Monday Mailbag – Darnell Nurse’s next contract

It’s that wonderful time again, dear friends. A fall chill is in the air, training camp is underway, and a brand new NHL season is nearly upon us. As always, the mailbag is back and we’re answering the questions you have leading into the 2019-20 season and beyond. As always, our panel of experts bloggers dove into the depths of their experience to give you every pearl of wisdom their brains could muster and all for the low, low price of absolutely nothing. As always, this feature depends on you guys so I need you to submit your questions. If you have something you’d like to know you can always email me, or DM me on Twitter. With that out of the way, it’s time to learn something. Enjoy.

If you dig into Benning’s numbers they weren’t that bad. He was one of the few players who had a positive GF-GA differential. Larsson has to bounce back for the Oilers to be better. He is healthier so that will help.

Larsson. He’s come into camp lighter and, by all accounts, is in a far better frame of mind. If his head and his heart are in sync now that some time has gone by since the passing of his father in 2018, he’ll return to the form he’s shown in the past. I don’t think it’s possible to overstate how much he went through.

Matt Benning has always been fairly good when playing in a third-pairing role. It’s when he plays above his head that he struggles. I figure him and Kris Russell will be a solid third pairing. Larsson has played his best alongside a fully healthy Oscar Klefbom, so it’s hard to say how effective he’ll be playing tough minutes with Darnell Nurse.

I think they’re both decent bets to have better seasons than they did in 18/19. Benning showed some real nice potential at certain points last season but battled consistency issues. Larsson is a solid veteran d-man — I really can’t see him having two poor seasons in a row. Hopefully, the new coaching staff and having consistent, healthy D partners will both help them out this year.

I’m going with Matt Benning, which may be a surprising choice. Adam Larsson will turn 27 in November. That’s not old by any stretch but his skating or puck handling isn’t getting better. Benning started his career very well but hasn’t quite been the same since injuries. He moves the puck well and I’m curious to see what he looks like with injuries behind him.

Adam Larsson had a pretty tough 2018-19 season so I’m going to go with him. I think he’ll get back to his usual standard of play which will be a big upgrade over what we saw from him a season ago.

I’m sure it will be looked at. If Nurse produces close to 40 points again this season and continues to improve defensively, I think his new salary will start with a six for sure.

Nurse plays more minutes and has scored at a slightly higher rate than Morrissey, plus he brings a more physical dimension, so I see him coming in higher than that $6.25M AAV.

Nurse will earn more than Josh Morrissey given the fact he plays more minutes and has more of a two-way game. He has to prove this year he can be that true top-pairing defenceman because the Oilers can’t afford to dish out $6.5 million annually to a second pairing guy. I still think, given Edmonton’s lack of forwards and bevy of good defence prospects, that a trade should be explored.

I think it’s a fair deal. Like most long-term deals for RFA’s, it might be a slight overpayment for the first few years but I expect that deal will quickly turn into a bargain. If the Oilers signed Nurse to that exact deal, I would be happy with it. It seems to be the going rate for a young, top-four defenceman.

That would probably be at the upper limit of how much I’d go on a Nurse extension. I think we’ll see his points fall back to normal with Oscar Klefbom or Joel Persson manning the power play, which should make his cap hit go down.

That’s a lot of cake, isn’t it? But probably in line with what we’ll be looking at for Darryl on a long term deal. I guess it all depends on what kind of season he has in 2019-20, but he’ll be in line for a massive payday either way.

He wanted to play. He simply couldn’t. He couldn’t train to the level necessary to compete in the NHL. Players are more informed about their health today, but they are also compensated much better and in many cases that can make the decision much easier.

Players are more aware of their health and the potential risks to it now than they have ever been. Most make enough money now to walk away when they start to break down. It doesn’t matter how much money you have if you can’t get out of bed and live your life after hockey or whatever sport you play. We’ll likely see more big names walk away in what used to be considered the prime of their careers, but there are always more young players on the way looking for spots on the marquee.

People are more and more aware of the long-term ramifications of injuries suffered in professional sports, so it wouldn’t shock me to see both to continue to trend to becoming a young man’s game. I think we’ll see fewer and fewer players in their 30s as time goes along.

It will no doubt affect them. Andrew Luck was the shining example and I think this will just lead to leagues getting younger and younger. Over the last ten years, the NHL has started to shift to a point where the best players are often under 25. If more veteran guys are starting to retire younger, then it just makes room for more younger, cheaper players to take over.

I don’t think there will be a huge change immediately, but it’s definitely in athlete’s minds. People are already talking about Cam Newton not looking the same and maybe leaving football like Andrew Luck. There won’t be a flood of players retiring, but we know more about the risks and that will have to be taken into account now.

Honestly, I could see guys retiring a little bit earlier if it means a better quality of life down the road. For a guy like Andrew Luck, he has $100 million in the bank and I respect the fact that he’d rather people to remember his own name when he’s 60 rather than continue grinding it out in a league that’s destroying his body. For Brodziak, the guy has had a hell of a career and it makes sense for him to think of his family and future and step away rather than try to grind out another year or two.

I think they look good. I like them better than their original blue and grey third jersey.

I think they’re OK, but the whole third jersey thing is getting tired in my opinion. It’s mostly just marketing now, but the impact of deviating from original jerseys isn’t what it once was because teams have too many of them. In many cases, the “third jersey” is the ninth, 10th or 11th jersey.

I think they’ll look nice on the ice. I don’t mind that they’re trying something new, though it is a little but simple for my liking. It matches up with the general aesthetic Adidas is going for.

Now that I’ve seen the players wearing them in full gear I don’t hate them as much as when they first got leaked. At the end of the day, they’re third jerseys and I suppose they’re supposed to be a little different. I wish the Oilers would bring back the royal blue colour on a full-time basis but that’s not going to happen anytime soon. Their best jersey combo ever was the three jerseys they had in 2016/17. Those were all beautiful.

I thought it was lame and a hockey version of the Chicago Bears, but the more I see it, the more I like it. I’d make it their home jersey.

I actually think they look alright now that I’ve seen Connor and Leon wearing them. To take that a step further, I bet they’ll look dope on TV. I mean, I won’t be buying one or anything but I’m certainly not as bummed out about them as some folks seem to be.

Very little chance they win the Pacific. Playoffs are 50/50 for me. I suspect McDavid is higher than 116 as he has improved offensively every season and he is just coming into his prime. Draisaitl likely over as well, but individual stats are tough.

I like over 83.5 points. Doesn’t mean they make the playoffs, but a five-point improvement seems very attainable for me. I don’t get great odds though…

I’d take the over on 83.5 points.

Take the over on McDavid. He’s going to explode this year. I would also put money on the Oilers making the playoffs with that in mind. Maybe I’ve been enjoying the Kool-Aid too much.

Oh, I like this question. The last three options all look enticing to me. If Leon and Connor play together again, they will both likely hit the over on those marks and just based on the fact you’re getting almost even money on the team getting more than 83.5 points, I would take a hard look at that.

Put $100 on Draisaitl scoring less than 95.5 points.

I’m taking the over on McDavid’s 116 points. He had 116 last year and I feel like he’s going to blow through 120 this upcoming season. Easy money.