Monday Mailbag – Draisaitl’s Next Contract

It’s Monday and that means we’re back with another edition of the Mailbag. This week, we talk about Draisaitl’s next contract, when the Oilers turned the corner, and why the Oilers can’t close out games against weaker opponents. As always, this feature depends on you guys so I need your questions for next week. If you have a question for the mailbag you can always fire off an email to baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Now let’s all gather around to kill some company time and learn something. 

It was early on. When they went 7-1 to start the season it was hard to get away from the idea that they were going to challenge for a playoff spot just because of all the points in the bank. Let me demonstrate. If we take this year’s team and replace their record from Game 9 to Game 47 with the work of last year’s team over the same span, the Oilers would currently have 51 points – six less than they have as I write this on Thursday but still good enough for a playoff spot. More than half of the gap in the standings between this year’s team and last year’s team is attributable to those first eight games. I’ve been talking about them as a playoff team since game eight and haven’t seen anything to convince me otherwise.

Opening night. They beat Calgary. It felt different from opening nights of the past. I did not pick the Oilers to make the playoffs, but I felt this team was different from opening night. The specific play came after Calgary tied it up. The camera panned to Connor McDavid and he looked upset. Good, I said, I am tired of losing too, Connor McDavid.

I guess I started to believe that the playoffs were a strong possibility when the Oilers were still there in December. Now, at this point, it seems like it would take a disaster to miss. I could see a difference in the team as early as October but I didn’t let myself believe it fully until after American Thanksgiving. 

I really started thinking and writing about it in December. It didn’t come down to one or two games but as a result of the team checking off different boxes that, to me, indicate a team with a chance — bouncing back from bad games, beating teams they’d had trouble with in the past, the ability to win on the road etc.

I picked them as a playoff team at the start. Much of that was due to McDavid, but also having essentially three new top-four D-men in Russell, Larsson and a healthy Klefbom. But I didn’t expect them to be top-ten in the NHL. I thought they’d be a wildcard team. They have played even better than I thought. They have been much more consistent than I expected and moving forward I think their focus is now trying to finish first or second in the division and get home ice advantage in the first round.

Well, I felt the special feeling in the offseason right before training camp. When we won our first BOA It pretty much confirmed it for me. You just get that feeling ya know? (Even though we played under .500 for a while before Christmas). 

I think it was when we got into December and the Oilers were still in the mix. Two years ago they were out by Halloween and the fact that they were playing meaningful games in December was huge. Now that we’re in January my Oilers feels are completely rattled by this new world of competitiveness.

There have certainly been surprises, for both good and bad – Matt Benning and Patrick Maroon on one side, Benoit Pouliot and Milan Lucic on the other – but nobody I can point to and say ‘Wow, this guy is not remotely the player I was expecting to see!’

How long do you have? Matt Hendricks, so far Milan Lucic, and if you go back in history it must number in the thousands. I famously defended Marc Pouliot through 2036, and he never turned out.

Looking back I was pretty wrong about Tom Poti, who I thought was a useless slug. I wanted him to be an offensive defender who could play in his own end but the points weren’t coming for him. Looking back I think he was just too inexperienced and we didn’t know yet how to quantify his contributions. He became known for his quality defense as a Capital which always makes me chuckle.

Jeff Deslauriers. I thought his competitiveness, which was immense, would be enough to overcome the weaknesses in his fundamentals. He battled on and off the ice — he and others got buried when the Oilers dimly decided to drop their own AHL affiliate (Jeff played for six different teams in the minors in seven seasons as an Oiler) — and I liked and admired that, but it wasn’t enough to get him through.

Gilbert Brule. I thought he would be a solid player. Had a lot of ability.

NOT Devan Dubnyk because I ALWAYS believed in him. But sticking on the goalie topic I’d say Ben Scrivens. I too believed in him for the longest time but he’s had a rough few YEARS and doesn’t look like he’s bouncing back from this one.

I thought Rob Schremp was going to be better than he was. I was convinced that those inflated junior numbers meant that he was going to be a star but it just never happened. The guy had a cup of coffee with a few different teams before eventually ending up in Europe, but I was sure that the Oilers had found money in him. Whoops.

