No player divides fans of the Edmonton Oilers quite like Evan Bouchard.

Sure, Stuart Skinner has sparked some debate, but even during Bouchard’s standout playoff performances, criticism lingered. Regardless of opinions, the Oilers face a critical decision about his future this season.

That decision? It’s not just about signing him long-term, though that seems the most probable outcome.
Bouchard becomes a restricted free agent this summer, with his two-year, $7.8 million bridge deal expiring.

Since signing that contract in August 2023, he’s played 145 regular-season games, scoring 30 goals (7th among defensemen) and racking up 133 points. Only Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes have scored more points in that time. On the power play, they’re also the only two defensemen ahead of him in production.

Critics label Bouchard a “power-play merchant,” but the numbers tell a different story. At even strength, he’s tallied 77 points — again 7th among NHL defensemen. His offensive production is undeniable.
The issue, however, is defense.

Since signing his bridge deal, Bouchard has been on the ice for 107 goals against at five-on-five, ranking 29th among defensemen with over 1,000 minutes played. For context, notable names like Alex Pietrangelo (20th) and Morgan Rielly (22nd) have allowed more. Yet, none of the 28 defensemen ahead of Bouchard have been on the ice for as many goals scored. In fact, no defenseman in the league has been on the ice for more goals—period.

Still, defensive lapses frustrate fans. They expect fewer mistakes from someone likely to command a hefty contract. It’s a fair critique, but replacing a defenseman with Bouchard’s elite offensive potential is no easy task.

This summer’s negotiations will be influenced by the market for top-tier defensemen. Back in 2022, players like Zach Werenski, Charlie McAvoy, Seth Jones, and Darnell Nurse signed massive deals in their mid-20s. All but Werenski inked max-term contracts, earning over $9 million annually. Statistically, Bouchard is outperforming all four, and you can expect his camp to highlight that.

The Oilers, however, missed an opportunity. They could’ve locked Bouchard into an eight-year deal before signing him to the bridge contract. Defensemen like Makar, Miro Heiskanen, and Hughes are locked in long-term for under $9 million per season. If Edmonton had acted sooner, they could’ve saved valuable cap space.
Now, the Oilers hold some leverage. Bouchard’s defensive struggles this season may work in their favor during negotiations. A deal under $10 million annually for eight years would be a win for Edmonton. Anything under $11 million keeps them in a strong position.

The numbers show Bouchard’s value, but for fans, it’s not just about stats. They want fewer costly mistakes. They want consistency. And they want a defenseman who can deliver in every zone. Whether or not Bouchard meets those expectations, the Oilers are unlikely to find another player with his offensive upside anytime soon.