Monday Mailbag – April 27th
By baggedmilk
8 years ago
Another week has passed, and what a week it was! From Connor McDavid to a new management regime, this has been one of the biggest weeks in Oilers history. It feels as though the sun is permanently shining in OilersNation and it feels good. Spirits are high, and hope is in abundance – when was the last time we could say that? As always, the mailbag depends on you. If you have a question you can email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Enjoy.
1) Christopher L. asks – If the rumours are true and Peter Chiarelli is interviewing for the POHO job how much of an upgrade would he be over Kevin Lowe? ***BM NOTE: This question was submitted to the writers on Wednesday and Chiarelli was obviously announced on Friday***
Lowetide:
It’s actually an upgrade over Craig MacTavish, and that should help MacT succeed. That’s how it looks from here, anyway.
Jonathan Willis:
I’d like the record to reflect that my answer will probably be out of date by the time this runs. With that out of the way: I think people consistently and greatly overrate Kevin Lowe’s contribution to the mess that is the Oilers. He’s the guy whose name is still on the organizational roll call, so he catches the flak, but there were significant stylistic shifts in how the Oilers were run from Lowe to Steve Tambellini and again from Tambellini to Craig MacTavish. I don’t think Lowe is god’s gift to hockey, but I also don’t think firing him is going to do much because I’m extremely skeptical as to how much sway he actually has.
Jeanshorts:
I mean obviously only time will tell, but let’s just look at them on paper:
On one side you have Peter Chiarelli who led the Bruins to seven straight playoff births, four seasons of 100+ points, a Presidents Trophy, two Stanley Cup finals, and a cup win. And during his tenure the Bruins were behind only the Kings and Blackhawks in terms of winning percentage. I mean we all know they’ve been one of the leagues premier teams for a decade.
On the other side you have Kevin Lowe who, aside from catching lightning in a bottle in 06, has run the absolute worst team in the league over that same decade, which has included back to back 30th place finishes and THREE first overall draft picks in a row. And, as we all know painfully well, the team hasn’t improved an iota, and, in fact, has arguably gotten worse over time.
So, basically like night and day?
Jason Gregor:
He has a very good track record and he has many years of experience as a scout, assistant GM and GM. I believe his biggest strength in Boston was building his blueline. He signed Chara as a UFA. He acquired Dennis Seidenberg and Matt Bartowski in the same trade and gave up Byron Bitz and Craig Weller. He also traded for Johnny Boychuk, Andrew Ference, Adam McQuaid.
Robin Brownlee:
If the Oilers are to be believed that Lowe was at arm’s length in the decision-making process as POHO with Tambellini and MacTavish as GMs, then you can’t compare. Chiarelli won’t come here to be in the background or simply be a sounding board on day-to-day decisions. That aside, how do you address an upgrade before he even starts? Results will tell the story.
Matt Henderson:
Turns out they were very true! The Oilers while Lowe was the POHO were the worst team in the NHL by far. He hired two brutal GMs in Tambellini and MacT and the vision of the team lacked clarity. They would be bad, but for how long? What step was next? When would they turn the corner? Above all, winning was no longer a goal even as Hall enters his 6th season in the Fall. Chiarelli ought to be a huge upgrade just by being semi-competent.
Baggedmilk:
The biggest difference between the era of Chiarelli and the previous regime has to be experience, right? Peter Chiarelli has more experience as a GM than our previous two GMs combined. For me, that means something. The Oilers have been guided by men fighting above their weight class for too long, and it’s nice to have someone with some seasoning in there for once.
2) Chad Z. asks – Other markets are praying that McDavid will “Lindros” the Oilers. Do you think there is any chance he decides to do that?
Lowetide:
Every indication we’ve heard has this young man accepting the NHL’s draft rules and entering the draft. You’re never 100% sure until he’s drafted and signed, but the days of Lindros were a different time and this young man’s parents appear to be reasonable folks. Apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, most times.
Jonathan Willis:
No, I don’t. The Lindros thing was a perfect storm of several factors, including the way that playing in the French-language Quebec City market would impact his ability to collect endorsements and the like. Those factors aren’t in play here.
