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Monday Mailbag – Trading #10 and expectations for next year

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Photo credit:Tom Kostiuk
baggedmilk
5 years ago
It’s Monday again, practice retirement is over, and that means that it’s time for another Mailbag to help you get through the day. As always, I’ve sent off your questions about the draft, trading the 10th overall pick, and anything else you wanted to know to our writers for their thoughts and feedback. Now it’s time to tilt your chair back to a comfortable position because we’ve got 3000 words worth of company time wasting wisdom coming at you in this week’s mailbag. As always, I need your questions to make this work. If you’ve got one, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk and I’ll get to you as soon as we can.
Bill Daly holds the card showing that the Edmonton Oilers will select 10th overall in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.
1) Andrew asks – Isn’t it counter-intuitive to be trading our draft picks away for immediate help since the reason we need immediate help is that our development pool has been dry in past years? Shouldn’t the focus be on replenishing talent in Bakersfield, especially since the NHL is a salary cap league and because an expansion draft is on the horizon?
Jason Gregor:
The main focus should be on winning in Edmonton, and at the same time building up the farm team. I also wouldn’t trade the 10th overall pick, unless the deal is outstanding, and history tells us the teams who trade the 7-10th pick for vets end up losing the trade, so I would keep that. But, if they can move their second-round pick in some sort of package for a proven player, then I’d strongly look at that.
Robin Brownlee:
What makes sense in theory — drafting and developing players — gets put to the test in real life when that process takes time and people are screaming like hell because they want results NOW. That’s not unreasonable given all the failure here over the last 12 years, but it does make the “this will take time” approach a harder sell.
Matt Henderson:
Yeah, I’d say that the Oilers are in a position where ANY decision with the 10th overall pick could be justified as long as the execution of the decision is done well. If they use it and take a blue chipper, great. If they trade it and get a 22-year-old who can play with McDavid for five years, great. If they trade it and get Reinhart then we’re in for a bumpy road.
Chris the Intern:
You’re on the right track. But from what I hear there is a significant drop in skill after the ninth pick. If it’s going to be worth our while to package our 10th pick and trade up for someone actually good then I’m all for it.
Baggedmilk:
Have we forgotten how badly Peter Chiarelli mangled the Griffin Reinhart trade? Have we? Personally, I don’t want to see that again and there’s also an expansion draft coming up again which means this pick would be exempt. Use the pick.
2) Vince asks – Who were your biggest winners and losers from the NHL Draft Lottery?
Jason Gregor:
Buffalo is the biggest winner because they have the first pick. Carolina moving up nine spots to #2 is also a big winner. I don’t see many major losers, but Ottawa and Arizona each dropping two spots isn’t ideal. We’ll see who they end up with, but the Sabres ensuring they get Dahlin are easily the big winners for me, followed by the Hurricanes.
Robin Brownlee:
Carolina moving all the way up to No. 2 makes them the big winner based on percentages going in, but Buffalo wins the day by getting a crack at Dahlin, who’ll be a franchise player. Don’t see any big losers, but that’ll play out on draft day.
Matt Henderson:
I think Carolina is set to finally add a deadly sniper to their team. So they’re huge winners. Their club has needed that guy forever. Loser? I don’t know if I think anyone got really screwed. We’ll find out at the draft.
Chris the Intern:
Winners: Buffalo, Montreal
Losers: Edmonton
Baggedmilk:
Carolina moved way up so they’re a winner for sure. Edmonton fell back a spot which makes them a loser. So is Vancouver. So is Ottawa. Misery loves company?
3) Kris asks – I’d like to know what everyone thinks about the Swedish players, including Rasmus Dahlin, being suspended for what happened at the World Juniors medal ceremony?
Jason Gregor:
Overreaction. Taking off a medal and holding it your hand isn’t that big a deal for me.
Robin Brownlee:
An overreaction to something I didn’t think was very significant. Maybe if they just licked somebody . . .
Matt Henderson:
Hockey is weird. You show everyone how disappointed you are losing the most important game of your life and its suspension time. Lick a guy in his face and nothing.
Chris the Intern:
I was actually shocked that there is actually a written rule about disrespecting the medal in their rulebook. When I saw that, I understand the suspensions 100%. This has likely been in their league for a while and yes the Swedish players broke that rule. BUT the rule itself is questionable, obviously. You would never see anything like that in North America, but since it is internationally made, it’s not completely mindblowing that it happened. Other countries take pride in trophies like that so that’s why the rule was made.
Baggedmilk:
It’s ridiculous. Apparently taking off your medal is disrespectful, which is absurd. Losing is supposed to be bad and I was happy to see these Swedish kids act like they hated it. Weak all around.
4) John asks – Even with all the concerns in Edmonton over our drafting ability, current holes in lineup, not winning the lottery, etc… what do you feel is a realistic expectation of total points (assuming no major trades) given a healthy Oilers team with the right line combo’s (McNuge, Strome 3rd line center, Drai centering his own line). Do we anticipate we’ll be closer to the 78 points from last season or the 103 from the 2016-17 season?
Jason Gregor:
At this point, I see them right in the middle around 92…depending on health and if they add some proven vet RW on short deals then they could be in 95 range and competing for playoff spot. They should be able to compete for a playoff spot at the very least.
Robin Brownlee:
A realistic expectation in the middle of May? Assuming no major trades and the right line combos? I don’t have as much faith as you do. I don’t think you can have a realistic expectation before you know what the team looks like, but if you want a guess then I think they are capable of something in the low-90s.
Matt Henderson:
I think if nothing changes but Klefbom and Sekera are healthy AND the Oilers get league average goaltending the club is in the 90’s.
Chris the Intern:
I do think our 103 point season was a tad bit too good to be true, however, I think a completely healthy will get us close. I’m guessing 95 points.
Baggedmilk:
If they don’t make the playoffs next year then everybody from the top down should be fired. Having Connor McDavid on your roster and missing in three out of four years would be a colossal failure. It’s either playoffs or pink slips. Well… I thought it should have been that way this year but what the hell do I know?
5) Kevin asks – How do the Vegas Golden Knights keep doing what they’re doing?
Jason Gregor:
Riding a wave of momentum. We’ve seen many teams — not expansion teams, but #8 seeds — make great playoff runs, but I’m still skeptical that they can carry that emotion and momentum into next season. If they do, then I will buy Struds two new sweaters.
Robin Brownlee:
The players have been promised free shrimp cocktails for life downtown on Freemont Street for making the conference final . . . for me, this looks like a group of players who feel they have something to prove as expansion cast-offs. They play for each other and they play with great energy. I’d love to see them win the Stanley Cup. Even if they don’t, and I suspect they won’t, it’s been a great story.
Matt Henderson:
The gift of Dale Tallon keeps on giving and giving and giving. Also magic.
Chris the Intern:
They are a team made up of solid second/third liners which essentially makes them one of the deepest teams in the league. Oh, and Marc-Andre Fleury.
Baggedmilk:
The holy spirit? It’s amazing, really. Looking at their roster there is no way that the Golden Knights should be this successful and yet, here we are. My answer, and I can say this confidently, is that I have no idea how they’re doing it. Guys are shooting the lights out, the team is fast and fun to watch, and no one seems able to figure them out. It’s amazing.

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