Monday Mailbag – Nuge or Draisaitl?

My friends, it’s that time of the week where our panel of geniuses writers answer your questions in an attempt to explain a little bit about hockey and this universe we live in. For most of us, having Monday off means we can sleep in, enjoy a few AM beers, and (maybe) do something productive if the cards fall that way. I dedicate this mailbag to those of you that have to work today, and hope that these 3000 words of questionable knowledge can help you kill off even a little bit of company time. Gord speed, working citizens. We’re all pulling for you.

No. Different team, different season. I would say that it is a great credit to Joe Thornton, who refused to waive his NMC in order to leave. Well done, Joe!

No I don’t. McClellan is a very good coach. He had a good run with the Sharks but the team never got over the hump. The GM made some changes to the lineup and some of the youth has come into its own. Martin Jones has also played well for the Sharks. They are looking good to move to the final.

If the Sharks don’t win the Stanley Cup this year does it reflect well on Todd McLellan as a coach? No on both counts

McLellan’s Sharks made the playoffs six years in a row during his seven year tenure, and while they could never  seem to get over the hump, they made the conference finals in back to back years as well. Those teams also have a Presidents Trophy to their name. I think people put way too much stock in just how much impact a coach has on a team, especially in the playoffs. In two of those years the Sharks were bounced out by the eventual Stanley Cup champions; sometimes you just run into a much better team and there’s nothing coaching can do to stop that. Todd McLellan’s legacy in San Jose will be fine. Only dummies will think a Sharks cup win this year somehow reflects poorly on Todd McLellan.

No, not really. Peter DeBoer coached the Panthers to diminishing returns for three seasons, and yet the year after he left the club had a better season under Kevin Dineen than it had enjoyed at any point in DeBoer’s tenure. There’s a lot that goes into team performance, and it isn’t as simple as looking at the name behind the bench and the results.

Randy Carlyle won a Cup in Anaheim, sucked in Toronto, and hasn’t worked since. Point being that different teams respond in different ways to different messages. Not to mention, it doesn’t hurt that Thornton refused to waive a NMC and Marleau rescinded a trade request. 

It might be — the acquiring team would have more seasons under control. It all depends on who is coming back. I would want to see a lot of return for either player.

There is no way I would move Drai. With his size and skill set he looks to be exactly what is needed to compete. If we agree that he will become at least a second line centre, I like the duo of McDavid/Drai over McDavid/Nuge. This isn’t because I don’t think highly of Nuge. He is a very good player and has grown into a good leader. I like the 97/29 because it gives two different looks to teams on the top two lines.

I don’t see his value as greater. Of course I would consider moving him, and anybody except McDavid, if the return was right.  When you are a bottom-feeder, how can you not explore every possibility?

As a logical person I would like to think that RNH would have much more value at this point. Draisaitl is awesome and I still firmly believe he’ll be the next great western power forward in the mould of Getzlaf/Benn, HOWEVER he had a really great couple of months at the beginning of last season, before falling back down to earth pretty hard for the last half. There’s still a lot of room for him to grow, but at this point I think it’s still way too early to guarantee what kind of results you’re going to get with him.

With NUGE however, he’s proven himself to be a 50+ point scorer while handling the toughest defensive assignments, and despite what a lot of people in the comments will try and say, he’s done very well. He’s the Oilers’ best 200 foot player not named McDavid and his game has consistently gotten better every year. He’s about to go full Datsyuk any day now.

BUT this being the NHL I can only assume most GMs would look at it and be like “DRAISAITL BIG, YOUNG, PUT UP POINTS LAST YEAR. NUGE, SMALL, DISAPPOINTING SEASON, IS PROBABLY LIKE 38 AT THIS POINT BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE HE’S BEEN IN THE LEAGUE FOREVER”.

TL;DR Drai probably has more value right now because hockey math.

I think his value would be greater, but I don’t know about “significantly.” If it is, a Draisaitl trade is certainly something the general manager would need to consider.

This is a funny question. Draisaitl has yet to match Nuge’s rookie scoring numbers (numbers Nuge has since passed) and people are ready to declare that the Oilers should start moving centres. To answer the question, Draisaitl would have more trade value right now because he had a better year than Nuge. Last summer it was the complete opposite. On swings the pendulum. 

I always credit the player first, but all of the elements you mention probably factor in. Take a player like Brandon Davidson — the sheer number of helpers he must have had must be myriad. And yet, he did it, credit to him. 

In the later rounds teams draft on something they like in the player, good skating, big shot, hockey sense, but it isn’t all there. Towards the later rounds I would look for great skaters that are very determined.

