Mailbag Monday – Hall, Lucic, and Puljujarvi

What a week! This week, we see what the writers think of the Taylor Hall trade now that a few days have passed, the pros and cons of signing Lucic to a long term deal, Jesse Puljujarvi, and more. If you have a question for next week’s mailbag you can always feel free to fire off an email to baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Now let’s all gather around to kill some company time and learn something. 

Provide a time machine that will let me jump ahead three years and I’ll tell you. How can we know who will turn out better before they’ve played a single NHL game? The Oilers thought the Finn was that much better and they jumped at the chance to take him. That’s the bottom line.

Interesting question. I would put it this way: Jesse Puljuarvi was clearly one of the three best players in the draft. After that, from about 4-12, there was little clearance. I would say getting Puljujarvi represents a clear win. 

I think Puljujarvi is a much surer thing than Sergachev because of the fact he’s a forward compared to a defender. Puljujarvi was at one time ranked second behind Matthews and that lasted until at least the mid-season rankings. He ought to be a fantastic player. Sergachev could be great. He could step in right away, he could develop into an impact player after a couple more years in junior, or he could be like Nurse and take the extra years and still be rocked after stepping onto NHL ice. If I’m spending the fourth overall pick, I want to be sure of something.

That certainly seems to be the scouting consensus. Puljujarvi was exciting for Edmonton because he was both a fit for need — a 6’3″, 200-pound, two-way right-shooting winger — and also a fit for the new team philosophy, which emphasizes size and strength. Because he was such a fit for need and desire, it’s easy to forget that he was a consensus top-three pick, while Sergachev’s place on consensus lists was quite a bit lower.

He is at this point, but very hard to say how much better he’ll be in five years. Puljujarvi has been more consistent. I’d argue Sergachev might have more high-end big-play capabilities, but is he capable of becoming more consistent at the next level. Right now Puljujarvi looks like a safer bet to be a solid NHL player.

Not only will Puljujarvi be the better player, but by a lot of estimations he’s ready to step into the NHL right now. With Sergachev, and with all young defensemen, realistically he’s probably not making the team for at least two or three more years, let alone be an impact, top four guy. Long term, who knows what would have been better for the Oilers four or five years down the road? I was very high on Sergachev so I would have been happy had they traded down and picked him later in the top 10, but as of right now the Oilers are much better off with Puljujarvi.

At the moment Poolparty is the better player and there was no more evidence of that than by how quickly Peter Chiarelli ran up to the stage to call his name. Puljujarvi can help the Oilers now (in sheltered minutes) while Sergachev may be a couple years away. 

They traded a sure thing for a maybe and that’s something everybody said for months they could not do — even though some people have done a flip-flop since then. Larsson might become the first-pairing D-man the Oilers need, but my contention always was that “might” can’t be part of the equation in a deal for Taylor Hall. I was willing to trade him if need be, but only for a proven commodity.

I was not surprised he was dealt, his name had been in play. I was very surprised at the return. I think Larsson is a fine two-way defender and will make a good Oiler. Edmonton did not win this trade by a wide margin.

First reaction was “And what else?” When it became clear there was nothing else I felt angry and betrayed by a hockey team. I felt my confidence in them disappear. I mean it was like I could feel my trust in Chiarelli physically slipping out of my body. I am still disgusted by this trade as it failed to acquire an impact defender for Edmonton’s second best player. The Oilers aren’t good enough to lose trades like this.

I thought it was a bad trade which shipped out an elite talent and brought in a player who wasn’t close to being Hall’s equal. Now that I’ve had time to digest, the fact that Edmonton couldn’t dump a salary or get a pick back takes on more significance, as does the fact that the team still needs an offensive defenceman and just sent away its most valuable trading chip. So the reasons I saw it as a bad trade have been fleshed out.

I didn’t like it. For me it reflects a bit of the overall “safe” attitude of the NHL. Hall is a driver, and yes there are areas of his game he could improve, but straight up I don’t see them winning this trade. If Klefbom, Davidson and Nurse keep developing along with Larsson then the Oilers’ defence will be better, and because the Oilers still have McDavid, Drai, Eberle, RNH and now Lucic, they should have enough offence to make up for the void left by Hall. I just hope people don’t have unrealistic expectations of what Larsson will be because he was traded for Hall. If he becomes a solid #2 Dman then Chiarelli will be happy. Chiarelli is adamant he’ll be that.

