Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford, @HurricanesGM sent out this tweet yesterday around 7 p.m. EST., " It looks like we are going to be able to get Jeff Skinner tied up for a number of years. Exciting news for our franchise."

Then a few hours later Bob McKenzie tweeted, "Jeff Skinner’s extension with CAR expected to be 6 years with an AAV of $5.725M."

The Hurricanes have been very aggressive this summer trading for Jordan Staal, signing Alex Semin, albeit only for one year, and now Jeff Skinner. It’s nice to see them go after and lock up some offensive stars, but more importantly for Oiler fans Skinner’s contract will have to be looked at as a comparable for Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle’s new deals.

You can look at Skinner and seem comparisons for both Eberle and Hall. Let’s first look at Skinner’s two NHL seasons. 

Even if you pro-rated Skinner’s 2nd season, 26-30-56 he still wouldn’t have matched his rookie season. It is interesting to note that Skinner had almost the same amount of shots in 64 games as he did in 82, but scored 11 less goals. Skinner is a solid player at EV, with 80% of his goals coming five-on-five.

Here’s a quick look at is first two season of icetime. (TOI), and how he compared amongst the top Hurricane forwards in icetime.

2010/2011 

As a rookie Skinner was exceptional. He tallied 31 goals and 63 points, and he played against mid-range opposition.

Skinner, like most young skilled players, is used mainly at EV and on the PP. When healthy, only Eric Staal played more minutes amongst Hurricane forwards.

The concerning part about Skinner’s 2nd season was that he played against "easier" competition most nights, yet he produced fewer points than his rookie season.

Amongst Hurricane forwards he was 9th in Corsi Rel QofC. He played more minutes, against weaker opponents, but he produced fewer points. In his rookie season he played against the other team’s top forwards. I’ve long suggested that it might be easier to produce points when you play against the other team’s top lines, than when you play against their checking line, which is usually deemed easier competition.

Either way, Skinner regressed in his 2nd season despite getting more icetime. Skinner went from 63 to 44 points and he still got a six-year extension. John Tavares tallied 24-30-54 as a rookie and then 29-38-67 sophomore and then he got a six-year extension worth $5.5 million/year.

Rutherford clearly wanted to make a statement to his players, fans and the league that the Hurricanes are willing to spend money to keep their star players. I like his aggressiveness, but I don’t see Skinner in the same light as Tavares. Tavares went from 54 to 67 to 81 points his first three years on Long Island. Skinner needs a huge bounce back season to even be considered close to Tavares.

Hall and Eberle are completely different players, but since breaking into the league as rookies two years ago they’ve consistently been linked together. Their jersey sales have been very close, live auctions of their signed sticks on my show garnered identical bids and thereis even a radio spoof about the two of them.

Many feel the Oilers should give them identical extensions, similar to Kane/Toews and the Sedins, except their cap hit should be closer to that of Tavares/Skinner.

We’ve seen Skinner’s numbers over two years, so let’s look at Eberle and Hall.

Hall: 

Eberle: 

Despite playing fewer games than Skinner in 2012, Hall still outscored him 53 to 44, while Eberle crushed him with his breakout 76 point season. It is an interesting contrast because Hall and Eberle both improved as sophomores, while Skinner suffered a bit of the sophomore jinx.

Now let’s compare Icetime and who they played against.

2010/2011 

As rookies, both Hall and Eberle had more TOI/G than Skinner, but they played 17 and 13 fewer games respectively. Like Skinner, Hall didn’t see any PK time, while Eberle had :40/game, meanwhile they were 3rd (Hall) and 5th in Corsi Rel QofC.

 2011/2012 

Hall and Eberle spent virtually the same amount of TOI from year one to year two, but they produced way more points as sophomores compared to rookies. The only difference was that Eberle played :30 less on the PK last year than he did as a rookie. Hall was 4th amongst the Oilers in Corsi Rel QofC while Eberle faced the 8th.

 

If you look at their career numbers (chart above) over two seasons, Skinner is right in the middle of them, 12 total points more than Hall, but 12 less than Eberle.

If you look at their career points-per-game Eberle sits at 0.81, Hall is at 0.75 while Skinner sits at 0.73.

Ultimately Skinner’s contract will be used as a comparable, just like Tavares’ will be and this should make the negotiations between the Oilers and their two young wingers and it should lead to a rather easy negotiation. The Oilers want to re-sign them and both players have expressed their desire to be part of the rebirth of the franchise.

There is no reason for either side to rush into an extension. Tavares signed his contract extension on September 15th, while Kane and Toews were signed on December 3rd, two months into the season. In their first two seasons Kane produced 142 points, while Toews racked up 123.

The difference between Kane/Toews and the other four is that Kane and Toews had already proven they could produce in the playoffs. Kane tallied 14 points in 16 games, while Toews contributed 13 in 17 games. Toews is easily the best two-way player of the six young forwards, so the contracts aren’t always just about money.

When Kane and Toews’ extensions kicked in the cap was at $59.4 million, so they were each 10.6% of the Hawks total cap. I don’t think it should matter much if the Oilers and the camps of Eberle and Hall wait until a new CBA is in place to sign a new deal.

If the cap stays at $70 million and they sign for Skinner-lie money that would give the Oilers more cap space because Hall and Eberle would each be 8.2% of the total cap hit.

If the cap drops to $65 million and they sign for $5.75 million they’d be 8.8% of the total cap hit. Either way the Oilers would have some cap flexibility.

The Oilers, as well as Eberle and Hall, need to look at the big picture and find the right cap hit that gives the players a fair market deal, but also gives the Oilers the flexibility to sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and their other young players.

If these players and management truly want to win, both sides need to show some fiscal constraint.

The Hurricanes don’t have an RNH or Yakupov to worry about in the future, so Rutherford elected to give Skinner a bit more than what he deserved, but that isn’t the case in Edmonton.

Comparables are great, but no two situations are the same and that’s why the Oilers and all of their young players need to look more at how successful teams paid their star players, rather than how some bottom feeders have paid their best players.