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GDB 7.0: Capital Gains

Jason Gregor
7 years ago
The Washington Capitals have been one of the best teams in the NHL for the past decade. They have the sixth most wins and points, scored the second most total goals and the third most power play goals. They are one of only four organizations to finish a season with 120 points, and only the second to have done it twice.
They led the NHL with 56 wins and 120 points last season. They had 121 points in 2010. The NHL has had eight seasons where a team compiled 120 or more points, and only three of them since 1978, with the Capitals doing it twice.
The 2006 Detroit Red Wings had 124 points before losing in the first round to the Edmonton Oilers. The Wings won the Stanley Cup two years later with many of the same core players. They also had 131 points in 1996, but lost in the third round to Colorado. They did win the Cup in 1997. 
The 1971 Boston Bruins had 121 points in 1971, but they also lost in the first round. They’d won the Cup in 1970, and won it again in 1972.
The Montreal Canadiens amassed 120 points four times. They had 120 points in 1973, 127 in 1976, 132 in 1977 and 129 in 1978. They hoisted the Stanley Cup in each of these four seasons.
The 2010 Capitals lost in seven games to Montreal in the first round despite outshooting the Habs 292-194. They couldn’t beat Jaroslav Halak and their PP hit the skids, going 1-for-33. Their PP had been the best in the NHL that year, 25.2%, by a large margin and they had 10 more PP goals than the second and third best PPs, and 15 more goals more than the fourth best.
Last year, the Capitals lost in the second round to the eventual Cup winning Pittsburgh Penguins in six hard fought games. Their PP was a very good, 5-for-23 and 21.7%, but two OT losses cost them.
The Caps are the only organization that hasn’t won a Cup within two years of totalling 120 points. They are still a dominant team and will be another good test for the Oilers to gauge how much they’ve improved.
They are 3-1-1 so far and haven’t played since losing 4-2 to the New York Rangers on Saturday. They are rested and excited to play the surging Oilers.

LINEUP

No lineup changes for the Oilers. Cam Talbot starts his seventh consecutive game.
Capitals
They have switched their top-two right wingers. Oshie moves down with Backstrom, while Burakovsky moves up with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov.
It is interesting to note the Ovechkin line has played mainly with the Orlov (35 min) and Carlson (33 min) pairing at EV. He has played 19 min with Alzner, 18 with Niskanen, 17 with Schmidt and 16 with Orpik.

