The Edmonton Oilers are in a great spot right now, sitting first in the Pacific with 72 points in 55 games, and two points ahead of Vegas. They rank third in the league with a 0.667 points percentage, only behind Washington and Winnipeg.

A big reason for that is their overall results at even-strength (5v5), where they’ve outscored opponents 120 to 106 and have a goals-for percentage of 53.10 percent that ranks eighth in the league. What’s been especially encouraging is their strong underlying numbers, like their Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals-For Percentage – both of which are around 55 percent and indicate that their results at even strength are real and sustainable.

What’s interesting is that while the team is getting excellent results at five-on-five, the team’s shooting percentage of 8.26 percent is one of the worst in the league. They currently rank 26^th and only ahead of Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Calgary, Ottawa, and Nashville – none of which are considered cup contenders like Edmonton. Last season the Oilers shooting percentage ranked 15^th in the league and the year before it ranked eighth.

Put another way, if the Oilers had a league-average shooting percentage this season (which is around 8.75 percent), they would have scored 125 goals this season instead of 119. That’s another win in the standings and a larger gap between the competition in the Pacific. Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model also has the Oilers at scoring 132 goals, which again is higher than their actual count. Using that model, the Oilers should have two extra wins in the standings.

Any way you look at it, the Oilers would be higher up in the standings if they could just finish their chances even marginally better. Goal-scoring has been gradually increasing year-over-year league wide, making it even more critical that Edmonton keeps pace to help solidify their ranking and secure home-ice for the playoffs.

There are of course plenty of factors why the Oilers might be underperforming when it comes to goal-scoring. Players can always slump over the course of a year. Maybe teams are just playing the Oilers harder as they went to the final last season and are considered one of the legit Cup contenders. Hard to pinpoint the exact issue.

But one factor that could be driving down the team’s shooting percentage is the high number of shots and the proportion of shots that are coming off the sticks of their defencemen. Ideal scoring chances are from in close and when the goalie is in motion – which is more likely to happen when forwards are getting those opportunities. Shots from the blueline can create rebounds and chaos, but a lot of times a team is just giving up puck possession when they’re shooting from distance.

On average, teams get about 30 percent of their total even-strength shots from their defencemen. This season, the Oilers getting 35 percent of their total shots from their defencemen, which is the third highest proportion in the league. In the previous two seasons, the Oilers were at around 31 percent and closer to league-average levels. Worth noting that the two teams that get a higher proportion of shots from their defencemen are also cup contenders who are struggling with finishing their chances. Carolina currently ranks 19^th in the league in terms of shooting percentage while Colorado ranks 22nd.

Back to Edmonton and their rate of shots from defencemen. Among the 252 defencemen who have played at least 100 even-strength minutes this season, Darnell Nurse ranks third highest with 7.20 shots per hour and Evan Bouchard ranks seventh with 6.82 shots per hour. Ekholm isn’t too far behind, ranking 18^th with 6.13 shots per hour. No other team has three defencemen in the top twenty.

For additional context, below is a shot-location map from Hockey Viz comparing the Oilers’ chances last season compared to this season. Red indicates a higher volume relative to league average levels. What stands out here is the growth in chances coming from the blueline on the right side. And fewer shots from in close, which the Oilers excelled at last season.

Ideally, the shots are coming from the forwards up front, especially from the top-end players. It’s worth noting too that McDavid’s rate of shots are down this season, which is a little baffling considering his talent level and above-average shooting percentage. His current individual rate of 7.51 shots per hour is down 22.1 percent when compared to his rate over the last three seasons (9.17 shots per hour). Unclear if it’s because the defencemen are taking more of the shots or if he’s dealing with something else.

As the regular season winds down, there’s going to be a home-ice advantage on the line. And it’ll be critical that the Oilers keep up with the growing scoring pace across the league – especially at even-strength. The team is doing a lot of things right in terms of controlling the flow of play and out-chancing opponents. But unless the coaching staff makes some tactical adjustments and generate more offence from their star players up front, the shooting percentage may not improve to where it should be.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Viz