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GDB 35.0 (Take 2): Back to Business (5pm MT, CBC)

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Photo credit:Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
baggedmilk
3 years ago
For the first time in nearly a week, we’ve got a fresh GDB on the site to help us all get ready (hopefully) for tonight’s matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
It goes without saying that this was not the week we expected. On Monday morning, we were all locked into the idea of the Oilers taking on the Habs and trying to extend their winning streak, but that all came crashing down about an hour before puck drop when the game was postponed. It sucked, but it was understandable. Safety first, I get it. When the game got called, I was just wrapping my new Instagram show “Risky Business” and to capture Yaremchuk’s live reaction was pretty hilarious but I figured that they’d just pick things back up on Wednesday as scheduled. At worst, the game we missed would get tacked on somewhere near the end of the year and that would be that. I don’t know about you, but I definitely didn’t expect the entire week’s worth of games to get wiped out. As much as it was nice to get a few days off, the Oilers were rolling before this unexpected break kicked in and while I’m happy some guys — Yamamoto specifically — got a few more deals to heal up whatever injuries they’ve got going on, I would have much rather watched the boys steamroll through a very mediocre Montreal Canadiens team. That’s pandemic life, I suppose.
When it comes to the task at hand, this situation against the Leafs reminds me of Nicholas Cage’s dilemma with ‘Eleanor’ in the academy award-winning movie Gone in 60 Seconds. If you haven’t seen it — you really need to figure your life out btw — Nicolas Cage and his crew have a list of cars to steal for some mob-type of guy and there’s a Shelby Mustang GT500 he called Eleanor that he’s tried to boost many times before but something always seems to go wrong every time he tries to make it happen. Even when he thinks the stars are aligned and that he’ll finally steal his beloved Eleanor, the universe intervenes and Cage is left carless, sad and sporting that moody face he always makes. Get the basic idea? Bringing it around to the Oilers, Toronto has won five of seven games in this series so far and that’s a real problem for Oilers fans, especially after the way the last series went. It doesn’t matter that we’re cruising through the rest of the North Division, those losses to the Leafs seem to sting a little bit more than the rest and, like Cage trying to steal Eleanor the Shelby Mustang, finding a way to beat them consistently is a mountain our boys have struggled to scale despite these two teams being neck and neck in the standings.
At the end of Gone in 60 Seconds, Nick Cage and Eleanor find their peace and the plot wraps up nicely with a bow — I wouldn’t want to spoil a masterpiece like Gone in 60 Seconds for those in the room that don’t have their lives in order — and it’s the same basic outcome that I think we all need for the Oilers. Land your Eleanor, boys.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERSLEAFS
RECORD21-13-021-10-2
WIN/LOSS STREAKW3W2
LAST 10 GAMES7-3-04-6-0
GOALS FOR116110
GOALS AGAINST9785
POWER PLAY%27.026.8
PENALTY KILL%76.076.8
AVG. SHOTS/FOR31.330.9
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST31.028.5
TEAM SAVE%.918.929
CORSI FOR%49.7350.42
PDO1.0111.019
TEAM SHOOTING%9.339.08
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%51.6253.21
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (fancies at 5×5)

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Kahun – RNH – Yamamoto
Archibald – Haas – Kassian
Shore – Khaira – Chiasson
Nurse – Barrie
Lagesson – Larsson
Russell – Bear
Smith
The last time the Oilers and Leafs met up, Toronto did a fine job of keeping Connor McDavid quiet but I feel like that’s going to be a whole other job entirely now that he’s got Draisaitl on his line. Now, if those two can win more shifts than they lose — a result you’d almost expect when they’re together — it will be up to the other three lines to win their matchups as well. Is it doable? Absolutely. Will it happen? We shall see.
At the time of posting, no concrete line combos have been announced but Dave Tippett did say that Yamamoto is back in and that Mike Smith would get the start. If anything else comes up, I’ll be sure to jump back in and edit.

Leafs

Thornton – Matthews – Marner
Nylander – Tavares – Simmonds
Mikheyev – Engvall – Hyman
Galchenyuk – Kerfoot – Spezza
Rielly – Brodie
Muzzin – Holl
Dermott – Bogosian
Campbell
There’s no doubt that the Leafs are a good team but I don’t think they’re nearly as good as the record against Edmonton would suggest. That said, the thing I’m most excited about is watching Joe Thornton try to keep up with McDavid when Sheldon Keefe line matches that way.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From TheLeafsnation.com:
When the Toronto Maple Leafs left Edmonton on March 3rd following their dominant three game sweep of the Oilers, the mood around the team was perhaps the highest it had been in many years. During said sweep, the Leafs outscored the Oilers 13-1 across three games, earning shutouts from Jack Campbell and Michael Hutchinson while also holding Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to a combined one point (the fact that Auston Matthews only appeared in one of the three games is a bit of an afterthought.) The sweep saw the Leafs increase their lead of the North Division to nine points over the second place Winnipeg Jets, and ten points over the thoroughly humiliated third place Oilers.
The Leafs, as they are prone to do, promptly reminded us that they are in fact the Toronto Maple Leafs, and proceeded to drop six of the nine and allowed the Oilers to close that gap to a mere two points heading into tonight’s matchup.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: The Leafs may have stopped the Oilers the last time these two teams met, but they’re unable to stop McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line. The Dynamic Duo powers the Oilers to a 4-2 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: We will hear how McDavid and Matthews trained together in the offseason no less than three times. If they say it five times we all get a bingo.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: There are people reading this right now that will watch Gone in 60 Seconds tonight instead of sticking around for the late game on Hockey Night in Canada.

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