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Monday Mailbag – Deadline Strategies

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Photo credit:Tom Kostiuk
baggedmilk
6 years ago
My friends, let’s all gather round and learn something as we dive into the questions you sent in for this week’s mailbag. In this edition, we take a look at avoiding college players in the draft, deadline strategies, players showing some emotion, and more. If you have a question for next week, you can always hit me up through email or on Twitter. Until then, enjoy.
Sep 18, 2017; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers left wing Drake Caggiula (91) against the Calgary Flames during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Edmonton Oilers won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
1) Ron asks – There has been a trend in recent years for the better NCAA players to complete their college careers, then opt to take the steps necessary for free agency rather than sign with the team that drafted them. Given that risk, would you use a top 10 pick on Brady Tkachuk?
Jason Gregor:
Very rarely do top-ten picks do this. Picks later in the draft have, but not top picks, since most of them don’t stay in college that long. Tkachuk is a late 1999 birthday. I won’t be surprised if he plays maybe one more year of college and then leaves to turn pro. I don’t see much risk in drafting him and then him not signing.
Robin Brownlee:
He’s bigger than Matthew, can skate and plays with an edge. If you have him rated top 10, you take him top 10. I’m not sure a handful of players opting for free agency over the last several years from the overall number that get drafted qualifies as a trend.
Matt Henderson:
I think the Tkachuks have hockey in their blood and the Oilers have a new arena and the best player in the world on their team. I wouldn’t be afraid to draft anyone. Someone has to say no to a lot more than Edmonton’s weather as long as McDavid is here. This isn’t a situation most players dread.
Cam Lewis:
I don’t think Brady Tkachuk has given any indication that he plans to miss multiple years in the NHL to play college hockey. This is a thing for guys like Drake Caggiula who weren’t drafted and for guys like Matt Benning who were late-round picks. I can’t think of a time in recent memory where a top draft pick from the NCAA held out, as Justin Schultz and Jimmy Vesey were both picks outside of the first round. I would happily select Tkachuk with a high pick.
Chris the Intern:
I don’t think the trend is strong enough right now to comfortably wait until he’s finished his college career. Someone’s bound to pick him up before then so yes I would use a top 10 draft pick on him. Either that or I’m not properly understanding the question.
Baggedmilk:
I don’t think there’s anything to be concerned about. A guy like Brock Boeser was recently drafted later on in the first round and the Canucks had no issues. I guess you’re thinking of Jimmy Vessey or Justin Schultz? Not a lot of those guys blow off the teams that drafted them.
Email sent from: “Grant, Rob” rgrant@thestar.ca Subject: gettychiarelli Date: 12 April, 2015 8:14:40 PM EDT Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli LOS ANGELES, CA – JUNE 25: General Manager of the Boston Bruins Peter Chiarelli attends the 2010 NHL Entry Draft at Staples Center on June 25, 2010 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
2) Dave asks – For the purposes of this question pretend that you’re playing the role of Peter Chiarelli. What is your strategy heading into deadline day?
Jason Gregor:
To improve the team for next year. I’d be looking to find another Patrick Maroon, who was acquired at the 2016 deadline for very little. Gaining a mid-round might help in four or five years if the Oilers make a good pick and develop the player properly, but I’d be looking to help the team for next season.
Robin Brownlee:
I’m focused on the big picture. There’s no need to make deals where the primary purpose is to salvage this season or make a playoff push. My only concern is acquiring what this team needs for next season and beyond. Most of that will be done over the summer, not at the deadline. Do not go into next September hoping you have the right pieces in place (like with right wing this season).
Matt Henderson:
Maximize the return for Maroon. There have been some reports that sellers are asking for the moon so if Chiarelli can get a handle on the market (not his strong suit) he might be able to get a decent return on Maroon. Maybe it’s a first, maybe it’s a decent prospect. It all depends on if other sellers are pricing themselves out. Maroon is the best chip they have but after that, I would be looking for actual bodies in exchange for anyone else.
Cam Lewis:
Sell on all of the impending unrestricted free agents. The market appears to favour the seller as a bunch of mediocre teams are jammed in the middle of the standings thanks to false parity and the loser point. Capitalize on it.
Chris the Intern:
Honestly, the thought of tanking is fun and all but I don’t think that’s the right mindset to give this team right now. I would make the moves necessary that I feel would give us our best shot at a playoff spot. The draft lottery gods will hopefully be good to us if we fall short of a miraculous run.
Baggedmilk:
I put on my favourite checkered jacket and try to get something of value for all my expiring UFA contracts. I’d rather keep Maroon and move Lucic but I don’t think that’s an option given the contract and that Chiarelli is the GM.