I was stunned and shocked, and now I’m sad, coming to terms with the fact that Hall is no longer an Oiler, and disappointed that Chiarelli made the type of move that the old management would have made, which he was supposed to come here and correct. This isn’t a knock on Adam Larsson, he’s a fine defensemen, but the Oilers didn’t need a fine defensemen, they needed an elite defensemen, and the worst part is they STILL DO. This is the same cycle of trading away a valuable asset for a asset that MAY be worth it at some point, but isn’t right now. Pennies On The Dollar: How To Trade Like An Edmonton Oilers General Manager hits bookstores this October!

Absolute shock. I just kept waiting for something else to come back, but that wasn’t the case. Hall for Larsson — straight across. To me Chiarelli was the guy that was trolling for babes after last call and brought home the first person that looked at him. It didn’t help when word trickled out that other GMs didn’t know that Hall was officially on the market. I hope the trade works out, but at face value the Oilers got murdered.

The defence is better with Larsson but the forward group just lost one of the five best LWs in the league. The Oilers needed, and still need, to bolster that blueline. That doesn’t equate to doing so at any cost and any level of overpayment.

No. At the time of this writing, Edmonton has traded Hall and bought out Korpikoski. The weekend results may improve the team, but the trade as a stand alone did not improve the team in my estimation. 

What makes swapping Hall for Larsson better? I’ve heard people argue this all the time, but no I don’t believe it for a second. Taylor Hall’s on-ice numbers over his entire career show that his impact on the Oilers was immense. The team was competitive in terms of goal scoring/prevention when he was on it and abysmal off of it. Does Adam Larsson even move the dial for the Oilers? Just because he’s a defender doesn’t mean he’s going to do more to make the Oil better than Hall. For impacting goals for and against, I will take Hall’s 18 minutes a night over Larsson’s 22 every day of the week. That’s the name of the game.

Maybe. Here’s the problem: Edmonton didn’t just struggle to defend last year, it also struggled to score. With McDavid hurt for half the year, a lot of the time the team had only one scoring line, the line driven by Hall. Next year the defence should be more balanced, but Nugent-Hopkins has never been a great five-on-five scorer and Draisaitl’s numbers sans Hall last year were wretched, so there’s a risk that the Oilers are a one-line team. That’s not the real concern, though. The real concern is that over the long haul the Oilers have wrecked their ability to run two elite lines. As long as both Hall and McDavid were on the roster that might have been possible.

If next year McDavid, Klefbom, Eberle, Davidson and RNH miss significant time due to injuries and the Oilers have more points then you can say they are. If those players stay healthy the Oilers would be better, and I wouldn’t say it was due to Larsson’s addition.

IMO no they aren’t. If you’re asking me would I rather have a team with Connor McDavid and Taylor Hall over a team with Connor McDavid, Milan Lucic and Adam Larsson I will go with McDavid and Hall every time. I’m actually really interested to see how long it takes before a lot of people realize just how valuable Hall was. His time here was wasted, he was undervalued and under appreciated by a lot of people, and his absence will be very noticeable this season. And again, this is no knock on either Larsson nor Lucic; I love both of them being Edmonton Oilers, but (and again this is just MY OPINION) they don’t make up for what the Oilers are losing in Taylor Hall.

Maybe. Personally, I would have rather had Hall + Lucic + Demers over Lucic + Larsson but who knows if that was even a possibility? I like Larsson, but the problem I have is that the Oilers put him in a really tough spot. He has to be a top pairing guy right now. Not tomorrow. Now. He’ll forever be the guy that they traded Taylor Hall to get and if he doesn’t come in and play well right away then Oilers fans are going to be on his case in a hurry. I’m hoping for the best, but Oilers fans can turn on you in a heartbeat. 

