Monday Mailbag – McDavid’s Next Contract

Happy ‘we’re-in-a-playoff-spot-on-a-Monday-late-January’ to all of you! I promise to work turning days like these into civic holidays so we can all sit at home in our undies, but there’s still a ways to go. Until then, let’s all kill some time together whilst learning about the Oilers we love and arguing with the strangers we hate. Allow the Mailbag to dust off a few minutes of company time and get you closer to going home. As always, I need questions for the Mailbag so email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Enough of me – let’s learn something.

I can’t answer that question because the answer is “Whatever McDavid wants.” This isn’t about comparables to me, because I can’t pick a team in the league that wouldn’t be well-advised to offer $100 million over eight years and pay the compensation for trying to sign him as an RFA. I also can’t imagine the Oilers letting him go, even at that price. How he personally balances a) personal compensation b) the ability of Edmonton to pay the rest of the team (and therefore to win) and c) how the Oilers winning things will improve his marketability in promotion deals is something I can’t begin to know.

In his shoes, I’d be looking at the second Stamkos contract or the second Crosby contract as inspiration. That means a 4-5 year deal, killing off all those RFA years, and maybe giving a UFA year as a goodwill gesture. I’d also insist on getting paid but perhaps, as Crosby did, McDavid will accept a more modest salary in the interest of allowing the Oilers to spend on other players.

I’m not sure why you think Ekblad, a D-man, is a comparable. The comparable is Sidney Crosby. McDavid likely won’t take the highest AAV, because he wants to win. He’ll make a lot of money through endorsements. If he wants to win I don’t see him going higher than around $10 mill AAV.

I think the Oilers will go eight years times a very large number. Connor McDavid has no comparable. I suspect this is going to be a massive contract. If management plays their cards right, McDavid will be a lifetime Oiler with multiple Stanleys. Go long and go deep.

McDavid will be among the top-10 highest players with a max-length deal (8 years) of 10.5 to 11.5 million. I’d consider that a hometown discount.

I think Connor McDavid can name his price and the Oilers will pay it. If HE wants $12 million plus, he’ll get it. It’s up to Chiarelli to come up with a number that he thinks he can afford and still build a cup contender around then sell it to McDavid. I think his next deal is eight years, $80 million. Less would be one hell of a sell job by Chiarelli.

If Connor McDavid asks to get paid $100 billion over 20 years THEN YOU SIGN THAT CONTRACT! I don’t care what the CBA says.

I’m guessing he’s going to get eight years at $9.7 million per year. I believe that Connor McDavid will want to win more than he’ll want to cash in. He’s going to make millions of dollars in corporate sponsorship so it will all even out in the end. Eight years, $9.7 per year. Don’t @ me.

 

No. If the personality balance is that fragile the team is bound to implode when it hits adversity anyway.

I don’t see much of a concern. Adding one player shouldn’t disrupt your entire room or the chemistry of a team. Darnell Nurse will return to the lineup in mid-March after being out 10-12 weeks. I don’t see him disrupting chemistry either. If you add a good player the room will be happy.

You always want to have plenty of depth for the playoff run, so I would guess we will see some players added. As Edmonton continues to play well, we may see more of a tweak than a substantial addition, but there are miles to go.

If it’s a significant player — top-six forward, top-pairing D-man — who plays a lot of minutes there is always the possibility that moving people around can impact what you call chemistry. I don’t see the Oilers making a move for a player who falls into that category.

Sure, there’s always the worry that things can get screwed up. The good news is that a RW will be bottom six and worst case can be swapped out no problem. It’s a bigger concern to get a quality RHD and have it backfire because that guy will be playing 20 minutes a night. I think you can guess where I stand on that issue, but chances are Russell would still be on the team and playing on his natural side. So hopefully the team can only get stronger.

This is pretty much the reason why I’d never make a good NHL GM. I think so, but I’m pretty sure Chia wouldn’t care at all. If the Oilers continue to stay hot, specifically someone like Eberle for example, I’m pretty sure it would just be raising his trade value. If Chia wanted to trade him a month ago, I don’t think that decision will change.

Maybe if they’re bringing in Kony 2012 or someone like that. I don’t think that bringing in one or two guys will affect the chemistry or bond between the other 20 dudes in the room. You ever get anyone new at work? Anyone ever leave? It happens.

The answer to that is a full column all by itself, so I’m not going to get into all the different potential rental options here. A right-shot forward with offensive ability, a third line centre, a right-shooting defenceman with offensive ability and a backup goaltender top the list of player-types.

The need another RW or a third line C. I have a series every week outlining different players. Vanek, Boyle and Eaves are three I’ve written about and I have a few more coming. The challenge right now is only Arizona and Colorado are truly out of it. However, Ken Holland already stated the Wings won’t be buyers, so they are sellers. I’d guess New Jersey and Buffalo are also leaning that way, and likely Vancouver. I think their management knows what they have.

I think Peter Chiarelli could add an inexpensive goalie with experience like Reto Berra, a veteran depth defender (power-play options are few and far between) like Mark Streit and a third-line center like Martin Hanzal. It all depends on prices, of course. Chances are these players will cost too much.

