spot waiting for him. Hopefully, we also see Berglund join the Condors next season. There’s a big hole on the right side of Bakersfield’s blueline from Bouchard graduating and Joel Persson getting dealt for him to fill.

As I said earlier, there’s quite a bit up in the air and the things that Holland does for the Oilers this summer will have ripple effects on the Condors. That said, we can still get a pretty good idea of what Bakersfield’s roster could look like in 2020-21…

@Tyler Benson – @Cooper Marody – @Raphael Lavoie
@Joseph Gambardella – @Ryan McLeod – @Josh Currie
Ostap Safin – Brad Malone – Kirill Maximov
Blake Christenson – Cam Hebig – Liam Fowlkes

@William Lagesson – Filip Berglund
Dmitri Samorukov – Logan Day
Keegan Lowe – Janis Jaks

Stuart Skinner
Olivier Rodrigue

I have Benson starting the season in the AHL because I don’t expect him to be cracking the Oilers’ roster off the hop in order to play in the team’s bottom-six. But, at some point in the year, a spot will open up for Benson and I don’t think he’ll be returning to Bakersfield. Otherwise, Bakersfield’s roster should feature plenty of opportunities for sophomores like Samorukov and McLeod and rookies like Lavoie and Berglund. They won’t be the start-studded roster of a couple of years ago, but they’ll still be interesting to follow.