QUICK HITS

  • It is interesting to see the D pairing matchups against Ovechkin. Pittsburgh and Florida had last change and they used Letang/Dumoulin in 12 of his 17 EV minutes, while Florida had Demers/Matheson against him in nine of his 14 EV minutes. Both teams went with very mobile pairs.
    At home he saw a mixed bag of Avs defenders, while versus the Islanders he was out against the Seidenberg/deHaan pairing three times as often as he saw the Hamonic/Leddy pairing. Against the Rangers, he matched up against McDonagh/Holden regularly and they shut him down. Ovechkin scored at EV, but it was against the Stall/Klein pairing and the Vesey-Stepan-Nash line.
  • I suspect McLellan will run the McDavid line against Ovechkin’s line and the Carlson pairing. He hasn’t worried too much about who McDavid plays. In home games he’s seen a steady diet of Giordano/Brodie, Pietrangelo/Bouwmeester and Ristolainen/Gorges. He saw the Statsny line a lot versus St.Louis, Monahan line versus the Flames and Ryan O’Reilly’s line versus the Sabres.
    Ken Hitchcock did everything he could to get Pietrangelo/Bouwmeester out against him (13 minutes), while Parayko, Shattenkirk and Edmundon played 3:30 each. Paul Maurice did the same in Winnipeg with Myers/Enstrom playing 13 EV minutes against him. Dustin Byfuglien played only 2:36.
    McDavid is so good right now McLellan hasn’t worried about who he matches up against, and with the second-fourth lines contributing 13 goals in six games, I don’t think he’ll try to hard to get McDavid out against the other team’s third pairs. When the complementary scoring slows down he might look at more favourable matchups, but he hasn’t thus far. And he won’t tonight, because he said he still wants to get everyone involved and in a rhythm.
  • Mark Letestu looks quicker, which is odd at his age. When I spoke to him about it, he said he doesn’t believe he is quicker, but gave an interesting explanation why it might look that way.
    “I’m always working on quickness — it is something that has always held me back a bit. I think something to it (looking quicker) is I’m playing fewer minutes this year. Being healthy down the middle, I haven’t had to step in the three hole, I’ve been at home, where I’ve probably been projected to be, in the four hole, where I’ve had most of my success. You cut three minutes out every night then there is a lot more gas in the tank when you have to go. It’s helped. I think it’s showing up early, and I think it is showing up in the fourth line all together. Our line has been able to contribute,” said Letestu.
    I’ve long argued against those who felt if a player played more minutes, they would have more success. Very few can have the success with more minutes, mainly because it often means playing tougher competition, but also because unless you are an elite skater, it is hard to keep up.
    The players who stick in the NHL for many years all train hard. It is rare that one of them is out of shape, however, even with all the training, you won’t have 100% cardio/power on every shift. Letestu isn’t an elite skater, so if he plays a few more shifts/game and on some of those shifts his cardio is only 90 or even 95%, he will look slower against a player who is 100%. We often overlook many factors when evaluating players. Letestu’s hockey sense is his best attribute. He has also pretty decent hands, and when playing in a role that suits him he is a more effective player. Health has allowed McLellan to put more players in positions to succeed.
  • The Capitals have allowed only eight goals in five games — four on the PP and four at EV. Brooks Orpik is +5 so far. He has yet to be on the ice for a goal against at EV. He’s been paired almost exclusively with Nate Schmidt for 60 of his EV minutes, while Carlson is his next most common D partner at 4:28. Orpik’s speed, or lack thereof, is something the Oilers need to try and take advantage of tonight. Although, him playing fewer minutes allows him to be more successful because, like Letestu, he is fresher.
  • Two years ago Benoit Pouliot had 108 shots in 58 games and he tallied 19 goals and 34 points. Last season he had 109 shots in 55 games and tallied 14-22-36. He was averaging just under two shots per game. He only has six shots in six games this season. He only had two points and six shots thru six games last season, while in 2014/2015 he had 0-2-2 and 10 shots in his first six games.
    It is way too early to jump all over him. The reality is all four lines won’t score at once, and the good news is while Pouliot and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins haven’t got off to good starts, the third and fourth lines have combined for 10 goals thus far. Of course, they will need to get going soon, but their lack of production has yet to cost the Oilers. It’s amazing what happens when you have actual depth.
  • If you have tickets to tonight’s game bring them down to the Pint Downtown, park your car for free (the impark lot behind the Pint is free after 4pm), and enter your name into the free draw to ride to and from the rink in the Nation Limo! 
  • Before each and every home game we’ll be putting on a NationGear pop-up store at Vacancy Hall (10363 104th Street NW – in the Mercer building) for a couple hours before puck drop. Feel free to swing by before (store closes an hour before puck drop) to upgrade your wardrobe with the latest NationGear without having to wait for shipping.
  • We have another free hockey pool for tonight’s game. You need to enter by 5 p.m. MDT. You can sign up at draftkings.com/gregor1260 and win $$. Good luck.
  • Look for McDavid to start shooting more on the PP. He has 16:58 of PP time and has no shots. I brought it up with him today and, no surprise, he was aware of it and says he’ll need to shoot more because it will open up more passing lanes.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Russian Machine Never Breaks
Needless to say, having the hot-takish opinion that the Oilers were a stronger team than the Capitals in almost every regard raised some eyebrows on Twitter and Hockey Reddit. But when we break it down using statistical analysis and logic, could last year’s 29th place team actually be the genuine on-paper favorite over the first place team, after only moderate offseason changes?
Spoiler: the answer is no.

TONIGHT

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Last year the Caps won 7-4 in Edmonton on October 23rd, and won 1-0 one month later in Washington. I see a 4-3 game tonight, with the Oilers losing in OT.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: RNH scores. He has 3-3-6 in seven career games versus the Capitals.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: During the second period Orpik and Letestu end up in a footrace for a loose puck. Letestu wins the race and it leads to a goal. After the game Letestu jokingly boasts, “I think I’m ready to play one more minute a night now. I haven’t felt this fast since I was lighting up the AJHL for Bonnyville.”
Recently by Jason Gregor:   
  • What does it mean?
  • Nurse spent the summer working on puck skills
  • The Oilers are improving
  • GDB 5.0: A real test
  • GDB 4.0: Time for Action
  • Monday Musings: 10 things I see
  • A Fun Night For Hockey
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