GDB 33.0: Second Place on the Line (7pm MT, SNW)
By baggedmilk
3 years agoThere’s no time to waste thinking about last night’s win over the Flames because the Oilers are right back at it tonight against the Winnipeg Jets for the fifth round of their season series. With second place in the North division on the line, this one should be a beauty.
To this point in their head-to-head series, the Oilers and Jets have each won two games with all but one of those four finishes ending as one-goal games. If we assume another tight battle will go down here in round five, it’s going to be incredibly important for the Oilers to make strong choices with the puck to try and limit the number of opportunities going the other way. In their most recent losses, Edmonton played decently but was guilty of coughing up pucks for quality scoring chances and way too many of those babies ended up in the back of the net, creating the need for a much simpler game. Let’s wipe out the forced cross-ice passes and get back to firing the puck on net when given the chance and fishing for any garbage that might be left behind, shall we?
Looking ahead to the task at hand, the Oilers will have their hands full with a Jets team that has been surging regardless of them also coming into this one on the second half of a back-to-back set. Over their last 10 games, the Jets are 6-3-1 and have come up with some big wins against quality opponents over that span, and since the Oilers are tied with them in the standings with three more games played, tonight’s contest almost becomes a must-win situation. I mean, I know the boys will have another crack at the Jets on Saturday night and the games played will even out eventually, but it’s my opinion that they would be best served to get this series started with a win rather than chasing for the equalizer two nights from now. It’s a simple dream, but I also feel like it’s a good one.
Let’s see what the numbers say.
THE NUMBERS
| OILERS | JETS | |
| RECORD | 19-13-0 | 18-9-2 |
| WIN/LOSS STREAK | W1 | W1 |
| LAST 10 GAMES | 5-5-0 | 6-3-1 |
| GOALS FOR | 110 | 97 |
| GOALS AGAINST | 94 | 85 |
| POWER PLAY% | 26.2 | 24.7 |
| PENALTY KILL% | 78.1 | 78.9 |
| AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 31.4 | 29.7 |
| AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 31.2 | 31.8 |
| TEAM SAVE% | .916 | .922 |
| CORSI FOR% | 49.44 | 47.56 |
| PDO | 1.008 | 1.006 |
| TEAM SHOOTING% | 9.28 | 8.41 |
| EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 51.29 | 45.99 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (fancies at 5×5)
LINEUPS…
Oilers ***UPDATED***
RNH – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Kahun – Draisaitl – Archibald
Ennis – Haas – Kassian
Nygard – Shore – Chiasson
Kahun – Draisaitl – Archibald
Ennis – Haas – Kassian
Nygard – Shore – Chiasson
Nurse – Barrie
Jones – Larsson
Russell – Bear
Jones – Larsson
Russell – Bear
Koskinen
As of early this afternoon, there have been no lineup updates released for the Oilers which isn’t exactly surprising after playing last night, but Dave Tippett did say this morning that there could be a couple of tweaks. Right now, I’ve got the same line combos as yesterday with the exception being a swap of Koskinen in for Smith. If anything chances between now and puck drop, I’ll be sure to jump in and make the edits as news becomes available.
UPDATE: No Yamo (😭) or Lagesson tonight.
Jets
Statsny – Scheifele – Wheeler
Connor – Dubois – Ehlers
Copp – Lowry – Appleton
Perreault – Thompson – Lewis
Connor – Dubois – Ehlers
Copp – Lowry – Appleton
Perreault – Thompson – Lewis
Morrissey – Demelo
Forbort – Pionk
Stanley – Poolman
Forbort – Pionk
Stanley – Poolman
Brossoit
It goes without saying that the Oilers will need to make good choices with the puck to avoid giving the Jets more chances than they’ll already produce for themselves. If they don’t, we could be in line for a rough night as the Peg certainly has players that have feasted on the Oilers historically — Ehlers has seven goals and 17 points in 18 appearances and Scheifele has eight goals and 18 points in 24 career games versus Edmonton. To me, if the top six on both sides generally evens out then this is a battle between the bottom six and that’s going to be a tough matchup to win.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
Yes, this may sound insane, but the Jets will be attempting to slow down the monstrosity that is Connor McDavid during this meeting at Rogers Place. While accomplishing this feat certainly won’t be easy and may seem virtually impossible, this club has enjoyed moderate success in keeping one of the top players in the league in check, as he’s only scored one goal and five assists during five-on-five situations in four games against them this season.Among all Winnipeg’s defensemen, Pionk has been the most effective defender in those four games against the 24-year-old superstar and will likely be relied upon once again to take away the middle of the ice from him. On the other hand, McDavid only played 17:08 minutes on Wednesday against the Calgary Flames, meaning he probably won’t be facing a minutes restriction in this second game in two nights.
TONIGHT…
Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: Oilers start off slow but finish strong and close out a 4-2 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: @Laurent Brossoit does everything he possibly can to embarrass his former team and it almost works, too.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: After years of invitations, the Winnipeg Jets finally agree to take a tour of the Edmonton International Airport to get a sense of what it must like to have one.
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