Lauri Lately

Professional sport has always been a “what have you done for
me lately?” type of environment. Stop being effective and it’s game over.
Conversely, when you start doing something well you’re the toast of the town. However, your status as hero can change to goat and then back again in an instant.

Right now, in Oilerville, there is nobody who has turned his
ship around quite like Lauri Korpikoski. He’s had three goals in the last five
games he’s played since being named to team Finland. In that time he even managed to get three
straight periods as Connor McDavid’s left winger and played a season high 19:33
in his last game.

He’s surging to end this season.

What was his goal-scoring like before this last five game
stretch? He went 32 games without a goal before that.

Still, despite the extended failure that preceded this
recent push, Lauri Korpikoski isn’t just getting his shot with good linemates.
He has also been given Nail Yakupov’s spot on the 2nd power play
unit. It always makes me nervous when people finish the year doing something
they haven’t done regularly, good or bad.

Now Lauri Korpikoski isn’t a favourite of mine. I don’t find
him to be a very effective player by eye or by number. Frankly speaking, he’s
the worst player on the team. Is that backed up by any supporting evidence?
Well, he has the third worst ‘Goals For’ percentage (35.9%), worst ‘Shots
For’ percentage (42.7%), worst ‘Fenwick For’ percentage (42.8%), worst ‘Corsi For’
percentage (43.4%), and second worst ‘High Danger Scoring Chance For’ percentage
(38.6%). In short, he’s bad. Yes, even worse than Yakupov.

So naturally when Korpikoski gets the big minutes and status
push it starts to make me wonder what the heck is going on.

So what the heck IS going on? I see a few scenarios.

1) Hot Hand. It is entirely possible that the coach just
wants to go with the hot hand. Korpikoski has three goals in a little more than
a week. Let him keep going until the magic runs dry. McLellan’s not a dummy. He
just knows that NHL scoring can be streaky as hell and if someone is going then
why not ride that out?

2) Pump and Dump. The Oilers are on the hook for another
year of Korpikoski at a ridiculous 2.5 million dollars and for all the reasons
listed above they need to get out from under that contract. He’s been named to
team Finland, he’s scored recently, if the Oilers play their cards right they
might be able to make Korpikoski look like a real player over the last dozen
games. Some GM who didn’t hire a stats guy might fall for this.

3) Heart Eyes. This is worst case scenario. In this one the
Oilers actually believe they are better off with Lauri Korpikoski than they are
Nail Yakupov. He’s a big body, he grinds it out, he *looks* like a guy playing
Chiarelli hockey. Stats are for nerds, we believe in this guy and think he is
part of the solution moving forward. The decision has been made. Nail Yakupov
is out of the PP, out of the future for the club, out of chances. Korpikoski
has won the hearts and minds of the coaching staff and GM. *Shudder*

Which scenario are we actually in? I have no idea. I don’t have
that (or any) kind of access. All I can see is that over the last week LK has
caught lightning in a bottle and he’s taking advantage of the opportunities he’s
getting. Edmonton needs depth scoring so I’m not going to turn away any goals,
but I sincerely hope this team doesn’t focus so much on “What have you done for
me lately?” that a strong finish by Korpikoski convinces them that he’s
something other than what he really is.

The last impression is sports has always been
disproportionately valued compared to what someone did in the heart of the
season. Is Korpikoski’s latest impression swaying the Oiler coaching staff,
Oiler management, or someone else’s management? I fear the former and hope for
the later.