I like Michael Stone out of Arizona. He’s a right-shot guy who will be cheaper than Kevin Shattenkirk if the Oilers obtain him and actually try to re-sign him. Still with Arizona, I don’t mind Martin Hanzal as an option up front.

Vanek, Vrbata, Shattenkirk, Stone, Parenteau. Those are some of the names I think about as rentals. I was pushing for Parenteau in October when he went on waivers but I am open to any of the above. I am hella intrigued about Shattenkirk and trying to win him over to re-signing in Edmonton.

To be honest I liked Vanek… until he got injured. I would obviously love Shattenkirk but I don’t think that’ll ever happen. Gregor wrote an article last week about acquiring Boyle which I’m not totally opposed to. There aren’t a ton of options out there but I would push for right wing depth as well as defencemen.

I love Shattenkirk but that’s the kind of rental payment that kicks you in the balls later. I like Brian Boyle, the giant out of New York that’s in the last year of his deal. I liked Vanek because he would have added some scoring depth, but I know he got hurt and haven’t been paying attention to what’s happened since.

I’m writing my answer between the Anaheim and San Jose games, and I’d say it’s still too early to tell. The West is weak this year, which opens up the window of opportunity a little earlier for the Oilers. However, I’d like to see how the club performs against the Sharks, Wild, Blackhawks, Canadiens and Capitals over the next month before making an all-in decision at the deadline. Right now I think they’re a building team but not a true contender, but if the next month goes well I may be singing a different tune.

Only way you move the pick is if you acquire a forward with a few years remaining on his contract. The Oilers aren’t a legit Cup contender yet, so I’d guess Chiarelli wants to keep his pick. However, if they win one round of the playoffs, which isn’t unrealistic, then their pick would be at best #24. Those picks are still valuable, but often late first rounders aren’t much more valuable than early second rounders.

I am hopeful Edmonton stays the course and keeps that selection. There is a terrific RHD named Cale Makar who would be a perfect fit and could be available where Edmonton drafts this summer.

Could it happen? Sure. I think it’s possible but unlikely.

I don’t think it’s too early to trade the first round pick for immediate help in terms of the window being open. The issue is this stupid expansion draft. I think options will open between the expansion draft and the entry draft. The 2017 first can be best used to help acquire that RHD they need.

I could totally see it, however, the payout couldn’t be a rental player. I can also imagine Chia thinking that you can never have enough depth in the organization and wanting to keep it.

I don’t think they should trade it because I don’t think this is the year that they go all in on a Cup run. Keep the pick, stock up the shelves, and make the run next year.

Ales Hemsky scoring twice in Game 6 against the Red Wings. Detroit was a fantastic hockey team that year, and once Edmonton got past them I knew the rest were beatable. The hockey press at that point was also more prone to saying disparaging things about Europeans generally (and Hemsky always had his critics in Edmonton who didn’t care for his practice habits), so watching Hemsky score two massive goals to knock off the Red Wings was tremendous.

I hosted the evening show in 2006. Post game emotion/reaction is the best. Fans were fired up. On many nights we stayed on air until 2 am as fans kept wanting to talk hockey. It was nice discussing positive play rather than always having to dissect brutal plays and bad players.

My kids really got into the playoff run that spring and summer. They were in school and it seemed all of Edmonton and area ate, drank and slept hockey. From an Oilers POV, that Fernando goal in OT will never leave my memory. It was beautiful.

The term fondest doesn’t really come to mind because I was working the series and the whole playoff run was a bit of a hair-on-fire blur. Lots of vivid memories, though. Fernando Pisani’s whole playoff run was wonderful to witness. Chris Pronger’s quiet determination was unforgettable. I’ll never forget the looks on the faces of the players in the dressing room as the first-round upset of the Red Wings sunk in. I’ll never forget the silence in the room after the Game 7 loss in Carolina. I felt for every one of those guys. The roar of the crowd at Rexall Place still echoes in my mind. Those guys played their asses off. It was a wonderful stretch of hockey.

I was in University and working at a restaurant. When the playoffs started I made an offhand comment to my boss that if the Oilers made the finals he couldn’t schedule me on any of the game nights and he agreed. We both chuckled then moved on about our business (chicken wings). The Oilers kept advancing and I didn’t say a word about our agreement to my boss. Round after round they kept progressing. When they made the finals I went to check the schedule assuming the boss had “conveniently forgotten” our agreement. I didn’t work a single one of the game nights. Not one. Not even an early shift that ended just before game time. I had a good boss.

I’m going to go off the board and not talk about the games at all. I was in grade… seven (I think?) when it happened. My favourite memory was driving into the city frequently with my parents to either run errands or for whatever other reasons. Seeing 90% of the vehicles in Edmonton decked out in car flags was amazing to me. I couldn’t get enough of it. Let me tell you that if/as soon as we clinch this year I’m buying car flags.

I was at the game that went to triple overtime when Smytty got his teeth knocked out. I’ll never forget the place going bonkers after Horcoff scored and the silver pom poms that they handed out raining down because people were throwing them. It was either that or a first round game I went to against Detroit when the entire crowd chanted ‘Man-ny Man-ny Man-ny’ over and over at Manny Legace. There was one point where the game went to a TV timeout and the chant continued throughout the entire break. It rattled him, there was no way it wouldn’t.

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