Monday Mailbag – Draisaitl’s Next Contract

My friends, it’s mailbag time again and that means your ol’ pal Baggedmilk is here to give you a chance at some free learnin’ from your friendly writing panel. As always, I’ve taken your questions and sent them out to our geniuses writers to get the answers and insight that you’ve been yearning for. I’ve said it a million times by now, but this feature is entirely dependent on you guys and I need questions for next week. If you have something you’d like to ask you can email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk.com. 

Draisaitl is bigger, stronger, faster and more skilled than Eberle or RNH. He also, in my opinion, is more driven. We’ve seen big improvements in the areas of his games that needed work. He needed to get stronger to carry his big frame and he did. He’s also more versatile, he can play wing or centre. I really don’t see any similarity between the two. And for the record Eberle scored fairly consistently over the first three years of his contract with 28, 24 and 25 goals (in only 69 games). It’s not like he didn’t produce, and I expect Draisailt will produce more points so paying him a $6 mill plus contract isn’t an issue.

It also is how the league works and his agent will use comparables like MacKinnon, Gaudreau, Monahan, Barkov etc.

Yes, there’s that concern. There’s also the concern that if he keep developing, he’ll get more expensive the next time around. I do think the headlong rush to anoint Leon Draisaitl as the NHL’s next great player is a little premature and that there’s some risk that when he finds his level it’s not as a point-per-game player.

There is a concern, of course, but the Oilers have to make a decision based on buying RFA seasons only or RFA seasons with a couple of UFA seasons tacked on. It’s a bet, and a good one, but for sure it could hurt down the line. I’d go $7 times eight, so call me crazy!

I think the Oilers put themselves in a bad position with Draisaitl right out of the gate when they burned his first year because they cleared a spot for him. That started the clock on his ELC. Now he’s put up a top 10 scoring season as it comes to an end. I don’t know if Draisaitl will get cheaper. Maybe it’s a Subban situation and the bridge takes you to a 9M deal. Maybe he struggles and he’s a bit cheaper. I lean towards locking him and McDavid up for as long as possible.

No concerns at all. I didn’t see the need to sign Hall, RNH and Eberle to their contracts when it was done — almost like a package deal — because that team was a long way from contending when they were signed. McDavid and Draisaitl are the key cogs on a team that is ready to contend for the Stanley Cup. They get paid.

You make a good point, but if I’m Draisaitl there’s no way I’m taking a bridge deal. I think the Oilers need to focus on term rather than price for Draisaitl as locking him up long-term is key. Hopefully Draisaitl and McDavid understand that if they want to win a ton of Stanley Cups with the Oilers, then they might have to take a little pay cut on their extension.

I think it’s comparing apples to oranges. Draisaitl will get paid, and he’s earned it, but the situation is completely different from the other young guys that got the $6 million deals. They were expected to carry the team whereas Leon is expected to be a major cog. Another difference is that the team in general is much better and that puts him in a better spot to succeed. My guess on the contract is that he’ll land somewhere in the Tarasenko ballpark ($7.5 million/per).

Not really. He just turned 19. Players develop at different paces. He has a massive frame at 220 pounds at it will take time to add the strength necessary to move his body. He doesn’t have to develop right away, even though he is a #4 overall pick. As long as he keeps improving is what matters, not that he reaches a high level right away.

No, not really. What’s happening at the world championships is a continuation of what overall was a disappointing season, one in which Oilers coach Todd McLellan clearly lacked confidence in the player, and in which Puljujarvi posted unspectacular totals in the AHL. It is the season as a whole that is somewhat concerning, not this coda.

Not really, because he has been good when he plays. Little doubt this has been a tough season for Puljujarvi and a fresh start next season is probably the best solution. The only concern I have with JP  is how much he will score.

I’m only concerned that it’s a waste of his time. The Europeans seem to hate playing youth and they’ll keep kids on the bench to get veterans ice time even when it obviously hurts them. Not saying Finland was hurt by sitting Puljujarvi, just that they won’t think twice about doing it. JP will be just fine.

No. One World Championship is a snapshot, not an indication of what’s to come over the long term. One tournament should not define a player for better or worse. He’s a kid.

The fact that I don’t know the full story draws me to not really care too much. He could be injured, he could just want a break. It’s hard to believe PoolParty would straight up get benched. Hopefully we find out more after the tournament.

I think he’s a 19-year old kid that still has a long ways to go in his development, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Poolparty is going to be a beauty, but the Oilers need to give him some time to marinate before expecting him to be a major contributor.

Experience is part of it, but as Mark Letestu said so eloquently this season, “Once those guys decide it is an area of their game they need to improve, then it will improve.” McDavid and Draisaitl are young and they just need more experience. The fact RNH has not been able to improve (his career FO% is 43.2 and he was 43.8 this season), illustrates he has not put in the work necessary to improve that facet of his game. He has worked very hard to get stronger and faster, and maybe now that he has filled out he will spend more time honing his faceoff skills. He needs to practice them more.