Edmonton. The Habs get Weber from age 31-40 with a huge price tag. They got a diminishing asset for a player just entering his prime years.

Edmonton. Both overpaid for defensemen, but the Oilers got a player on the upswing.

Montreal. Shea Weber is not as good as PK Subban but he can still impact the outcome of games. The Oilers trade was arguably the worst in franchise history if we assume Gretzky was a sale. The Hall trade is potentially the worst NHL deal in the last decade. It was a complete and total failure.

That’s really tough, because both did so badly. I’m going to say Montreal did worse because of the respective ages of the four players moved.

Good question. Today, the Habs did better because Weber and Subban, while different players, are very close in talent. Both have some long term risks because Weber is four years older than Subban and his play will likely drop before Subban’s. However, I think Nashville won the trade.

Oh Edmonton hands down. You can at least look at the Hall/Larsson trade and convince yourself that it’s not an embarrassingly terrible trade (which it is) by looking at it as the Oilers trading a type of player of which they had a lot of for the type of player of which they didn’t and very much needed. With the Subban/Weber trade the Habs traded an elite defensemen, for an older, more expensive, not as good version of roughly the same player on an even longer contract. It’s going to be funny watching Bergevin and Therien come to the realization that it’s not 2010 anymore, and they’re stuck with Shea Weber until he’s like 45 years old. I can’t wait!

I can’t believe the Canadiens traded Subban for Weber. Right now, in 2016, this trade could be pretty even but I doubt we’ll be saying that in a few years when Weber is in his mid 30s and making huge money. Not to mention, he’s under contract until the end of time. The funniest part about it was that Bergevin allegedly had issues with Subban’s personality but then he goes and brings in Alex Radulov. Derp.

The cons aren’t obvious? With any contract that takes a player into his mid-30s, there’s a good possibility the player won’t live up to the contract in the final years of the deal. The vast majority of players decline in their 30s and that’s often more true with players who play the physical game Lucic does.

Pros are that when people say they are looking for a Milan Lucic type player, they really mean they are looking for Milan Lucic. He is unique. Con: We do not know how long he will remain this version of Mulan Lucic.

Pro: He’s a legitimate top six left winger and true power forward who stays healthy and crushes people.

Con: The final 2-3 years of his deal will be entirely too scary to consider given his age. Players take good care of themselves and should be able to play a long time, but big bodies break down fast.

The pros are easy. Milan Lucic is an excellent hockey player, a legitimate first-line talent based on his 5v5 scoring and puck possession numbers. He’s also big and mean, and that’s a nice element to have in the top-six. The cons are easy, too. For every Scott Hartnell it feels like there’s a Dustin Brown and a David Clarkson; there’s a risk that the sell-by date comes early. Lucic’s personal shot totals fell last year. A long-term deal, and especially one with an NMC and massive signing bonuses, can turn into an albatross contract if the player’s skills erode.

Pros are he will help them right away. He’ll add a veteran presence in their top-six, something they’ve lacked for many years, who can be an impact player.

Cons are: will he still be effective in the later years of the deal? In years three to seven of his contract many are hoping the Oilers are a legit contender and the concerns will be whether his play will match his cap hit.

I mean, I think the only pro of a long term deal is that is what it would take to sign him. The cons are A) he’s PROBABLY not going to be worth $6 million a year for more than the first tow or three years of that deal, B) power forwards fall off a cliff very fast, so we could be looking at a very rapid decline barely halfway through the contract and C) I assume it may be kind of difficult to trade the last few years of 33-34-35 year old Milan Lucic at $6 million a year. But Chiarelli will be long fired by then, so it’ll be someone else’s problem!

Pros are easy. It’s Milan Lucic! How many years have we talked about a guy like this? How many articles have been written? Now he’s here, and it’s beautiful.

Cons are also easy. That contract is too long by a couple years, but that’s the price you have to pay to get UFAs so I wasn’t surprised. I highly doubt he’ll be the same player he is today in seven years, but we can cross that bridge when we get there. The crazy part was that there were actually rumours that he may get more which would have been wild. Besides, I’d rather have Lucic on a seven year deal than Andrew Ladd.

 

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