Nov 3, 2017; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) skates with the puck against the New Jersey Devils during the first period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
3) Ian asks – What were your thought when you saw Todd McLellan would be playing Draisaitl with McDavid against the Avalanche despite Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ injury?
Jason Gregor:
I had no issue with it. I like seeing Khaira at centre. He and Strome are showcasing for next season. The Oilers EV play isn’t the issue. Their special teams are killing them. Their PP was a disaster again and the PK has been all season.
Robin Brownlee:
Didn’t give it any thought. McLellan had success running balanced lines with those three in the middle for awhile, but sometimes he decides loading up one line is the way to go. Avs having Nate MacKinnon out might have played into it. Coaching decision.
Matt Henderson:
I’m split down the middle. Half of me thinks it’s the coach giving up on the idea that Draisaitl is a centre, which has to kill Chia a bit. The other half thinks that the situation on the wings is just so bad that without Drai there’s just not enough to fill the top two lines. It can be one or the other…or both.
Cam Lewis:
You kind of have to see if Ryan Strome can be a worthwhile centre to determine whether he’s actually a part of the team’s long-term plans. Despite what we all want to believe, the season is over and they’re auditioning players for roles next season. Same goes with JJ Khaira, who will now have a chance to show if he can be a good bottom-six centre.
Chris the Intern:
A little odd due to the major lack of centre depth, but at this point of the season, what do we have to lose? I understand giving Jujhar a shot at centre. He deserves a chance.
Baggedmilk:
I thought it was weird. The depth at centre with Drai on the wing and RNH out of the lineup is not great, so I was surprised when I saw the lineups. I get why McLellan wants a line that can score but Leon got paid to drive his own line, not be a winger. Maybe this means Nuge stays for sure? Dare to dream.
4) Drew asks – By the time this is posted, the Oilers will have 32 games left in the season. What is your record prediction for this final leg of the season?
Jason Gregor:
I say they win 17 games. 17-14-1. Not good enough to get close to the playoffs.
Robin Brownlee:
I see 36 points. Divide it up however you choose.
Matt Henderson:
13-16-3 with a higher winning percentage before the deadline than after it. This season can scarcely afford to lose more skill and the final stretch might be a death march.
Cam Lewis:
Hopefully they lose a bunch more games than they win to improve their lottery odds. That said, I bet we see a bittersweet late-season push and they go something like 18-12-2.
Chris the Intern:
I would love to believe in a huge playoff push, but with the absence of Nuge and Larsson right now, it’s extremely challenging to feel confident in it. 16-12-4
Baggedmilk:
The Oilers are six games under .500 (counting OTLs) and all I want is for them to get back to being even so I can stop eating beets.
5) Trent asks – I love when players show some personality and I thought the McDavid “check upstairs” comment was a riot. What is your favourite player moment, hockey or otherwise, where they let their emotions take control?
Jason Gregor:
Terrell Owens running to midfield and spiking the ball on the Cowboys logo after scoring a TD.
Robin Brownlee:
This is going to be way too old for most of our readers to remember because it will be exactly 51 years tomorrow (Feb. 6) since it happened. It was delivered by Muhammad Ali in a bout against Ernie Terrell at the Houston Astrodome. Leading into the fight, Terrell insisted on calling Ali by his given name, Cassius Clay, rather than recognize his newly adopted name, calling it a promotional stunt. In the eighth round, with Terrell battered and bleeding, Ali repeatedly shouted, “What’s my name, what’s my name?” while delivering countless blows. This incident, leading up to Ali’s conviction for draft evasion, was a historical moment. Not exactly a sizzling sports entertainment moment, but, for me, the most memorable moment in terms of emotion.
Matt Henderson:
Emotion is what sports are all about. Some of these moments didn’t make me feel good, but they hit home:
-When Laraques scored his hat trick and looked like he could explode with energy
-Craig Anderson’s shutout in first game back since his wife was diagnosed with Cancer
-Yak’s slide to Centre ice
-Ryan Smyth crying at the airport
-I promised Mess I wouldn’t do this
-Al Montoya: Someone Else!
Cam Lewis:
Bat. Flip. 
Chris the Intern:
Speaking of Colorado in Edmonton, I gotta give it to the Yak Slide. How can his celebration NOT be your favourite moment in hockey? Watching his energy and emotion take control was inspiring and it fired up our whole city.
Baggedmilk:
Does it have to be a player? Because there are some coaches that have let loose and I love it. Dennis Green’s, “The Bears are who we thought they were,” comes to mind. Jim Mora’s “playoffs” rant is a classic, and an honourable mention goes out to MacT for ripping Harvey the Hound’s tongue off.

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