GDB 32.0: Need A Win (8pm MT, SNW)

Photo credit:Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

3 years ago

When the Edmonton Oilers lost three in a row to Toronto they didn’t play well — in any of the games. The Oilers lost Saturday in Vancouver and Tuesday in Calgary, but they didn’t play poorly in either game. Monday’s loss in Calgary was due to them missing the net on three of their best scoring chances, and two bad decisions in the neutral zone that led directly to goals.

As the games tighten up in the second half of this season, the Oilers’ decision making — with or without the puck — will likely decide many games. There will be games where they play well and lose. It happens, but if they can reduce the “easy” goals against then they should be fine, as they’ve been able to create enough offensively.

Monday’s game saw a very tentative, defensive first period. Edmonton had the best chance, but @Kailer Yamamoto opted to try and force a pass to Leon Draisaitl on a two-on-one rather than shoot from a prime scoring area in the slot.

But the second period things really opened up after Dillon Dube took advantage of a rare @Connor McDavid miscue to open the scoring and both teams started to skate and make more plays. Edmonton didn’t give up much, it was just when they did, it led to a goal.

Shots from the slot favoured the Oilers 15-10, and they had twice as many scoring chances off the rush (12-6), but they didn’t capitalize. We often focus on playing sound defensively, which is valid, but hitting the net on your best scoring chances is just as important and Edmonton missed the net on their three best chances: Yamamoto forced a pass to Draisaitl in the first, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was wide open in the slot, but missed the next with 15 seconds remaining in the second, and McDavid, after a great move to deke around a Flames defender, shot high and wide with 1:06 to go in the third. Bury one of the chances and they might have gone to OT for only the second time this season.

“We have to bear down on our chances. There aren’t a lot, and when we get good ones we need to finish,” said McDavid this morning.

Darryl Sutter won’t be happy with how many good chances the Oilers had, including a Josh Archibald short-handed breakaway early in the third period, so look for the Flames to play more like they did in the first period. If the Oilers work as hard as they did to create good chances on Monday, they should get rewarded tonight.

The Flames want to chip and chase and force the Oilers to make plays under pressure. I thought Edmonton did a decent job handling the Flames forecheck, but I expect Calgary to be more aggressive on the forecheck tonight. They will continue soft dumps in hopes Mike Smith can’t knock them down. (Smith didn’t err on the third goal. The puck bounced over his stick at the last moment). I’d want him to remain aggressive and get after pucks, as I counted nine times where he got the puck and made a great outlet pass which allowed Edmonton to move quickly out of their zone.

I outlined in Game Notes why I feel these next 12 days are crucial for the Oilers. They play eight games in 12 days, after already playing four games in the previous six days. They need to battle through the fatigue, and if they can get to March 29th with at least four more wins, they’ll set themselves up nicely for April, where they only play 10 games in 27 days (including the last two days of March).

A win tonight pushes them seven points ahead of Calgary, and even if the Flames win their two games in hand they are three points back. Lose tonight and the Flames are three back with two extra games. It is another big game in the tight North division.

LINEUP…

Oilers

RNH – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Ennis – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Archibald – Shore – Kassian
Kahun – Haas – Chiasson

Nurse – Barrie
Lagesson – Larsson
K.Russell – Bear

Smith

These lines are not set in stone. This is a bit of a guess on combinations on my part. Tippett didn’t want to tip his hand on lines. I think we could see various combinations like last game. If Kassian gets cleared this afternoon he will play. If he isn’t ready, then maybe they play 11 forwards. My D pairs are going off the premise Barrie will play. He skated this morning, and didn’t stay out late with Jujhar Khaira, Patrick Russell, Kyle Turris, James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Caleb Jones and Theodor Lennstrom

Tyson Barrie skated this morning and will be a game-time decision. If he can’t play then Evan Bouchard will dress, but Nurse will be on the first unit powerplay, as he has played there the most, said Tippett. The other option is they could dress 11 forwards and seven D-men to protect Barrie a bit. We won’t know for sure until warmup. But I do know Neal is out.

Flames

Tkachuk – Lindholm – Dube
Gaudreau – Monahan – Ritchie
Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane
Bennett – Ryan – Leivo

Giordano – Andersson
Hanafin – Tanev
Valimaki – Kylington

Markstrom

The Flames stick with their winning lineup from the previous two games.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Flamesnation.ca:

Jacob Markstrom starts for the Flames, backed up by David Rittich. The projected active extra is Nikita Nesterov, while Joakim Nordstrom remains out with an injury. The taxi squad is Artyom Zagidulin, Alex Petrovic, Oliver Kylington, Dominik Simon, Zac Rinaldo and Buddy Robinson – Kylington will be activated for the game tonight.
The Flames are on their longest heater of the season: three games! But they’re also playing some of the best structured hockey of the season and under Sutter every skater on the team has an expected goals percentage north of 50% aside from Mark Giordano, Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau, Brett Ritchie and Sean Monahan. (The hope is likely that these guys will bounce back considering they’ve generated so much offense, albeit not as much as you’d hope five-on-five).
If the Flames can keep this up, they may keep pulling themselves back into the playoff conversation.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers rebound with a tight-checking 3-1 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid picks up two points in St.Patrick’s Day. “The Irish McDavid surname is derived from the Irish Gaelic Patronymic name “Mac Daibheid.”

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: For the first time in his career Draisaitl scores a goal in six consecutive games. Him scoring is not a surprise, but scoring on a deflection is. After the game Draisaitl uses a famous Irish quote when asked about his goal: “There is no luck except where there is discipline.”

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