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GDB 48.0: Battle Boys Part 9 (7pm MT, SNW)

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Photo credit:Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
baggedmilk
3 years ago
After rolling out of Winnipeg with four huge points in the bank, the Oilers look for a repeat performance tonight against a Calgary Flames team that is desperately hanging onto their playoff dreams. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to get ourselves ready for the ninth Battle of Alberta of the season.
With only nine games left on the schedule, we’ve officially landed in magic number territory and it’s one of the only times I can think of where math becomes exciting to me. Knowing that the Oilers need a combination of only seven points (won or lost) before they clinch a playoff spot has me all jacked up to not only watch the boys keep winning but also for my daily sweep of how the rest of the division is doing. After years and years out of the postseason, the opportunity to clinch a playoff spot is something that I won’t be taking lightly and I think I can speak for all of us when I say that I hope the Oilers feel the exact same way. That said, there are no guarantees in life apart from death and taxes and that means another big effort along the lines of what we saw in Winnipeg would go a long way. While the playoff finish line is certainly in view, there’s still work left to do and the boys could scratch another big item off of their to-do list with a big Battle of Alberta win.
For teams like the Flames that are on the outside looking in — their magic number for elimination is only 5.5 btw — they’re running out of runway to make a move, and I think it’s fair to assume that they’re going to come into this game with an extra dose of motivation. Not only are they hanging on for dear life, but they also have a pair of games coming up against their provincial rival that will either keep them in the fight or bounce them out entirely, and that’s a combo that the Oilers need to be ready for. As much as I want to hope and believe that the Flames will be an easy out as they finish up their death march into mediocrity, I know that closing them out won’t be nearly that easy. One thing that I’ve wished for and spoken about a lot this season is the need for the Oilers to find ways to flex their killer instinct and I can’t think of a better time for that to happen than  now. The Flames are teetering on the edge of elimination, and I’d love nothing more than for the Oilers to be the ones that kick them off the cliff.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERSFLAMES
RECORD29-16-221-24-3
WIN/LOSS STREAKW2L1
LAST 10 GAMES7-2-15-5-0
GOALS FOR153128
GOALS AGAINST127139
POWER PLAY%26.920.0
PENALTY KILL%79.480.4
AVG. SHOTS/FOR29.629.8
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST31.028.6
TEAM SAVE%.920.914
CORSI FOR%48.4352.24
PDO1.0110.993
TEAM SHOOTING%9.127.92
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%49.4752.69
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (fancies at 5×5)

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Kahun – McDavid – Puljujarvi
RNH – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Shore – McLeod – Archibald
Neal – Haas – Chiasson
Nurse – Barrie
Kulikov – Larsson
Jones – Bear
Smith
Seeing as we’re on the second half of a back-to-back set, I can’t imagine there will be any news regarding line combos until much closer to puck drop so I’ve put the lines from last night in as a placeholder. Outside of Smith getting the start, it will be interesting to see if Dave Tippett swaps in some fresh bodies to try and keep the energy levels up. As always, I’ll jump in to update the lines as news comes out.

Flames

Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk
Mangiapane – Monahan – Ritchie
Lucic – Backlund – Dube
Nordstrom – Ryan – Robinson
Giordano – Tanev
Nesterov – Andersson
Valimaki – Stone
Markstrom
Can I be honest for a minute and say that I’m honestly surprised by how little this Calgary Flames team has been scoring? If you look at their top six, Calgary has players that have put up points historically and to have them all running cold for an entire season is something to behold. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining about the fact that the Flames give up way more than they get, but it is kinda weird to watch from afar.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Flamesnation.ca:
The Calgary Flames faced Montreal for the third consecutive game on Monday night. After getting decisive wins on Friday and Saturday, the Flames just couldn’t bury their chances against the Canadiens. The Flames lost a 2-1 nail-biter to Montreal, putting their playoff hopes on life support.
The Flames played decently, but they didn’t do enough to generate strong chances at five-on-five – or enough to bury those chances in the first two periods. They also seemed to run out of steam in the third period as Montreal clogged up the middle of the ice.
The Flames were decent, but decent just wasn’t good enough.
With the loss, the Flames’ tragic number drops to 5.5. Any combination of Flames losses or Montreal wins adding up to 5.5 results in the Flames being mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: Despite a slow start, the Oilers come roaring back in the second period and score the goals needed to close out a 4-2 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Connor McDavid finds out that I predicted he wouldn’t get to 100 points this season and he uses his Baggedmilk-inspired rage to fuel yet another multi-point game.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Dominik Kahun finally cashes one in.

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