Monday Mailbag – October 19th

The weekend is over, practice retirement has ended, and you’re all looking for ways to kill company time. Thank Gord for the mailbag. Why? These here 3500+ words are not only going to teach you something, they should kill at least 15 minutes of whatever it is that you are supposed to be doing. If you have a question for the mailbag you can email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Enjoy.

Big money as in Scrivens and Nikitin? I’d say the odds of Ben Scrivens recovering a little are good. Nikitin is a defenseman. Every day that gets us closer to the playoffs increases his value. I don’t know why, only that it’s so.

I think Scrivens is the best bet to be called up. Nilsson looked good in his debut against Dallas considering he was facing a firing squad, but he also let in some REAL weird goals. He’s still a question mark at the NHL level, and while Scrivens obviously hasn’t been good during his time in Edmonton, he DOES have a track record as a solid backup option at the NHL level prior to falling into the Bermuda Crease in Edmonton. I don’t necessarily think he WILL be called up, but the odds are more in his favour in my opinion.

I don’t see them having trade value. My guess is Scrivens has the best chance. Nikitin’s lack of speed won’t improve in the AHL.

Outside of Nikitin and to a lesser extent Scrivens, what big money? Nikitin has negative trade value and the Oilers wouldn’t get much for Scrivens. Depending on injuries and performance, we could see both of them back in Edmonton at some point this season.

I think Ben Scrivens has the best chance to play on the Oilers or elsewhere. He can’t possibly be as bad as he was a year ago. If he bounces back in Bakersfield as expected then he can be a relatively inexpensive pickup at the deadline or even before then. Nilsson showed good (overall) in preseason and in hist first appearance but who knows how much that keeps up. Scrivens can bounce back.

I think we could see Ben Scrivens back in the NHL at some point. His cap hit makes it a little pricey for a trade option though. That is a high number for a back up.

The path toward Scrivens being recalled is clearest, because all it should take is an injury or for Anders Nilsson to struggle in a significant way; either of those is a plausible occurrence. Nikitin’s road to the NHL is more difficult, particularly if Darnell Nurse blows the doors off in the AHL, but if he plays solidly enough down there that’s possible, too. As far as trade value goes, all either player needs to do is demonstrate NHL-level ability at some point, even in a depth role, and they’ll either have value in trade at the deadline or value as warm bodies to allow the Oilers to trade someone else.

Of the two I would think Scrivens has the best chance of getting back to the NHL. Actually, I was surprised that Buffalo emphatically had no interest in Scrivens when Lehner went down for a couple months. He seemed like he would be a cheapish option to fill that hole, but Tim Murray isn’t asking for my opinion. He should though…

Maybe. I think Sekera may be coming back from the offseason injury a little and Fayne is playing without Andy Greene, who was his safety net. 

With Mark Fayne I think it’s more of a case of the system he played in, and having the advantage of playing with an incredibly solid partner in Andy Greene. New Jersey has been known as one of the most suffocatingly defensive teams in hockey for as long as I can remember. This Oilers team is still learning things like “covering your man” and “not passing the puck in front of your own net”, so any flaws he may have hidden in New Jersey are going to be exposed on a much worse team. 

Sekera I’m still not sure about. I think with him it’s more of a case of the entire team learning a new system and the defense still being a patchwork of mostly sixth and seventh D-men having to play above their heads.

Sekera has only played three games,  so it is way too early for me to comment on how he looks. Fayne was steady in NJ and he played a lot of minutes vs. the Kings in the playoffs, but I think it was more the style in NJ, not to mention Andy Greene is a heck of a Dman. Fayne played a simple game and Greene was the puck mover.

It’s awful early in the season to let a handful of games override what you thought about these players leading up to now. What did you think of Fayne in previous seasons? Last season? Same for Sekera. They are what they are and they’re playing on a bad team that is off to a bad start.