Jeanshorts:
Zero chance. Just like Mr. McDavid told Connor when he was drafted by the Otters and was debating whether or not to pull a no-show, no one wants to be known as “That Guy”. Eric Lindros was one of my favourite players growing up but I also distinctly remember always hearing about this “character issues” throughout his entire career. And IF McDavid did decide to say thanks but no thanks to the Oilers, how does that look to other teams? He’s a once in a lifetime talent, for sure, but I would have to question signing a guy who only wants to play if specific conditions are met for him. How long would it take for the bloom to fall off the rose with this different club, and he demands a trade to yet another team? These guys have worked their asses of their entire (short) lives to make it to the NHL. I have a hard time believing any of them, even the best of the best, would turn down the opportunity to play for any NHL team, even one as disappointing and directionless as these current Oilers.
And as an aside I love that “Lindrossing” is being tossed around as a burn directed at the Oilers. If I remember correctly the Avalanche ended up winning two cups not long after that trade, and Philly, umm, well they got to watch Lindros’ soul leave his body thanks to Scott Stevens, so…
Jason Gregor:
None. Lindros did that in junior as well, shunning Sault Ste.Marie and eventually going to Oshawa. McDavid won’t do it. It is a major insult to him for people to even suggest it.
Robin Brownlee:
No. None. Zero. That’s already been made clear, McDavid isn’t THAT guy.
Matt Henderson:
None. Zero. Zilch. His parents, coach, team owner, and agent have all said he would report to Edmonton happily. Other markets are just Jealous.
Baggedmilk:
Jealousy is an ugly trait, no? He’s coming – don’t worry about it.
3) Clutch asks – So now that the Oil have struck gold, diamonds and titanium with Connor McDavid, who do you think they will draft with the pick they got from Pittsburgh?
Lowetide:
If they make the pick, I hope Timo Meier is there, or Oliver Kylington. BPA baby, there’s 20+ great names in this draft!
Jonathan Willis:
I think they’ll trade it. If Oilers fans are lucky, the trade will be for a defenceman.
Jeanshorts:
I don’t know enough about the draft outside of the top five to make any kind of legitimate suggestion, but if this was NHL ’15 I’d look at packaging that pick with a later pick and/or a prospect (Chase or Pitlick maybe?) and see if you can somehow ply a guy like Oduya or Adam McQuaid out of a cap strapped team like Chicago or Boston.
Jason Gregor:
The pick will either be #15 or #16, and it is impossible to predict who will be available at that pick, or if they even use it. Many assume it will be a Dman, but only if he is best player on the board at that time. If Thomas Chabot is available I could see them looking at him, or big, skilled wingers like Mikko Rantanen or Paul Bittner.
Robin Brownlee:
My best guess is they’ll put that pick in play leading into and at the draft. After that, it all depends on what offers they get coming back.
Matt Henderson:
Nobody. I think the Rangers will pick someone pretty good at that spot though.
Baggedmilk:
I hope they trade it for some help in net/the backend. If this draft is as deep as people say than the value of said pick would go up, no? Either that or redraft Connor McDavid. This kid is so good that I don’t think it’s unreasonable to draft him at 1st and again at 16th. Ballsy!
4) David G asks – The Oilers defied the odds and managed to win the McJesus sweepstakes. Who is the best option to coach this team with this player moving forward? Do we reward Nelson for not completely embarrassing us down the stretch? Do we target ex-Shark McLennan because his record is like Ardbeg creme brulee? Does Bylsma’s history with developing Crosby mean anything? Someone else?
Lowetide:
Great questions! I don’t know the answer, but would say Todd Nelson did some nice things. I’d also suggest Todd McLellan’s power play would be a nice add and until Mike Babcock has signed elsewhere Edmonton should keep their options open.
Jonathan Willis:
McLellan is a good coach, Bylsma is a good coach and Nelson is a good coach. For that matter, Craig MacTavish is a good coach in the event that Peter Chiarelli is in town to talk about taking over the general manager job. Realistically, McLellan as head coach with Nelson as associate coach is probably the best plausible outcome for the Oilers.
Jeanshorts:
For me the dream scenario is having Todd McLellan come on as head coach and Todd Nelson agreeing to stay on as an associate. I do think Nelson deserves a full season, but when a guy with the resume of Todd McLellan becomes available you have to pursue him as a legitimate option. Unfortunately for Nelson he just doesn’t have the NHL experience and track record McLellan has.
