Monday Mailbag – December 8th
By baggedmilk
9 years ago
Another weekend is in the books, we’re all back to work, and looking for ways to kill time. Enter the Mailbag. As always, we’ve taken your questions, passed them to our panel of writers, and waited for whatever wisdoms they may share. If you want to ask a question, email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Enjoy.
1) Mustangheart asks – During the games, I’ve noticed that the coaches are writing things down during the game. What sort of things do you think the coach writing down?
Robin Brownlee:
Eakins is updating his resume.
Lowetide:
Probably things like “He can’t possibly be that bad” and “Remind Howson he recommneded Nikitin to the group”. Seriously, I imagine it’s specific positioning issues. We saw Yak the other night skate RIGHT PAST THE GUY WITH THE PUCK in order to get to his defensive location. That kind of thing probably inspires a note.
Jason Gregor:
Points to discuss at intermission, and often drawing up plays.
Jeanshorts:
Which players are getting presents and which players are getting coal. As of right now he has 9000lbs of coal on order.
Matt Henderson:
Actually, if you open up Dallas Eakins’ notebook it is completely filled with the phrase “YOU CANNOT BREAK ME” just repeated over and over again with no spaces. Top to bottom that’s that whole thing.
Jason Strudwick:
Grocery list…making a new play list to work out to.
Baggedmilk:
I assume he’s drawing comical sketches of stick people making love to each other because he knows intimacy makes Craig Ramsay uncomfortable. I could be wrong though…
2) Darryl Randolph asks – If the Oilers aren’t going to fire the coach, what can they do to bring hope back to the fan base?
Robin Brownlee:
Real change has to start at the top. That means POHO Kevin Lowe has to go first before anything meaningful in the long-term can follow. Fans would see that as a legitimate reason to believe a change is under way.
Lowetide:
I think they have to muddle through and if the fan interest falls off, then that’s a result the Oilers will have to live with. I’ve been an NHL fan for a long time, and have seen teams make stunningly bad trades when they’re in dire situations in a regular season. Keep your powder dry, endure the slings and arrows and make changes in summer.
Jason Gregor:
Sadly, not much at this point other than show they are willing to compete every night. I don’t see one move changing much. There needs to be a complete overhaul.
Jeanshorts:
At this point I don’t think anything outside of making the playoffs will give this fan base any kind of hope. Now, granted, we’re probably all gonna come back next season with the same unbridled enthusiasm and optimism that always seems to be our downfall every year, but as we saw this season as soon as the Oilers go on even the smallest losing skid we will all start losing our damn minds and screaming for everyone to be fired again. I CAN’T WAIT!
Matt Henderson:
When people lose faith in leadership one of the reasons might be that they no longer understand the plan. This management group has to re-affirm that there is a plan, there is some direction. After that MacT needs to make a trade that actually addresses a weakness without creating a new one. I think hope in the season is dead, but hope for the future can still exist if we see the right decisions being made.
Jason Strudwick:
Compete consistently
Baggedmilk:
Unfortunately, we’re at the stage of another season where the only thing to be hopeful about is the draft. If the Oilers actually do continue to drop turds on themselves, they will have a legitimate shot at a generational player. That’s the only light at the end of this tunnel, for me.
3) Sevenseven asks – Why do stats people hate +/-? Why wouldn’t goals for and goals against be added into the stats. Isnt goal differential the way teams win?
Robin Brownlee:
You can have nothing to do with a play and get a plus or a minus by simply being on the ice. It’s a flawed stat and always has been.
Lowetide:
Plus/minus tells you who was on the ice at the time of a goal against, and that has value. However, as a predictive tool, or a guide for who performed well across the entire league, it’s wildly inaccurate. The plus minus stat came out maybe 1975 (the Hockey News made a big deal of its addition to the final stats issue) and at the time it was best info available. The current stats we look at have far more value.
Jason Gregor:
Outscoring the team on that given night is how you win games. You could win one game 8-0 and then lose five straight by one goal and still have a +3 in goal differential. Like any stat you can twist it to show how it helps your argument or counters others. I’m not sure why “stats” people hate it, maybe because it was part of old stats and not the new ones…
Jeanshorts:
They hate it because it’s a super flawed stat. If I have my man covered, and the puck comes nowhere near him, and the goalie lets in a soft wrist shot from the top of the circle on the other side of the zone, I get a minus. I did nothing to cause that goal and there was nothing I could do to stop it either, yet I still get the minus.
Or the classic example of a guy making a bad line change, and the player who replaced him gets the minus even though he’s 3 feet from the bench and had nothing to do with the play.
Goal differential is a fine tool to use when evaluating a team as a whole, but it’s very poor in terms of evaluating individual player performance.
Matt Henderson:
Stats people hate +/- because it records a very infrequent occurrence in the game that is largely controlled by how the goalie is playing, not necessarily what the skater is doing. Goals are rare. Over long periods of time +/- will tell you something, but I mean years and years and what exactly it tells you is questionable. Corsi and Fenwick are also essentially +/- but for shot attempts (something the skaters have more control over) and there are roughly 100 of them every game vs 5-6 goals a game. So over the course of a week in the NHL you’ll end up with more points of data than a year of +/-. That’s why stats people hate them.
Jason Strudwick:
I do like goal differential. Really shows which teams can both defend and score.
