BLUE LINE FINDS
Fans of the Edmonton Oilers have been talking about the need to acquire a bonafide top-pairing defenseman for months, for years actually, and debating who GM Peter Chiarelli should be setting his sights on this off-season.
In recent months, several names have been tossed around as targets, be it through free agency or by way of trade. Among them, Justin Faulk, Travis Hamonic and Tyson Barrie as top-pairing guys and Sami Vatanen and Jason Demers as secondary finds.
While we can debate the merits of all of them in terms of fit and suitability, they’re all legit NHL defenseman, and not one them was selected in the first round of the Entry Draft – Faulk tops the list at 37th overall pick and Demers is at the bottom, taken 186th.
It’s another reminder, with the Oilers entering the 2016 draft with the fourth overall pick, that there are blue-chippers to be had with later picks among the guesses and misses if scouting staffs do their homework and the cards fall the right way.
GETTING IT RIGHT
Finding the next Faulk (37th), Hamonic (53rd), Barrie (64th), Vatanen (106th) or Demers (186th) obviously isn’t going to address the holes on Edmonton’s blue line here and now, but there’s no time like the present for Bob Green and his scouting staff to start uncovering finds like them – maybe with that second-round pick (32nd) this year. They’re out there.
In the last decade, just seven defensemen have been taken with top-three picks (a total of 30 selections). They are Aaron Ekblad (first by Florida in 2014), Ryan Murray (second by Columbus in 2012), Erik Gudbranson (third by Florida in 2010), Victor Hedman (second by Tampa Bay in 2009), Drew Doughty (second by LA in 2008) and Erik Johnson (first overall by St. Louis in 2006).
Going into this draft, there’s eight defensemen rated in the top-30 by ISS – the numbers will vary depending on which scouting service list you lean most heavily on – Jacob Chychrun (eighth), Mikhail Sergachev (10th), Olli Juolevi (11th), Jake Bean (16th), Dante Fabbro (19th), Charlie McAvoy (23rd), Logan Stanley (25th) and Jacob Moverare (29th).
The trick is separating the hits from the misses in that top tier of draftees. It’s just as important, as the Faulk-Hamonic-Barrie cluster shows, to do likewise deeper into the draft. The Oilers managed that with Brandon Davidson, getting him 162nd overall in 2010.
A FIVE-YEAR SAMPLING
Here’s some examples of hits outside the top three – not all are top-pairing guys, but many are — and much later, from the 2008-2012 drafts. I’ve left out more recent drafts because we don’t know yet how all the defensemen taken after 2012 will turn out.
2012
5 | 236 | 19 | 73 | 92 | 54 | ||
6 | 236 | 23 | 69 | 92 | 108 | ||
7 | 152 | 19 | 25 | 44 | 63 | ||
9 | 211 | 23 | 49 | 72 | 151 | ||
22 | 165 | 16 | 41 | 57 | 46 | ||
60 | 123 | 6 | 32 | 38 | 54 | ||
78 | 66 | 17 | 29 | 46 | 24 |
2011
4 | 274 | 9 | 60 | 69 | 155 | ||
9 | 260 | 34 | 92 | 126 | 141 | ||
10 | 263 | 15 | 39 | 54 | 58 | ||
12 | 124 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 30 | ||
19 | 107 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 10 |
2010
12 | 414 | 34 | 144 | 178 | 97 | ||
23 | 125 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 50 | ||
37 | 326 | 49 | 106 | 155 | 138 | ||
66 | 202 | 12 | 34 | 46 | 340 | ||
131 | 141 | 21 | 77 | 98 | 62 | ||
162 | 63 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 |
2009
6 | 415 | 76 | 133 | 209 | 268 | ||
14 | 460 | 28 | 110 | 138 | 300 | ||
16 | 417 | 35 | 135 | 170 | 73 | ||
64 | 264 | 40 | 113 | 153 | 87 | ||
94 | 252 | 22 | 64 | 86 | 160 | ||
102 | 227 | 16 | 46 | 62 | 106 | ||
106 | 194 | 29 | 69 | 98 | 78 |
2008
4 | 459 | 51 | 204 | 255 | 153 | ||
5 | 566 | 28 | 100 | 128 | 409 | ||
12 | 462 | 57 | 136 | 193 | 344 | ||
15 | 479 | 100 | 285 | 385 | 252 | ||
17 | 325 | 28 | 92 | 120 | 93 | ||
20 | 433 | 41 | 130 | 171 | 174 | ||
27 | 454 | 53 | 175 | 228 | 156 | ||
38 | 334 | 52 | 138 | 190 | 109 | ||
53 | 395 | 23 | 109 | 132 | 392 | ||
114 | 336 | 25 | 120 | 145 | 92 | ||
186 | 423 | 28 | 115 | 143 | 254 |
GOING DEEP
Green talked about uncovering finds with later picks in Jason Gregor’s piece yesterday.
“We’ve really put an importance on making better picks later, or trying to get more players later,” Green said. “And in order to do that we have to know those kids better . . . so, whether you’re talking to the guy who is ranked first overall or a hundred-and-fiftieth, if you want to try to find a player later, you have to get down to business and talk to these kids and find things out.”
The best teams do exactly that. They identify and draft the right kids, then develop them properly. Too often, lesser teams, like the Oilers, don’t – they aren’t alone in that – and pay a higher price to acquire them via free agency or trade later.
MR. HOCKEY
For those of us of a certain age, Gordie Howe was the hockey icon of our generation long before Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby came along. As everybody knows by now, we lost Mr. Hockey today at the age of 88.
As a kid, I was lucky enough to see Howe play during the 1970-71 season. I was more blessed to interview him and speak with his wife Colleen for stories I worked on at The Edmonton Journal in the 1990s. Howe was gracious enough to give me his time and was very generous with it. Condolences to the Howe family.
Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TSN 1260.
THE CONNORVERSARY PARTY
There are few certainties in life – we can always count on the sun coming up in the morning, Edmonton winters being dreadful, and the Oilers missing the playoffs. As such, we present the annual OilersNation Draft Party! It’s time to honour the the anniversary of drafting our beloved Connor, celebrate the rewards of another failed season, and raise some money for charity.
Here’s what you need to know…
The party is happening at the Pint Downtown on Friday, June 24th. The goal is to raise as much money as possible for the Red Cross and their efforts to bring normalcy back to Fort McMurray, and have a little bit of fun while we’re at it. For $30 you get a Draft Party t-shirt, a $10 Pint GC, a $10 Oodle Noodle GC, a draft party collectors cup, and a chance for prizes and eternal glory.
All proceeds from tickets sold will be donated directly to the Red Cross so bring your friends, get involved, and help us support a community in need. Tickets are still available here.
One day, the Oilers will be a good hockey team and we’ll all be able to laugh about this. Until then, we party.
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