It isn’t a size thing, something the data and Adam Oates both agree on. Experience definitely matters, and Edmonton has a lot of youth down the middle. Time will help.

Young centres. They don’t have man strength. Even Nuge, who is 24, doesn’t have the man strength of someone like Ryan Kesler. He’ll get there and he needs to work on it, but will get better.

Shocking absolutely nobody, I think faceoffs are largely overrated. The problem with the Oilers was that they weren’t even close against the Ducks some nights and that allowed them to do some really cool tactical things that were very unconventional. You’ll be hard pressed to find a connection between winning and faceoffs on the whole, though. The Oilers could stand to get better for sure, but I’d be more worried about other things.

Not sure you can be certain the season would have unfolded a lot differently had the Oilers been 50 per cent in the circles. When and where plays into it. That said, there are no negatives to winning more face-offs. Experience matters, as does having a knack to cheat effectively and find every edge there is.

McDavid is 20 years old and is not expected to be a good face off guy yet. Draisaitl is ALSO only 21 and finished with a 49% F/O percentage. And Nuge’s faceoff skills are his biggest downfall. We just have a young, inexperienced core to blame for our faceoff woes and time will fix that for sure. Our bottom six centres (Letestu, Hendricks, Desharnais, even Lander) all finished with >50%, so I’m not too concerned there.

They really do suck, huh? It’s actually kind of amazing that they don’t win more faceoffs by accident. That said, I think it’s because they don’t practice enough. The Oilers have spent two years drilling systems into these guys and now it’s time to work on the individual skills. Bring in a skills coach. Hire a witch doctor. Do whatever it takes.

Nothing really surprised me. He was positive but reserved. I think the most important aspect is Chiarelli believes there is still a lot of improvement needed from his team. He was cautious about their success, because much of it came on the backs of very young players, and some veterans who had career years. The Oilers are good and will be a playoff team for quite a while, however, he knows there are still big steps to take. They won one playoff round, and to win two or three is a much harder step to take than the one they took this year. It is easier to improve from being a bad team to a good team, than it is to going from a good team to a great team.

On the big picture stuff, not really. To the degree that anything surprised me, it was Chiarelli talking about incremental growth and shrugging off the need to make a big push in the last year of Connor McDavid’s entry-level deal. But even that didn’t shock me, because I have no idea whether it’s something Chiarelli really believes and will act on or if he’s just playing his cards close to the vest. The news item that Andrej Sekera will be gone 6-9 months caught me by surprise, though, and as concrete news is probably the biggest takeaway.

I thought he slow played the idea of trading a $6M forward, something I think he will do. Other than that, nothing terribly surprising. It’s also worth mentioning that the general manager should not give away his plans for the summer during the exit interview.

Biggest Surprise: Sekera’s leg almost fell off.

Take Away: Oh god, Sekera’s leg almost fell off.

 No surprises for me because no GM, Chiarelli included, is going to tell you what they really intend on doing anyway.

I was surprised he didn’t announce any injuries that the players suffered throughout the playoffs. Not sure if I was hoping there would be a couple so I would feel better about losing, or if I was relieved to hear none. Still surprised there was no chat at all about it (besides Sekera).

Peter Chiarelli doesn’t tell you much of anything and that’s a huge difference compared to his predecessor. MacT would basically lay his cards on the table for you whereas Sneaky Pete keeps things much closer to the vest. Case and point: Who saw that Taylor Hall trade coming? Chia is like a magician that has you thinking one thing while something completely different is happening behind the scenes.

If you are asking who I think fans like the least, that is difficult since everyone views players differently, but Brad Marchand is likely near the top. If you are asking who I like the least…I love offence, so even if a star is cheap and they score consistently it is hard for me to dislike them. If I had to pick one then I’ll pick Lundqvist. Big goalie with an oversized chest protector. He’s always had oversized gear in my eyes.

No comment.

I don’t really have a least likeable player, but Jack Eichel’s comments after the season really struck me the wrong way. A lot of finger pointing, hard to call that behaviour leadership imo.

Ryan Kesler. On the list of likability it goes like:

1. Puppies running in slow motion

2. Cookies still warm from the oven

…

759. Stubbing your toe and bending a nail back a little.

760. Needing a towel and not finding one.

…

10481. An unexpected bowel movement.

10482. Ryan Kesler

While he’s slipped from “star” status the last few seasons, Corey Perry is a cheap player because he crosses the line way too often for my liking. I don’t respect how he plays.

I would always say Brad Marchand, cause he’s a prick and I hate the Bruins. But NOW, after we’ve got some playoff hate going, I would happily agree that it’s Ryan Kesler. He’s probably a guy that  you’d love to have on your team but hate to play against. So until he plays for the Oilers, I will hate him forever.

He’s not a star but Ryan Kesler always deserves a slap in the mouth. Just take another look at that horrible Super-K tattoo in the picture above. What else do you need to know?

If we’re going ACTUAL star player than I’ll go with Connor McDavid. Not because I think the players hate him perse, but they do hate playing against him.