Baggedmilk:
The reason +/- sucks is that you have it counted against you regardless of where you were on the ice when a goal was scored. For instance, when Justin Schultz decided the best time for a line change was on a Tyler Sequin breakaway, the d-man that jumped on the ice to replace him got a minus thrown in his stats. At the end of the day, the only stat that really matters is the score – plain and simple.
4) Douglas Ricard asks – Would it really make a difference if Oilers fans stopped going to Rexall for games? Aren’t most of the tickets for this year already paid for?
Robin Brownlee:
I think so. Empty seats send a message even if the money is already in the bank. The team also loses revenue from parking, concessions and souvenirs etc. People not renewing season ticket packages for next season would have a huge impact.
Lowetide:
Sure, but the Oilers are absolutely playing a dangerous game. The hold this franchise has on the community is very, very deep—close to religious, in truth. Having said that, there are cracks forming and taking someone for granted never ends well. There’s a price.
Jason Gregor:
It would hurt the bottom line as far as making money on booze, food and merchandise. It is easy for people who haven’t paid for season tickets to say boycott the games. They aren’t giving up anything. I can understand why season ticket holders still go to games, but I know many who aren’t going to all of them anymore. Apathy and frustration are setting in, which is expected. I do think not buying day-of-game tickets can make a difference as smaller crowds combined with sagging $ will impact bottom line of Katz.
Jeanshorts:
I’ve always maintained it will not make a difference if the fans stop showing up. Mostly because this idea (and a lot of similar ideas) are predicated on the notion that Lowe, MacT, et al are completely unaware that the on ice product is terrible and that the fans aren’t happy. Like one day if the building is half empty a lightbulb is going to go on and they’re going to be all “HOLY CRAP I JUST REALIZED HOW HORRIBLE OUR TEAM IS WE SHOULD DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS I GUESS!”
I saw someone today try to use Chicago and Pittsburgh as an example of the fans not showing up, therefore the team was forced to get better, and then the fans started showing up again. As much wiser men than I have said, correlation does not imply causation. I’m pretty confident in the fact that Pittsburgh drafting Crosby (along with Malkin and Fleury and Staal etc etc etc) definitely had a very big impact on their attendance numbers. But it’s not like the Pittsburg brass sat there and was like “Oh geeze, the fans aren’t showing up, maybe we should draft a once in a lifetime talent to make this team better!”
And with Chicago their fan support turn around has more to do with their movie villain owner finally dying, and their home games being broadcast on local TV after decades of blackouts than anything else. And with both those teams, against all odds, they had guys drafted outside of the first round actually pan out to be legit NHL players, something the Oilers can’t seem to figure out.
TL;DR the team is going to be crappy for the rest of the year regardless of how many people are in the building.
Matt Henderson:
If the tickets are paid for then they wouldn’t lose much money there, but all the sales they make selling Rexall Beers and overpriced HotDogs are lost. It already happened in one game this year where there were roughly 4000 empty seats. They blamed the weather. Do it for several games in a row and you will see the Oilers make real change. Any indication that Season ticket holders will not renew will be met with fear and panic.
Jason Strudwick:
I will pass on this one…never happen.
Baggedmilk:
Most of the tickets for this season are already paid for, so it’s not like Katz will be taking a kick to the jeans if people don’t show up. Yes, he’ll lose out on merch/food/beer but it won’t make a massive difference like some people seem to think. I would rather that people donate their tickets to kids that may not have a chance to go to a game otherwise. Kids don’t care if the Oilers are terrible, they just want to be at the game, and this season is the perfect season to make that happen since the tickets are already paid for.
5) Alexander Murphy asks – I know you guys are paid to cover the Oilers, but what would you rather be doing on game nights?
Robin Brownlee:
Exactly what I’m doing now — watching the games at home. I had to make Rexall Place my second home for many years when I was a beat man at The Journal and The Sun, covering practice, morning skates and games. Not now. Watching from home allows me to channel surf and watch something that’s actually enjoyable during the intermissions.
Lowetide:
I’m a hockey fan. I’d be watching the Oilers game just like I have pretty much every night they’ve been on television. And if they weren’t on television, I’d listen to the radio. The NHL is such a wonderful league to watch despite the owners, I am blue when the final whistle blows and can’t wait for puck drop in fall.
Jason Gregor:
Take Strudwick clothes shopping, although that would likely be as frustrating as watching the Oilers. Struds would constantly revert back to buying sweaters, just like the Oilers revert to playing on the perimeter.
Jeanshorts:
Well after the Coyotes scored their 5th goal in Monday night’s debacle I turned the game off and watched the original Jurassic Park! And let me tell you it was way better than any Oiler game I’ve sat through this season. But at this point just sitting in the dark and staring into the abyss would be much more enjoyable than watching these dumpster fires.
Matt Henderson:
My other entertainment love is Video Games. If I didn’t have this crippling Oilers addiction and it was at all possible, my free time would be spent on my PS4 or PC. Destiny, Dragon Age: Inquisition, GTA V (have to wait for Xmas to get that one), any of those.
Jason Strudwick:
Watch a movie.
Baggedmilk:
Anything at all? Does that work? I know I have some painting to do in my house that I’ve been putting off, and it’s starting to look really good right about now. During the Arizona game, I actually started making little sketches throughout the game and that kept me more entertained than anything that happened in that hockey game. Last night’s game was fun though.
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