Kris Russell: Another Perspective

Fellow Oilersnation writer Jason Gregor wrote a piece on Kris Russell that really highlighted the positives behind Kris Russell’s play this season. As we’ve never seen eye to eye on the job Russell has done here as an Oiler, I thought it might be interesting to do a response piece. Sort of another perspective touching on the same topics that Jason hit on yesterday.

I think we can both agree that Russell has been better through the first half of 2017-2018 than he was last season. Even those who do not see Russell in such a positive light would have to agree on that. Last season was a disaster from beginning to end. This season has had its share of problems, but also a lot more positives.

Probably the *most* positive change to Russell’s game has been with his offence. Last year, through 68 games, Russell picked up just 13 points. This year, through 41 games, he already has 16 which puts him on pace to get near his career high of 32 points. Coming into today’s game, he’s tied with Darnell Nurse for the lead in 5v5 scoring (by Oiler defensemen) with 13 points when a year ago he was fourth with 12 points. In terms of scoring rate, that is going from 0.60 P/60 to 1.24 P/60 so we can objectively say he is TWICE the offensive producer that he was a year ago.

I don’t use plus/minus because it’s 2018, but in terms of 5v5 goals for and against Kris Russell is +1 or 50.9% depending on how you look at it. That ranks him fifth of nine Oiler defenders who have played at least 100 5v5 minutes. He also has a 52.54 Fenwick percentage (FF%) which ranks him sixth of nine Oiler defenders.

As you all know, Kris Russell is also far and away the leader in blocked shots again this season with 121. Alec Martinez is in second place with 109 and he’s playing almost 24 minutes a night while Russell is averaging just 18:33 for the Oilers. Some people believe being on the ice for that many shots against is a good thing but I am not one of those people. I think it’s symptomatic of bigger problems – i.e. the other team always has the puck.

For example, his breakout passing is very poor and often lead to turnovers in the neutral zone. If zone exits are failed the puck comes back into the zone for extended periods of time. It’s a calling card of Kris Russell’s and has been for some time. The puck comes in, he backhands it around the boards to nobody in particular, the puck comes back, repeat as same. Do that enough times and someone tells Chiarelli that he’s the league leader in zone exits. We all have a chuckle.

I do happen to agree with Jason when he notes that Russell is doing better with fewer minutes this year compared to last. And Russell is a player who gives it his all. Considering how taxing it is to defend in your own zone and how much time he spends there, last season especially, he should be able to give more by dialling back that time. In fact, I wouldn’t be opposed to the suggestion that his offensive abilities were sacrificed last year due to his defensive limitations.

One area of concern for me is still how Russell does away from standout players like McDavid or Nurse, and how those players do when they’re away from him. The coaching staff has played Nurse, Klefbom, and Larsson with McDavid more than Russell has this season. Still, the skew that 97 puts on Russell’s numbers is high. Without McDavid, Kris Russell has a 48.6% Corsi (ninth of nine defenders) and a 50.4% Fenwick (sixth of nine defenders).*

The Nurse-Russell pairing was generally successful, especially early in their time together but the luster has come off a bit over time, as expected. They’ve settled into a place where the pair has a negative shot attempt percentage and goals for percentage relative to the team as per Corsica.Hockey. That’s -3.75 CF%Rel and -1.91 GF%Rel for the defensive pairing. Nurse himself has a 51.4% CF and a 55.5% FF with Russell, but a 57.1% CF and 57.2% FF without him. So it’s hard to imagine Nurse couldn’t be experiencing even more success with another partner.

Looking at WOWYS for Russell, 21 of 26 skaters who have played for the Oilers this season have better shot attempt metrics without Russell than he has without them. It’s a staggering reality that almost anyone who plays with Russell will see themselves spending less time in the offensive zone and more time in their own end.

As far as his disastrous contract goes, well that’s clearly a matter of opinion at this point. I see a team that still lists top 4 RHD as a need and the man holding that spot down on the roster (at least partially) isn’t playing on the PP, has had his minutes reduced from a year ago, isn’t likely to improve significantly, and isn’t actually right handed. Since Peter Chiarelli didn’t “go for it” improve the team in the offseason, we are seeing the effects of standing pat. It hasn’t been enjoyable.

With a full no movement clause in effect for another year after this one, and contracts kicking in for McDavid plus others needed for Nurse and other RFAs, it’s difficult to see a clear path to upgrading the blue line. We’ve avoided the pain of having the defenseman ranked 5^th in TOI/G making $4M because the Oilers have loads of cap space today (almost $2 million for every point back in the standing!). Without that space starting next season, the luxury of avoiding the reality that $4M for a third pairing guy is too much money in a cap world won’t be available.

From the offensive blue line inward, Kris Russell is twice the player he was a year ago. That alone makes up ground on the train-wreck of a season he had a season ago. He tries real hard and his Dad’s a legit cowboy, so that’s cool, but I still see a third pairing player who is still contributing to keeping the team at the wrong end of the ice more than it should.

As for Jason’s final point, the Oiler blue line as a whole has indeed been carried through a difficult time, but I think the player responsible for the bulk of the heavy lifting has been Kris Russell…….’s partner, Darnell Nurse. Nurse is a leader in every major statistical category for the Oilers defense and everyone who has played significant time with him has better numbers for it, Russell included.