Deep Impact – The Bottom Six and Scoring Struggles

The @Edmonton Oilers are 8-2-1, first place in the Pacific Division, and tied for first place in the Western Conference. Times are good in the City of Champions, and throughout the Nation. It’s still early in the 2019-20 NHL season, but that doesn’t mean that fans can’t be stoked about the start that the team has gotten off to. With that being said, it then stands to reason that it isn’t too early to point out some of the areas of concern that exist with the current roster.

The Oilers’ great start has largely need on the backs of three(ish) players: @Connor McDavid, @Leon Draisaitl, and @James Neal. The team has scored 34 goals, with 23 of those goals coming from McDavid (6), Draisaitl (8), and Neal (9); that accounts for 67.6% of the team’s goal output. One of Ken Holland main objectives in his first offseason as Oilers GM was to improve the depth and bolster the goal-scoring scoring output of a roster that finished the 2018-19 season with only six players hitting double-digit goal totals– Draisaitl (50), McDavid (41), @Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (28), @Alex Chiasson (22), @Zack Kassian (15), and @Darnell Nurse (10).

The Oilers currently have ten players who have scored at least one goal, with six of those players having scored two or more. Out of those goal-scorers, only six of those players are on pace to score more than 10 goals this season: McDavid, Draisaitl, Neal, @Zack Kassian, @Darnell Nurse and @Ethan Bear. There are only two other teams in the league whose depth scoring is just as thin: the @Boston Bruins have ten players with a goal or more, and the @Detroit Red Wings have nine. To put these numbers into context, there are eighteen teams with 13 or more players with at least one goal on their roster. The good news is that it’s never bad to be in the same company as the Bruins, the bad news it’s not ideal to be in the same conversation as the Red Wings (at least this season).

There are eleven players on the Oilers with an xGF% (Expected Goals For) above 50.0%, the Bruins have nine, and the Red Wings have five. Out of those listed players, the Bruins have four who have not scored yet, while the Red Wings have zero; the Oilers have three, but two are not currently on the roster, Gaetan Haas (54.30%) and Joel Persson (53.57%). @Patrick Russell is the only player who hasn’t scored yet, but has the possession numbers that suggest he’s ripe to pot his first goal of the season. But they’re not a great 5v5 possession team as a whole: they rank 25th with a CF% of 47.87; 22nd in xGF% at 47.89%. To go even deeper, their scoring chances rank 25th at 46.40SCF%, while their High Danger counts are good, with a HDCF% ranked 12th at 51.28% and HDGF% tied at 15th at an even 50.00.

There’s also been a lot of discussion regarding the disparity of ice time between Draisaitl and McDavid compared to the rest of the team; McDavid finished the game against the @Washington Capitals with 27:27 TOI while Draisaitl finished with 26:49 TOI. Draisaitl is leading the league among forwards in ice time, averaging 23:59 TOI/GM, while McDavid is second, averaging 23:09 TOI/GM. They are far-and-away the highest-utilized forwards in the league, with the next-closest forward being the @New York Rangers’ @Mika Zibanejad, who is averaging 22:39 TOI/GM. To put this into context including defensemen, Draisaitl ranks 23rd overall in the league, McDavid 34th, and Zibanejad 42nd.

The ice time will be talked about more, especially if the rest of the team struggles to contribute offensively, but it’s hard to say whether or not it’s unsustainable. Both their ice times are similar to last season.

It’s unprecedented for two forwards to be playing as much as they are, but perhaps McDavid and Draisaitl are unprecedented players– McDavid certainly is in terms of skill and speed. History absolutely says that it’s doomed to crash and burn– or at the very least, taper off– but we’re watching two players play at a level that is almost surreal to watch.

There certainly improvements, or at least tweaks, that Dave Tippett and the coaching staff have to make to get the bottom six rolling and start getting some depth scoring (or perhaps it’s Ken Holland who has to make further tweaks). But in the meantime, the Oilers can rely on the talent and offensive success of their two best players– and the special teams, both of which remain in the league’s top five– while the rest of the roster sorts out its scoring woes.