Can be any or all of what you mentioned. Players who even make it to the NHL, let alone become significant players, after the first three rounds are exceptions.

I think it’s mostly just random luck combined with players having all sorts of different development curves. A guy like Yak absolutely lit up the OHL, but has obviously not met expectations as an NHL player. He was number one on every scouting list I can find for that year. Was every single scout way off base, or is it more likely his ceiling was being dominant against fellow teenagers? Not every player can put it all together at 18 years old. Some guys need to fully mature both mentally and physically before they start to reach their full potential, which is why a lot of guys don’t even make the NHL until they’re 22 or 23.

All of the above; there’s no one size fits all answer to that question. Good scouting (and good analytics too, though to a lesser degree at that age) can identify players in later rounds that have a chance to play. Good development helps bring out the most in those players. Luck and opportunity plays a greater part in career achievement in both hockey and other fields than most of us would care to admit. And then there are plenty of stories of players having huge growth spurts that change things significantly for them.

All of the above, probably. You look at a guy like Jamie Benn and you can’t believe that he was drafted in the fifth round. Sometimes a player shatters expectations, sometimes a safe bet flops, and sometimes scouting just doesn’t make sense. 

I think it is a good deal, for both sides. I hope he forces the Oilers to regret not making it a two-way deal with his fine play. His quotes after signing suggest a maturation and that is a very good sign. I wish him the best.

I love the term. Perfect amount of time for him to show that he is a NHL player. I thought he was pretty good last year. I still believe consistency is the issue. He needs to be the exact same player every night. I can live with some craziness every now and then that leads to bad penalties if most nights he brings it to the other team.

The term and the money make sense. He needs to stay sober and stay healthy. I’m hoping he does both because there’s an effective player here.

I think it’s pretty perfect from all sides. At $1.5 for one year, if Kassian can chip in 10 goals and 25-30 points, while mucking it up physically and giving the opposition crazy eyes all game, there’s some real value in that player and contract. I’ve maintained since his entry in the league that his offensive skills have been way overhyped, but he’s a solid possession player, who doesn’t look entirely out of place during the odd shift or two with the Halls and McDavids of the roster, and having a guy like that patrolling your third line is something the Oilers have been missing for years.

Peter Chiarelli was smart to negotiate a deal for less than Kassian’s qualifying offer, and generally speaking a one-year contract is a good way to go with any bottom-six player with an element of risk. To stick with the Oilers long-term, he needs to be better than he was this season. His size and his ructious nature mean he’s always going to be interesting, but his two-way performance in 2015-16 wasn’t what it needs to be if he is to remain in the NHL.

It was a great move by Chiarelli to give Kassian a one-year deal at a lower salary than last year. There’s no real risk here for the Oilers, and all we can do is hope that Kassian stays clean and contributes enough to earn himself another deal. If he doesn’t, the Oilers let him walk after the season is over. Smart move.

I would pursue Jason Demers. Although there may be better defenders available via trade, Edmonton needs to add to their overall depth. Demers is a bona fide top four NHL D available for money and immediately improves quality, depth and overall balance.

Troy Brouwer. I like what he could bring to the third line for the Oilers. He has also been a part of winning teams. The oilers need more of that experience in the room. Jamie McGinn. I like his style of play. This guy gets no love from Oilersnation. Wake up guys!

This has been answered multiple times. Stamkos, Backes, Lucic and Seabrook are the big-name targets. Makes sense to at least inquire about all of them.

*Looks at 2016 UFA list* Yeesh, can I say none of them? I really like the idea of David Backes playing for the Oilers, but from everything I’ve read so far he’s going to be asking for way more money and term than I’d be comfortable giving him.

I mean, if Stamkos wants to take a bargain contract and play with Connor for two years I’d be ALL OVER THAT.

More realistically I’d be rattling the cages of CBJ and NYR to see what it would take to get the negotiating rights to RFA Seth Jones and/or Kevin Hayes.

The obvious answer here is Jason Demers, and if Edmonton can’t land a defenceman via trade that’s obviously the No. 1 guy on the list. My belief, though, is that the best value in free agency is found in reliable depth players – people like Lee Stempniak last season. With that in mind, I’d be looking less to make a splash and more to add dependable veterans who are undervalued by the league as a whole. Chad Johnson, P-A Parenteau, Radim Vrbata, Michael Grabner and Riley Nash are all names that might fit that description.

Backes would be solid. Jason Demers would be great. RFAs like Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm, Tyson Barrie, or Seth Jones would be ideal but availability may vary depending on what Chiarelli wants to give up.

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