Monday Mailbag – How likely is it that Sam Gagner turns his PTO into a contract?

Happy Monday, dearest Nation Citizens, and welcome to a fresh edition of the Mailbag to help get your week started and keep you up to date on all things Edmonton Oilers. This week, we’re looking at Sam Gagner’s PTO, whether the Oilers have enough depth scoring, the power play, and much more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk and I’ll get to you as soon as we can.

All depends how he, Sutter, and Pederson look in camp. If he is willing to start in the AHL, then the odds he signs a contract increase significantly. Edmonton will only carry 12 forwards to start, but having AHL depth, who is NHL ready, will be vital. Remember, both last year Kostin and Janmark started the season in the AHL. I think there is a good chance he will sign a contract. If he had to start in the AHL, he’d be a great leader and presence for the young players in Bakersfield.

Unlikely. Only fit I see is at 4C ahead of Pederson.

The tough part is that the Oilers are likely only going to be able to carry 12 forwards to start the season so Gagner will not only need to outplay Brandon Sutter, who’s also on a PTO, but he’ll need to play so well that the Oilers feel it’s worth putting Raphael Lavoie on waivers. I think the most likely outcome is that Gagner signs a one-year deal and goes down to Bakersfield to start the season.

If he wants to make the team then he needs to beat out Raphael Lavoie. It feels unlikely the Oilers would want to send Lavoie back to Bakersfield over Sam Gagner. With that said, I think Gagner would be a solid two-way contract forward, similar to what Devin Shore did last season. The Oilers will need the depth at some point and he can be a fit.

I think Gagner will sign a contract but will start the year in the AHL just like Janmark and Kostin did last year. Once the Oilers start to accrue some cap space, I bet he’ll be the first call up. That’s my bet anyway. We’ll see how things go in training camp.

Depth scoring wasn’t a major issue last year and considering Kane and Yamamoto combined for 26 goals (Kane only played 41 games, Yamo 58), I think Kane and Brown will score more than 26 combined this season. Foegele is good for 11-12 a year. McLeod is getting better. If Holloway plays 12 min/game he will score 10. I’d be willing to wager a lot that Evan Bouchard scores more than eight goals, so I don’t see depth scoring being a big issue.

Better defensive play and consistent goaltending is another option, no? That aside, I see enough depth here even with marginal drops on the top end.

I think so. If Ryan McLeod can stay healthy that will be a big help and I think pieces like Warren Foegele and Dylan Holloway should provide a lot more offense than they did last season.

It feels unlike the Hyman, Kane, and Nugent-Hopkins all go quiet at the same time again, so I fully believe the depth is good enough. Additionally, adding Connor Brown to the group only makes them better. Ken Holland could get busy at the deadline too and add another piece.

I actually think the Oilers are going to score more this year. Even though I don’t think Nuge will get to 100 points again, I do think there are a handful of guys that will have better seasons than they did last year. I think Kane, McLeod, Brown, Foegele, and Holloway will all produce more than they did in 2022-23.

Marc, the Oilers PP% from 2020-2023 has been 29.5%, 27.6%, 26% and 32.4%. Teams haven’t been able to figure it out. They can game plan all they like, but Edmonton has one extra player on the ice, and they are the best in the NHL at using that advantage. I don’t see why McDavid and Draisaitl, who are the orchestrators of the PP, will suddenly be shut down. They might not be 32.4% again, but if they are around their four-year average of 29.1%, they will still be dominant, and I expect they will.

The Oilers have been very effective on the power play for four years now, and for different reasons. If there was an adjustment to change that, it would have been used by now.

To be fair, I think other teams have been trying their hardest to stop the Oilers powerplay for a long time and nothing has worked. What makes them so dangerous is that they have multiple ways to score. It’s not like there’s just one play that provides 90% of their goals. The five-man unit that the Oilers put over the boards is just so naturally talented that it’s impossible to stop on a consistent basis.

I am sure the Oilers have some new plays for the power play this season. Even if they don’t, nobody has figured out how to stop Connor McDavid yet so I am sure he’ll find a way.

I highly doubt it. The Oilers’ power play has been so good for the last handful of years that I doubt that anyone will be able to figure it out this season given that the personnel will be the exact same.

Vegas ripped their heart out last year. It was the most painful loss for their core group. Those games this season will be intense, but overall I still believe it is Calgary. They have a 40+ year rivalry. It is still the top, but the Vegas games will carry a bit more fire this season which is great.

Intensity can be the product of styles of play rather than rivalry. There’s some of that with Edmonton and Vegas. Nobody likes Vegas. I’d still say Calgary, even with some of the key agitators like Matthew Tkachuk now elsewhere.

I think the Oilers and Kings have a really good rivalry as well. That one might be the most intense at the moment considering the playoff history.

I would say the LA Kings. Back-to-back seasons of playing in the postseason against each other will build up some hatred.

Gotta be the Kings or Golden Knights. That first round against the Kings was spicy and the Golden Knights basically broke all of our hearts in round two, so it has to be them.

I like the first two. I wouldn’t incorporate the third one, but I don’t hate it either. Often the NHL tries things in the AHL first, so that would be the most realistic place to start. I suspect they will watch how it works in IIHF and then the player’s union would also have to be on board. Teams with bad power plays or lacking in star power would likely be opposed to it today, which is narrow-minded because in five years they might have drafted a great offensive talent. Edmonton would love it, as their PP is lethal.

I like all three. Imagine the Oilers’ power play percentage with the first rule in place.

I love the second one where the penalty is still served if a goal is scored while the ref’s arm is up. It really doesn’t make a lot of sense why they take the penalty away in that scenario. Not a huge fan of a shorthanded goal erasing a penalty though. This is also a good chance for me to plug my favourite hypothetical rule change: no icing the puck when you’re shorthanded. The game would be way more exciting if teams actually had to play while shorthanded and couldn’t just shoot the puck down the ice.

I love all of them and am excited to see how they work in the IIHF. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NHL is just waiting to see how it looks before they implement some similar rules.

I like the first two rules a lot, honestly. These would be simple adjustments that would certainly increase scoring, and I’m very much into that. The third rule is also kinda fun, especially given that the Oilers led the league in shorties last season so maybe I want all three of them.

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