Your question piqued my interest, so I put together a quick spreadsheet of the Oilers’ results, splitting them into playoff and non-playoff teams (as of Jan. 19). Here are the results:

If anything, this is a good reminder of the value of objective stats over subjective impressions. It might seem like the Oilers do worse than they should against poor clubs, but that may just be because we remember losses to poorer teams more clearly because those losses defy our expectations of a win. Certainly, the numbers show that Edmonton has done a fine job of taking advantage of bad teams, and reinforce the importance of schedule effects when considering team performance.

I think that is a maturity issue. Most of these kids—still—lack experience. Also, the league is so damned even, I think we as fans think there are easy games. There are no easy games.

Your guess is as good as mine. I would wager that it’s because this is a young team that is learning how to win. Most of the players grew up on junk Oiler teams or other loser clubs. Winning on a regular basis is obviously hard to do. They’ll get it because now they know what standard they need. McLellan is criticizing wins just as much as losses now. Big step.

The best teams play their own game and set the agenda no matter what the opposition. That’s a consistency that takes time, especially for a team that is on the rise as opposed to a team that has made it to the top and learned how to stay there. The Oilers aren’t there yet.

There are no easy games in the NHL. The Oilers have dominated some teams below them in the standings and struggled some other times. I believe finding consistency is a learned skill and this group’s best players are still very young so there will be nights they don’t play their best, however, I think the Oilers have become much better in the past few months of not over looking teams.

Yeah probably learned skill along with a ton of confidence. Even though we’re winning now I feel like the boys don’t have as much confidence as they could. I think it’s just human nature to play down to your competition.

I don’t know if it’s that or just that they’re still not ready to play far more often than we’d like. There are games when the Oilers have awful starts/bad starts/bad luck/bear attacks to deal with/whatever and they look sloppy. I think that’s an experience thing that they need to sort out, and I think it will come. 

There isn’t enough room to answer this in a mailbag segment – we’re talking about a full column here. What I would point out is that when his contract expires Draisaitl will be a full five years away from unrestricted free agency, so any look at contract comparables will have to take in player in the same relative bargaining position. This makes him a different kettle of fish than someone like Taylor Hall or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Really depends if they go bridge or long term. I think Barkov might be a comparable but there are too many variables to give you a good answer.

Next contract should be in the 5-6 million dollar range for long term or 4-5 on a “bridge”. He’s earned his money. It’s up to Chia and company to make everyone, Drai and McDavid included, understand how the pieces will fit. If everyone wants what they’re worth on the open market then the Oilers won’t be able to keep everyone. Plain and simple. It used to be $6M was the max. Now with Lucic, RNH, and Eberle all making that it’s tough to squeeze in more.

If Leon finishes this season playing the way he has so far I’d be looking at a max-term deal. As for the numbers, I’d think they’d begin in the mid to high fives in a deal with an AAV of $6-6.5 million.

I see him signing a six-eight year deal. He’ll get at least $6 mill and could command the same $6.3 as Nathan MacKinnon. I see him in the same boat as MacKinnon and Sean Monahan.

I feel like another 6-year, $36 million isn’t out of the question. We’re giving them to everyone else so might as well do Draisaitl too.

He’s going to get at least the Lucic deal of seven years 42$ million. I’d book it right now. The problem, then, will be that Chiarelli is going to have to clear out some space. I’m thinking guys like Eberle and Pouliot will be making their way out of town before any of the other big ticket players. I think McLellan/Chiarelli will value Nuge’s versatility more than what those other two guys provide and that will make them the odd men out. At the end of the day, what the hell do I know? 

I hate to sit on the fence, but that one’s too close to call. Right now I think something in the 95-point range is a good bet for team and player alike.

I will guess McDavid, because March is going to be madness for this young man.

Oooh. Fun question. I’m going to go with McDavid. I think he finishes with more than 100 points and Edmonton will be within three of that. Quite the race going on there. McDavid had his little funk but he looks like a superstar again. I see big things for the second half. 

Good question. I’ll go with McDavid. assuming he doesn’t miss significant time with an injury.

Good question. I will go with McDavid, ending up with two or three more points than the Oilers, with both of them being above 94 points.

Haha I like this question. I’m going to say the Oilers will finish with more. They’re going to break 100 points this season, and McDavid will hover in the high 90’s. 

Oooh fun! I’m going to go with McDavid gets more points than the Oilers because I think he’s going to get close to 100. I think the Oilers will be in the 90s but I think McDavid will edge them out. 

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