GDB 68.0: A DATE IN DETROIT

LINEUP

QUICK HITS…

• The Oilers are one of only six teams who score more in the first period than they do in the second.
  

  TEAM	1ST period goals	2nd period goals
  Columbus	63	56
  Ottawa	62	56
  Detroit	59	55
  Los Angeles	52	41
  Edmonton	51	49
  Minnesota	49	46

• The Kings, Wild, Blue Jackets and Oilers continue to buck the scoring trend and tally more goals in the 3rd period than they do in the 2nd period. (I only counted teams who had more 3rd period goals not including EN goals)
  

  TEAM	2nd period goals	3rd period goals
  Boston	65	72
  Columbus	56	62
  Calgary	53	56
  New Jersey	51	54
  Florida	49	63
  Edmonton	49	54
  Minnesota	46	53
  Los Angeles	41	52

• I will have to look deeper, but I wonder if the reason the Oilers aren’t scoring as much as other teams in the 2nd period, where more goals are scored, is due to an ineffective transition game. The Oilers D-men don’t move the puck up as well as other teams, and often the forwards put too much of a gap between themselves and the D-men, thus limiting the ability to make good outlet passes.
• Some of you might be wondering if it is the system. I looked at least season and the Oilers were one of only four teams — Pittsburgh, Calgary, Nashville were the others — who scored more goals in the 1st and 3rd than they did in the 2nd. I’d have to look at many factors to try and figure out why over past two seasons the Oilers haven’t been able to take advantage of the long change and score more goals.
• In 2012, the Oilers scored more in the middle frame, 59-84-55, and their most used seven defenders were: Smid, Petry, Potter, Gilbert, Whitney, Peckham and Sutton. That was an overall better group of puck movers, especially with Whitney and Gilbert, than today and might be a reason why they produced more offence in the 2nd period. In fact, during every season since the 2005 lockout the Oilers have scored more goals in the 2nd period than they did in the first, and only once did they score more in the 3rd than the 2nd frame.
• I’m curious if you have any other theories on why over the past two seasons the Oilers haven’t been as productive in the second frame, when goals are “easier” to come by.
• I wonder if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is fatigued? He wasn’t able to train as hard as he would have liked last summer, due to his shoulder surgery. He’s not a very thick guy, so I wonder if he is worn down. This off-season will be very important for him. He’ll need to add muscle and strength.
There are many issues with the Oilers PP, but a glaring one is that they have 0 goals from defencemen. Last year Justin Schultz had 4 PP goals, but over the past two seasons he is the only blueliner to score with the man advantage. Oilers D-men have spent 504:22 seconds on the PP this year and they don’t have a goal. That is brutal. You can’t illustrate any better how much they lack a legitimate shooter from the point.
Schultz scored four times with 153 PP minutes last year, but in 208 minutes this year he has no goals. Their zone entries and puck movement has been terrible lately, but it was unrealistic to expect them to be as good as they were last year. Last year, the Oilers had a ridiculous 16.86 SH% on the PP. This year they are at 11.31 (19th). New Jersey has the best PP SH% at 15.28, so there was virtually no chance the Oilers PP would be as good, but it shouldn’t be this bad. Teams have taken away the down low pass and the players refuse to adapt. Teams know they won’t shoot from up top, so they don’t respect the shot and they keep their PK guys packed in tight. You’d think Eakins would look at trying Klefbom or Marincin at this point. It’s not like the PP can get much worse.
Schultz needs to learn to shoot more, or the Oilers have to find a D-man with a heavy shot.
Here is how the Oilers compare to the rest of the NHL in goals and PP goals by D-men.

TEAM	GOALS	PP GOALS
BOS	44	18
OTT	41	8
WPG	39	9
PITT	37	12
NSH	36	14
COL	36	7
PHO	35	10
ST.L	33	9
VAN	31	8
WSH	31	8
NJ	29	15
LA	29	8
PHI	29	4
SJ	28	9
TOR	28	5
CAR	27	7
CGY	26	11
ANA	26	8
CHIC	26	8
DALL	26	6
MINN	25	8
CBJ	24	9
NYR	24	5
T.B	24	5
FLO	23	6
BUFF	23	5
DET	22	5
EDM	22	0
NYI	20	6
MONT	19	6

• The Oilers are 30th in PP goals and 28th in ES goals by D-men.
• Finally, please stop suggesting the Oilers lose on purpose to get a better draft pick. Do you expect the coach to tell Scrivens and Fasth, who are both want to make a good impression and want the starter’s job next year, to let in a soft goal if the game is close? I’m sorry, but asking a team to tank on purpose comes from people with a loser mentality. The Oilers have mastered the art of losing, sadly, but it hasn’t happened because they tried to lose, it has happened because they aren’t that good.

TONIGHT…


GAME DAY PREDICTION: In the second game of back-to-back sets the Oilers are 1-1-2 when they win the first game and 1-4-1 when they lose the first one. I see that trend continuing with a 4-3 loss.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers don’t get a PP goal from a D-man.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers have been out shot 43 times this year, 4th most in the NHL, but tonight they will shock the Wings and out shoot a team for the first time since January 24th, a span of 15 games. The Maple Leafs have been out shot in 55 of their 68 games, but their longest streak of not out shooting an opponent was only 13 games. 
RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR

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