Monday Mailbag – How patient will Chiarelli be with the defence?

Another week is in the books and now you need help killing company time until it’s time to go home. Luckily, the Mailbag is here to answer all of life’s important questions. Will the answers given in this week’s mailbag apply to your life? We shall see, but I’m feeling confident. If you have something you’d like to ask, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Now sit back, relax, and get paid to waste as much work time as possible. Have a good week, everybody.

I’m fine with the goaltending. Cam Talbot is healthy and has a fine track record. Goalies can go off the rails a little from time to time, but he’s a veteran and should find the range. He needs to be fantastic for Edmonton to make the playoffs.

Brossoit was good last year, with a .928sv%, (small sample size, but fact is he played well), and was fine off the bench this year. I would have liked him to make one big save, maybe the Staal breakaway, but he didn’t have much of a chance on the first three. Talbot has been back to his normal self the past two games. Goaltending isn’t a concern for me.

Not concerned. I don’t put more weight in a handful of games over what we saw all of last season.

Nope. Goaltending was so bad that there was no reason to believe it could stay that bad. Talbot has been a fantastic goalie for years.

Talbot has looked like himself the past couple games, and while Brossoit has bad against Carolina, he was strong in a limited showing last year. Seven games isn’t a big enough sample size to worry about goaltenders.

Not at all. I was sort of worried when Cam went though is rough stretch, but you KNOW he was going to snap out of it and become the Cam we all know and love. I think the first few games this year where both Talbot and Brossoit were playing poorly showed us a little bit what things could have looked like last year if Talbot didn’t play so well. Good goaltending is so important to win games, and we need them to make some saves.

Of all the worries I have about the Oilers Cam Talbot is not one of them. He’s been much more like himself over the past couple games and it’s really nice to see. I also think Brossoit will be fine but they need to get him in some games to make sure that’s the truth. They can’t hope LB is the backup that we’ve all dreamed about (is that a thing?) without testing him.

I think we’ll see it when the coach auditions a RW who can score goals on McDavid’s line. As of this writing, that’s Leon.

They need some wingers to score. I don’t separate them, I put them back together when he returns.

We’ll see it at some point, but let’s get Draisaitl healthy and up to speed first.

When either Yamamoto becomes a fulltime NHLer or Chiarelli fixes the mess he made at RW. Whichever comes first. It sure would be nice if Draisaitl could actually play 2C and be close to a point per game player.

Considering how difficult of a time the team has had finding good wingers to play with McDavid, I’m not sure you can separate them. That’s a luxury you’d like to have, but even the top line hasn’t looked as dangerous as it did last year.

I could see that happening occasionally throughout the year dependant on hot and cold streaks. The beautiful thing about that duo is how easily it can be adjusted and rearranged. When one of them is cold, put them together until they’re hot again and then separate, rinse and repeat.

First step, get Leon back. After that, I think McLellan is still going to play Leon on the wing because the depth at RW is so shallow. Eventually he’ll move to centre, but I think a big chunk of his 2017-18 season will be spent on the wing again. Stick him with Nuge for a while and let those two make some magic.

It depends on the games ahead. As I write this, Edmonton is in Chicago. As you read this, we’ll have a much better idea.

He will be patient. He needs Klefbom and Larsson to find their game, and I suspect they will. Adding a third pairing d-man won’t help a lot unless Benning continues to struggle, so I see him being patient. Benning has only played four games. Too early to say he can’t rebound.

I’d bet he’s keeping tabs on who might be available and what the ask is, although that’s pretty standard for most GMs.

Let’s be real. Do you think he’s willing to fix the problem he just anchored to the roster for the next four years? No. He is not. If he acts now, who is leaving? Who is coming back? If he “fixes” the defence it’s probably Nurse for a block of cheese.

If he didn’t view it as a major issue over the summer, I doubt he’s going to scramble to fix it now. They’re being patient until Sekera returns, and based off of how things go after that, we could see an addition or change in the New Year closer to the deadline. Seven games isn’t changing his outlook.

Good question, If we are still struggling badly — say, 15 games into the season — on the back-end, then I can definitely see Chia looking elsewhere. It’s all going to depend on who’s available though. We’re obviously missing him back there but I have a gut feeling we’re going to make it through alright.

Gord damned, I miss Sekera. Right now the defence, actually the team as a whole, is leaking chances in the d-zone and that has to change. If it doesn’t, this hole the Oilers are in is going to get deeper and deeper. I know Chiarelli said he was going to be patient with the defence, but there’s only so long he can wait before that patience runs out.

I think the analytics are strong but also indicate trouble in net and on the penalty kill. The 5×5 numbers are rock solid though and that’s a good tell.

No. Analytics can be useful, and the smart analytics guys will be first to tell you analytics don’t tell you everything. They can add good input, but anyone who says a team is good based on one statistic, or a player is bad based on one or two statistics, shouldn’t be taken too seriously.

Nothing we don’t — or shouldn’t — already know. The numbers that matter most at the bottom line are how many pucks in the other net and how many pucks in your net. I think the standings are still based on that.

Yeah. The lesson is that PDO makes everyone go crazy. The lessons you learn from the numbers is a long game. What we’ve learned is that percentages for your shooters and your goalies can fluctuate like crazy over short terms and you have to take that into account. If you think the lesson after less than 10 games where the percentages are out of whack is that the numbers are meaningless then you missed that crucial lesson.

We’ve seen dozens of teams with good shot numbers and bad percentages eventually balance out. But then we have the Hurricanes and Kings of recent memory to remind us that, in fact, isn’t always certain. The Oilers have been massively outshooting their opponents, which is good, but their special teams have really held them back.

Yes, that it’s garbage! Analytics aren’t 100% garbage, you can still take some valuable aspects out of them, but this is another show of proof how solely looking at either the numbers or eye ball test will not do you any good.

According to things like shot metrics, the Oilers are doing relatively well. They’re getting a tonne of shots (a lot them from the outside mind you) and that shows that they’re doing some nice things. The problem is that shot metrics don’t track things like “heads up asses/60” which is also sky high for the Oilers right now.

I’m not certain. It’s been an age old story, so maybe there’s something to it. Sometimes we disregard things that old people say, but as I get older it seems I’m the one saying them.

If players think it is and they play well, then sure. A change of scenery can be good at times, but it surely isn’t a guarantee of success.

Standard fare.

Yeah. I do. It’s a different environment, different routine, and different pressures. There’s no show to put on for the home crowd. I might place a lot of faith in proof, but I also believe that there’s a lot of psychological factors at play too.

Yeah, sure, I mean, if players and coaches say it enough for it to become a cliche narrative, there’s likely some kind of merit to it.

It’s so cliche and I hate it. However, I do agree that road trips are good for the team, especially in playoffs. Yes the travel is hard, and the away arenas are exhausting, however, you get some valuable team time together on the road, and aren’t distracted by things at home like family and other responsibilities.

It might be good for them to get out on the road, spend some time together, and gel as a team but aside from that it’s a saying as old as time. If they’re struggling on the road they’ll come out with the “it’ll be good to get home” lines and the narrative will be reversed.

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