Lots of observers in LA really liked Sekera during his short time there. I think his issue is the new team and the new coach more than the conference. Fayne, meanwhile, did well playing with a really, really good partner in Andy Greene. Fayne can give you quiet minutes when he’s at his best, but I think Sekera can be more influential on the ice. I think it will come but we have to give it 15-20 games before he gets rally comfortable.

Combination of new team, new coach, new systems and new partner. In a perfect world this would be the Oilers’ second pair. It is a stretch to have them playing as a top pairing. That being said they can and will play better.

I don’t know about that. It’s going to take some time to tell with Sekera as he adjusts to a new team and new defence partner – his regular guy in Carolina was Justin Faulk, who does a lot of things that simply aren’t in Mark Fayne’s wheelhouse. I think he’ll be fine once he has it all down. Fayne is a limited player with specific abilities who can succeed spectacularly in a certain situation (such as with Andy Greene in a designated role in New Jersey); he’ll either come around when Sekera does or he won’t. 

Way too early to start writing off Andrej Sekera. He’s playing on his third team in two seasons (deadline deal to LA) and it will take him a minute to get settled. That being said, he needs to clean up those giveaways at the blue line because on a few occasions they’ve wound up in the back of the net. As for Fayne I think he is playing above his weight class and that’s not Fayne’s fault but more so a reflection of the Oilers depth on defense right now.

They have the goaltending, that was a big part of the missing link a year ago. I think Todd McLellan needs to find six defensenen he trusts. He has five now.

Play with consistency. I’m going to get roasted here because THE OILERS ARE LOSING so how dare anyone say anything positive! WE MUST JUST CONSTANTLY DWELL ON THE NEGATIVES!! But in their first two games, even though they LOST they outshot and out possessed two of arguably the top 10 teams in the league, and as far as I’m concerned a lot of the arrows looked to be pointing in the right direction. Yes they lost, and yes they couldn’t buy a goal, but I didn’t have that feeling of dread that they were completely out of the game as soon as a goal against was scored, like I have for the previous two or three seasons. Then against Dallas they came out completely flat, and aside from about 10 minutes in the second period, and a few odd chances here and there, they were soundly outclassed. If they had played the same game they did against Nashville I fully believe they would have left the Lone Star State with a win. 

If they come out banging and crashing, using their speed and skill, and don’t fold up shop the second they get down a goal or two, the wins will come. Probably not A LOT of wins, but some wins!

Consistency, consistency, consistency — in their overall effort and execution.

What they can’t do is waste solid goaltending performances like they did in the first three games. In the first two, they played reasonably well but couldn’t score. Against Dallas they were just no-shows. The to-do list is long, but it starts with consistent effort and being sticklers for execution. One without the other won’t cut it because this team isn’t good enough to overcome it.

The power play can’t be useless. The first three games Edmonton’s net minders allowed just seven goals against on 107 shots. They’re getting the job done. The problem in those games has been about scoring and the PP just hasn’t been effective enough.

I think the PP needs to improve. It is very difficult to win games if you are losing the special team battle every night. In this link I outline the issues on their PP.

I don’t think the defence works. The power play will come around, the top-six forwards have already started to and the goaltending has been pretty good, but the blue line is slow and lacks puck-moving ability and that’s crippling. It was bad to start with, and of Peter Chiarelli’s three off-season additions only one addresses both those areas in a meaningful way – and in the early going Sekera has clearly had trouble adjusting.

They need to find a way to generate more offense from their special teams. Saturday night’s game in Calgary was the first time the Oilers have really been able to get something going on the PP and they’ll need it if they want to make up some ground in the standings. 

Nah. He has an advantage because he’s facing the Eastern Conference and that’s an easier gig.

No. As I’ve said multiple times already this year Connor McDavid has had immense pressure on him since he was like 12 years old. He’s had cameras and microphones shoved in his face en masse since he entered the OHL at 15, and while the NHL is obviously the biggest stage of them all, I don’t think it’s much different than anything he’s already had to deal with. By my eye he hasn’t looked uncomfortable out there, or that he’s trying to do too much. He looked like he belonged instantly. 