Jason Gregor:
McClellan will be at the top of the list. I wouldn’t say Bylsma developed Crosby considering he got the job in March of 2009, Crosby’s fouth year, and the Penguins had been to the Cup final the previous year. Babcock, if he doesn’t re-sign withDetroit would be a strong candidate of course, but do you wait and see if he becomes available and possibly lose out on Mclellan? That will be Nicholson’s biggest decision. The advantage the Oilers have is that Nicholson has worked with many of the top coaches — Babcock, Hitchcock, Julien, etc — with team Canada so he knows them well and which one would be the best fit here.
Robin Brownlee:
The Oilers have already approached McLellan. If he wants the job I’d hope the Oilers at least sit down with him and discuss Nelson as an option for associate coach.
Matt Henderson:
It’s between two coaches and if not them then Nelson is the backup, IMO. The next coach will either be McLellan or Babcock. The Oilers are proving to the hockey world that they aren’t pissing around anymore. McDavid changed everything. Chiarelli makes the job even more alluring. I’m guessing Babcock ultimately stays in Detroit so I guess it’s McLellan.
Baggedmilk:
I feel bad for Todd Nelson in the sense that he’s been flapping in the wind since being hired as the interim coach. With the additions of McDavid and Chiarelli you’d have to think he now knows that he has no chance at that job, right? I would hope whoever the new coach may be would consider keeping him on as an associate coach. I think keeping him on (if he’s even interested in that) would also help the transition of yet ANOTHER new coach.
5) Clyde R. asks – With the addition of Conor McDavid should the Oilers really be able to treating next season as a “developmental” year? Isn’t there added pressure on management to improve?
Lowetide:
God yes. The Oilers need to turn north! However, I am not in favour of sending away multiple draft picks to get it done. I’d prefer a trade involving one pick for a defenseman and signing a free-agent goalie. Turn north, but remember it’s a marathon not a sprint.
Jonathan Willis:
There certainly should be, though within reason. I do think 2015-16 is primarily going to be a development year, but there’s no excuse for MacTavish to twiddle his thumbs and draft young kids. If he can’t actively improve the blue line and goaltending in the summer he shouldn’t be working for the Oilers.
Jeanshorts:
Before this Chiarelli news dropped my gut reaction was that this golden ticket was going to buy Kiki and MacT at least two more years of benefit of the doubt from the man with all the flu shots. And I can still see that being a possibility, but with Bob Nicholson looking to have wheels actually in motion for once, and if this Chiarelli thing doesn’t end up with MacT out of the GMs seat, I think this gives him one more year MAX to prove the Oilers have taken a step forward and are actively trying to build a legit support crew around McDavid And The Firsts. They’ve already wasted enough years spinning the wheels while Hall, Nuge, Yak and Ebs learned to grow moustaches, they can’t afford to waste many more while McDavid’s talent is squandered.
Jason Gregor:
Does McDavid suddenly make Schultz, Klefbom and Marincin more experienced? He is a great talent, but he can’t magically instill experience across the Oilers lineup and make them all better. This team is still two years away from being a real contender, and McDavid’s arrival will give the entire organization a shot in the arm, but no one should expect him to be a miracle worker. Crosby’s Penguins didn’t make the playoffs his first year. The Flyers didn’t in Lindros’ first two, and the Penguins didn’t make the postseason until Lemieux’s fifth season. The NHL is a team-oriented league more than an individual league, and McDavid is a great piece to have, but the Oilers roster at the end of last season, needs at least seven or eight new players to be a contender, not just one 18-year-old phenom.
Robin Brownlee:
Of course there’s pressure to improve. That pressure should exist every year. McDavid by himself won’t make a huge difference as an 18-year-old rookie. MacTavish still has a lot of work to do to ensure the team moves up in the standings. If MacTavish doesn’t address needs in goal and on the blue line, the Oilers will be a bottom five team again.
Matt Henderson:
No I don’t think they can and I think that misguided vision is part of what lead Nicholson to replace Hockey Ops. I don’t think anyone knew how much pressure this group was under. It feels like Nicholson gave them all enough rope to hang themselves with.
Baggedmilk:
I think McDavid changes a lot of that. The Oilers can’t burn through his ELC without making some progress in the standings. That being said, they have to improve in so many areas that I just can’t see them making the playoffs next year without Chiarelli doing a massive overhaul to the backend.
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