Monday Mailbag – How About the Canadian Teams?

Here we are. Draft week. It’s finally that time of the year where the Oilers are relevant, and citizens of the Nation can feel excited about the future. That means we need to find ways to kill time until Friday rolls around. As always, the Mailbag is here to get you started with a few minutes of wasted company time. I need questions for next week so please send in anything you can think of through email or on Twitter. For now, it’s time to learn something. 

I think this is the time for misinfortmation. Believe nothing! Trading Barrie without getting a defenseman back—or possibly a three-way deal bring back a blue—did not make much sense to me in the first place. Colorado has terrible defense.

I think they’re both off the market in terms of Hamonic not actively looking to leave Long Island anymore, and someone having punched some sense into Joe Sakic so that he WOULDN’T trade their number one defenceman by a mile. However, as with any player or trade, you have to think that Sakic and Snow would still listen to offers. I doubt either guy ends up in Edmonton anymore, but stranger things have happened.

In just the last half-decade I’ve heard a lot of general managers say that they weren’t going to trade Player X. In most of those instances, I’ve heard theories that X wasn’t really off the market, but that the general manager was negotiating through the media to drive the price up. I can’t think of a case where X was then traded. That makes sense, when you think about it; it’s hard for a general manager to create a bidding war when he’s publicly discouraging potential participants. It makes equal sense that these theories would be floated, as the hockey world loves trade rumours and in many cases fans are already invested in the possibility of their team landing whoever X happens to be.

The short answer is “yes, I believe it is probable that both Tyson Barrie and Travis Hamonic are in fact off the trade market.”

No way to know what Snow and Sakic are thinking, but it’s not uncommon for a GM to say one thing and do another. If Hamonic’s personal circumstances have changed, then Snow has no need to trade a terrific D-man with a great contract. In Barrie’s case, if Sakic trades him, what does he have left for blueline depth? In these specific cases, I tend to believe Snow and Sakic.

I don’t see any reason Snow would want to trade Hamonic. If Hamonic changed his mind about a trade request there is no reason to trade him. It is hard to know for certain if Hamonic wants to stay. As for Barrie, I don’t see it being about upping his value. Sakic realizes the need to have a dominant puck-moving D-man and is making a wise decision by wanting to keep him.

If I were the GM of either the Islanders or the Avs then I wouldn’t trade away Barrie or Hamonic either. For that reason, when reports came out that neither player was going to be traded I believed them. It’s still possible that this is just posturing for better leverage, but it just makes sense for both clubs to make it work as is with those guys. I say it’s at least 75% that the reports are accurate and those guys are off the market.

I hope they’re just posturing. The Oilers need defense so badly that it looks like they’re going to have to trade something stupid to get it. Now that Sami Vatanen is off the market, it makes Chiarelli’s job even tougher going forward.

It’s a fine name. I look forward to the logo!

I’m not a huge fan of the name. Something about having four words in the name is off-putting to me. I don’t mind the Knights as a name, so maybe if they just shorten it to that it won’t seem as strange.

I’m also not a huge fan of this expansion in general; uneven amount of teams, the way the expansion draft could punish some teams for no real reason (PARITY!) and I can fully see Las Vegas doing fine economically, but in my gut it’s going to be another desert team the league has to end up buying and the rest of the teams will have to prop up.

I always come at expansion with a viewpoint of inevitability: I don’t like seeing the talent pool diluted, but the forces driving that dilution are pretty much unstoppable (I feel similarly about ads on jerseys). That means the trick is to do it right. Las Vegas seems like a reasonable bet as a market, so there aren’t any complaints on that score from me. As for the team name, my only real complaint is that it’s going to get shortened to LVBK, which means all my spreadsheets with three-letter team abbreviations will be thrown into chaos. Maybe I’ll get lucky and they’ll go with “Nevada Black Knights.”

I have my doubts there’s a strong enough base of hardcore hockey fans there, but time will tell. There’s just about two million people in the metro area, so it’s a big market. The name? Don’t really care.

I have no issue with Las Vegas as an expansion team. The NHL wants 16 teams in the west. Black Knights is too long and while the owner wants that name, I’d lean in a different direction. Knights is fine.

Awesome name, but only because I will be using Monty Python gifs from now until the end of time when that team does something stupid on or off the ice. It’s just a flesh wound!

Personally, I would have gone with the Las Vegas Circus Circus but that’s just me. As for whether the GMs will be worried, I think it will be funny to see what happens with opposing teams roll through on a road trip. I don’t think it’s the home team’s GM that will be worried, but the guys rolling through town at the end of a road trip. 

I think we will see just one traded—Nail.

I don’t think any of them will go this summer, but if anyone’s going to be moved this season I think Yak would be the most likely. Now that it looks like most of the big-fish defensemen that Oiler fans coveted are off the market, I doubt my nightmare of losing Hall or Nuge comes true (thankfully). As much as I love Yak there probably isn’t really a market for him right now, but I can see him upping his value for the trade deadline.

I expect the Oilers will trade one first overall pick, Nail Yakupov. It’s possible they also move a second, and if they do that player will likely be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

One for sure — Yakupov is a goner. Won’t be surprised to see a second unless Chiarelli can put together a package that doesn’t include Hall, Eberle, RNH or Draisaitl for a top-pairing D-man. That might be tough.