And just like Connor McDavid, Eichel is also tasked with more or less single handedly turning an entire franchise around. McDavid at least has the fortune of being one of a GROUP of players who were supposed to be that guy over the last five years. Jack Eichel doesn’t have that luxury. It’s him or bust.

Maybe a little bit, but McDavid has been fine. McDavid is used to dealing with hype, so I believe he is used to it. Scoring his first goal will allow him to relax.

No way of knowing, but I suspect the answer is “no.” I don’t know how much pressure Eichel feels or how he processes it. Same for McDavid.

Every player in his peer group has been able to face less pressure than McDavid from the time he was in Junior High. It’s just something that McDavid will have to deal with forever and to day he’s managed just fine. Does that give Eichel the Calder edge? I don’t know. Playing in the Leastern Conference probably gives Eichel the bigger advantage.

There is a difference between going one or two in the draft. I think Connor has put a lot of pressure on himself, too much in fact. His veteran team mates I hope are telling him to just go and play and not to worry about the outside noise or expecting to have to do it all himself. He is a smart young guy but he is a young guy.

McDavid wouldn’t have gone first overall if he wasn’t capable of handling obscene amounts of pressure at a young age, and Buffalo is a pretty hockey-mad market in its own right.

Maybe? I guess on one hand you don’t see every hockey website with a live blog of what Jack Eichel is doing and I’m sure that’s kind of nice. That being said, Connor McDavid has been facing outside pressures since he was a 14 years old and I think he’ll manage things fine. I don’t think anyone was worried about him when he was lighting up the Flames on Saturday.

I think people have 10 years of suffering and would like to watch 80 games that are exciting while drinking beer and getting a slow buzz. The way this team has played the last 10 years, I start at happy hour and don’t let up until last call.

Sadly no, not at all. I would like to chalk it up to the fact that the Oilers have been so bad for so long that we’re used to expecting the worst, but I honestly think there is a group of fans who will NEVER be happy. McDavid scores his first goal? “TOOK HIM LONG ENOUGH AND IT WASN’T EVEN THAT NICE! ALSO EICHEL HAS TWO ALREADY!” Oilers go on a four game own streak? “YEAH BUT THEY LOST THE FIRST THREE!” It’s incredibly tiresome and the worst part is we’ll all have to share in Stanley Cup revelry with these negative Nancy’s and they’re gonna act like they had faith all along. I CAN’T WAIT!

I’m not surprised, but the vocal minority doesn’t speak for the majority of fans. Only a clueless fan would think coaching is the issue three games into the season.

No, I’m not surprised at all. Having watched almost a decade of ineptitude and failure, cynicism and panic at the first hint of trouble are the hallmarks of Oiler fans.

Nothing surprises me anymore. There are loud but small groups of Oiler fans who will blame all the losses on Hall, RNH, or Yak if any one of them makes the slightest mistake in the game. Why should McLellan or Chiarelli be any different?

Ha! I don’t remember any of the Oilers brass saying they were going to make the playoffs. It takes time to change habits. If at the end of this season we don’t see an improved style of play by the group that will be disappointing.

One of the most dangerous times in the transition from a dictatorial regime to a freer society is during the reform process, particularly if that process stalls; what seems to happen sometimes is that a despairing and defeated people get hope and when that hope is shaken they revolt in ways they would not otherwise have done. It’s an old (Biblical, in fact) maxim that hope deferred makes the heart sick, and it’s interesting in retrospect how quickly the situation among fans deteriorated after Craig MacTavish was installed as general manager. Peter Chiarelli, Todd McLellan and Connor McDavid represented hope, and that hope is impatient.

I’m not surprised that some fans turned on the coach when the team opened up 0-4. Oilers fans have been through a lot and are tired of excuses and moral victories. That being said, that start may have also been a blessing in terms of readjusting their expectations.