The Oilers haven’t officially clinched a playoff spot, but their focus over the final 14 games is to be playing sound defensively when the postseason begins on April 17th. Tonight presents a wonderful opportunity to see how they match up against a solid Dallas Stars squad.

Dallas is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games, and oddly its three losses have come to Canadian teams in the Pacific division. Vancouver defeated them 5-2 and 5-4 in OT while Calgary also won 5-4. They allowed 15 goals in those three games, while only allowing 18 in their seven victories.

Dallas has allowed two goals or fewer in 36 games (52.9%), while allowing four or more 21 times (30.8%). If you include the 11 games they’ve allowed three goals, then in 69.2% of their games their GA is three and under. They are 34-5-8 in those games and 3-13-5 when allowing 4+ goals.

Edmonton has allowed two goals or fewer 23 times (33.8%) and has given up four or more 24 times (35.2%). They’ve allowed three goals 21 times which means in 64.7% of their games they’ve limited the opposition to three goals or less. Edmonton is 4-16-4 when allowing 4+ goals, and they are 33-7-4 when allowing three.

Edmonton has allowed exactly three goals 10 more times than Dallas, but the Oilers’ offence allows them to win more games when allowing three goals. Dallas has allowed three or less 47 times and the Oilers have 44 times, yet Dallas has a significantly lower overall GAA.

Dallas has allowed four goals eight times, five goals 10 times, and six goals three times. In those 21 games, they allowed a total of 100 goals. They are 3-13-5.

Edmonton has allowed four goals 10 times, five goals six times, six goals five times and seven goals three times. They’ve allowed 121 goals in those 24 games and are 4-16-4.

Edmonton and Dallas each have 37 wins this season, but the Oilers have 35 in regulation to Dallas’ 31. The difference in their season is the Stars have managed to get to OT more often. They have 13 OT/SO losses to the Oilers eight.

The Oilers issue is when they are bad, they are really bad defensively. We’ve seen it in recent games v. Toronto, Winnipeg, and Columbus. It is interesting to note that they’ve allowed three goals less frequently than the Stars, however, Dallas is better at limiting teams to two goals or fewer.

At 5×5 Dallas has allowed 22 fewer goals than Edmonton and 42 overall, and that is why Dallas is sixth overall in GAA and Edmonton is 22nd. But when you break it down by game, the difference isn’t massive. When the Oilers decide to have an off-game defensively, they go all out. They have only allowed one more shot on goal per game than the Stars, but have allowed 42 more goals.

Jack Campbell’s .882Sv% in 30 starts is a big factor. I can’t blame him solely — the defensive play in front of him at times, has been abysmal — but if Campbell even had an .900Sv% that would mean 16 fewer goals. Goaltending has been a factor in the high GAA for the Oilers, and when you break down their season v. a solid Dallas defensive team the difference in GAA comes down to Dallas’ ability to simply be more consistent, and they’ve had three fewer games of giving up significant goals.

Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto
RNH – Draisaitl – Foegele
Kostin – Bjugstad – Janmark
Shore –  Ryan

Nurse – Ceci
Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Desharnais
Broberg

Skinner

Ryan McLeod didn’t skate this morning, while Zach Hyman was involved in line rushes. However, Hyman stayed out late after practice and did some conditioning drills. Usually, that is a sign he won’t play. When he came off the ice he wasn’t made available to the media. My hunch is he won’t play tonight and the Oilers will go 11-7.