Yakupov will be first. He’s asked for a trade and I see him being moved on draft weekend. McDavid isn’t going anywhere, and I doubt you get the return you want for Hall, so I wouldn’t move him. I’d say 50-50 RNH gets moved.

The answer better be just one. Edmonton’s centre depth is not so good that they can afford to replace RNH with a winger like Draisaitl. Taylor Hall better only be traded for a true 1D and I’ve been conditioned to believe that won’t happen. And McDavid is staying put. That leaves just Yak, who requested a trade, but if we’re being honest then I’d rather see him play in the top six than traded for scrap bits of yarn.

I think Yak will be moved at/before the draft, and I think that another one will probably go too. With so many RHD being checked off the list, Chiarelli may have to dip into the first overall pool just to get any deal done. Right handed defensemen have turned into gold, apparently. I predict that they’ll have to move Nuge+ to get whoever they’re after and then one of the other centres will get hurt and everyone will question our depth at C again.

I think NHL teams will be LESS confident about Connor McDavid!

Watching him last season, I don’t think there were any confidence issues whatsoever (a little tentative in his first week, sure), so I honestly don’t think anything will change at all in that regard. He’s been getting the Sidney Crosby Treatment® since he was like 10 years old, I don’t think he even feels that kind of pressure anymore. And realistically there will probably be MORE focus on him; one year older, everyone looking at him to basically bring the Oilers back to respectability by himself, Connor himself looking to avoid the sophomore slump. All eyes are going to be on Connor until he retires.

I didn’t notice any particular lack of confidence this past season.

I don’t think all the focus has been on Matthews. I also don’t think exposure — increased or decreased — has anything to do with McDavid’s confidence. The experience he gained last season and understanding that he can dominate at this level will have much more to do with how he performs.

Not at all. McDavid had a great season, and people have been talking about him since he was 15. And there will be a lot of talk about McDavid at the World Cup. He is used to it. It has no impact on him and how he plays.

Was confidence a concern for McDavid? He stepped onto the ice and after three games where he was merely “very good”, he started to play like one of the most dominant centers in the NHL. I doubt media pressure is actually a thing that bothers him. He’s a stud. 

Connor is already one of the best players in the NHL, let alone a rookie. He can handle the pressure. He has handled the pressure. He will continue to handle the pressure. Whatchoo got, Matthews? Toronto may crush that kid. 

Rebound: Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal

Spin: Vancouver. Actually change that to this:

Rotate: Vancouver!

Montreal will rebound. If Calgary gets a legit goalie they’ll probably be more competitive this year than we’d all like, and I think Edmonton will be on the playoff bubble come April.

Vancouver will AT BEST still spin their wheels, Toronto may get a little better but I doubt they make it out of the bottom 10. And Gord love the Jets, but they couldn’t be in a worse division, so they’re probably gonna miss the playoffs for at least one more year, purely due to playing in the central.

Ottawa is the real wild card for me. Depending on the year they’ll either make a decently deep run only to have their heartbroken, or they’ll crash and burn immediately and be out of playoff contention by January.

Carey Price should be healthy next year, and that’s going to make a big difference in Montreal; the Habs should be better pretty much by default. Toronto and Vancouver are in interesting positions. I don’t think the Leafs are going to spin their tires but I do think it’s fair to say that it would be a surprise if they took a biog leap forward this year (barring a more activist approach this summer than I’m really expecting) while their key young players are still breaking into the league. The Canucks meanwhile are in a pretty deep hole despite solid goaltending last year; it’s going to be tough to make a big enough dent in that  to climb back into the playoffs.

Too early to say with the draft and the bulk of off-season trades and acquisitions still to be completed. I think Montreal and Calgary have the best chances to get back in because, as of today, they have more to work with than the others teams that missed.

Montreal is easiest guess due to Carey Price. If he’s healthy they are a way better team. I don’t see the Leafs improving as much as people claim they will. The other five depends on who they add to their rosters this summer.

Edmonton: No hope of playoffs until two high end D are added

Ottawa: Lulz. Nope. 

Montreal: Maybe after they fire their coach in November. 

Winnipeg: I like their chances if they tweak their defense a bit and the kids are alright.

Vancouver: Benning

Toronto: Too many kids. I like 2017 for them. 

Calgary: Hartley held them back. They have a solid D and some good forwards.

Toronto will suck. So will the Canucks. I always, ALWAYS leave the door open for the Oilers to be terrible so there’s that. I think Montreal will be fine as long as Carey Price stays healthy. I think Ottawa could be good if they can find some more scoring to go along with Karlsson from the back end. I hope Calgary gets hit by a meteor. 

 

Our friends at AMA Travel have put together an exclusive golf getaway for two lucky citizens of the Nation. This is a FREE draw to enter so there’s really no excuse not to try chances for a free golf vacation. 

The fine folks at AMA will pick a grand prize winner on July 17th, and have even sweetened the pot with weekly giveaways which increase your odds of winning something for doing basically nothing. To get further information and to enter this FREE draw just submit your info here.