Monday Mailbag – What is Leon Draisaitl’s ceiling?
By baggedmilk
4 years agoHello hello, fine citizens. It’s your old friend Baggedmilk back with another edition of the Monday Mailbag to fill your brain bank with all kinds of free knowledge. This week, we’re looking at Ethan Bear’s strong play, Leon Draisaitl’s ceiling, goaltending, and a whole lot more. As always, I need you guys to help me make this work so if you have a question for next week, you can always hit me up through email or on Twitter. Until then, enjoy the reprieve from work and/or life. Enjoy.
Oct 18, 2019; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defensemen Ethan Bear (74) celebrates his second period goal against the Detroit Red Wings at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
1) The Older I Get, the Better I Was asks – It is very early days in the year, but I’ve been amazed by @Ethan Bear’s play so far. He’s logging high minutes in tough situations and thriving. What do you think it would take over the balance of the year for him to be in serious consideration as NHL Rookie of the Year?
Jason Gregor:
There have been 86 Calder Trophy winners and only 11 D-men have won it, along with 16 goalies, 12 left wingers, 18 right wingers and 29 centres. D-men have won the award the fewest times of any position. Then you add in the only two defenders have won it without scoring at least 30 points were Kent Douglas (1963) and Barrett Jackman (2003). Bear is on pace for 23 points. Aaron Ekblad won in 2015 with 12-27-39 and Tyler Myers had 11-37-48 in 2010. Points aren’t everything, but most times they are a big factor.
There is more access to other stats and analytics so voters can dig deeper to find out which rookies have had the best seasons. Right now fellow D-men Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar each have 10 points. Both of them get PP time and Hughes has eight PP points while Makar has six. Bear would need to get PP time and production to get in the conversation I suspect. Bear has played much more at 5×5 and that should be considered, but it is rare that D-men win the award based solely on their matchups and defensive play.
Robin Brownlee:
He’ll likely have to put pick up his offensive numbers because that always attracts attention. The amount of ice time he’s logging is secondary to what he does with the ice time he gets. Other rookie D-men like Cale Makar (11 points) of Colorado and Quinn Hughes (10 points) of Vancouver are well ahead of Bear at this point.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
It would take him continuing to go up against, and thrive, against top-end competition every single night. That is a very tall order and while he’s proving he can handle it right now, it’s a whole different story to do it over the course of 82 games. He would likely need to be in the 35-45 point range as well. Guys like Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes probably push him out of the discussion by years end. That’s not a knock on Bear but those two are just wildly gifted offensive defensemen.
Christian Pagnani:
He’d need to play virtually all of the games. Average at least 20 minutes a night and score around 20-25 points. Probably closer to 30 if he wants any realistic shot. Bear’s on pace for 22 points. I don’t think that would be enough, especially with @Cale Makar and @Quinn Hughes putting up points.
Baggedmilk:
On the Oilersnation Radio podcast, my bold prediction for the season was that Ethan Bear would be the second runner-up for the Calder Trophy and I’m sticking to it. If he can get his point production up a little bit, I think he can make it in the conversation. Drink that Kool-Aid, people!
Oct 22, 2019; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (29) protects the puck from Minnesota Wild forward Luke Kunin (19) during the third period at Xcel Energy Center.
2) Trent asks – Obviously, @Leon Draisaitl has been an incredible performer for the Oilers this year but I’m wondering where everyone thinks his ceiling is? How much better do you think he can get, and what does he still need to work on?
Jason Gregor:
Hard to get much better than he is now. Small decisions in the D-zone can improve, but what you see now is likely going to be what we see over the next few seasons. He is one of the best players in the NHL already, and I suspect he can remain there moving forward. His room to improve from where he is today is very small. It likely will come in the defensive zone.
Robin Brownlee:
I’d say he’s at or near the ceiling you talk about — he’s found his level. He’s showing last season wasn’t a one-off. If Draisaitl is consistently in the 45-55 goal, 95-105 point range, which he looks capable of, then he’s one of the best five forwards in the game. Even if he cools off a bit for the rest of the season, which he will, he’s still going to reach those numbers unless he gets hurt and misses a substantial number of games.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I believe that Connor McDavid will one day post 100 assists in a season. After watching Leon Draisasitl for a month, I think one day he will score 60 goals in a season. Is it this year? Maybe not. But it will come soon. His shooting percentage is over 20% which seems unsustainable but considering how lethal he is from every single part of the ice and the fact he plays with Connor McDavid, he might just be a guy who always shoots around 20%.
Christian Pagnani:
I don’t think he can go much higher than this, which is a level I didn’t think he’d reach. I thought he could stay around 65-75 points, with a career year in the 90-range if he played a bunch with McDavid. I was assuming he’d end up on his own line with lesser linemates and that would put his totals down from. This is pretty much as you can ask from him. He’s continuing from last season and on pace for 70 goals and 140 points. That’s not going to happen, but I also thought he’d never reach 100 points. Another 100-point season would be phenomenal.
Baggedmilk:
I think there’s always room to improve in the defensive zone no matter how good you are so I’ll say that he still has some room to tidy up in there. Where is point ceiling is, though? The sky seems like the limit for this dude.
3) Carrie asks – It’s been great to see both Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith play well to start this season, but how long do you think Tippett will give them an even split on their starts? At some point, do you see one guy taking over more of the workload as the season goes along or will they maintain the status quo while things are going well?
Jason Gregor:
It should remain even. Smith has started nine of 15. I don’t think he has played that much better to deserve three more starts. But Koskinen could play the next two and then it would be 9-8 again. I suspect they will both be close to 40 starts, unless one gets injured or one starts to struggle. Keeping both fresh will benefit them and the team.
Robin Brownlee:
Why would Tippett mess with a formula that’s working so well right now? It makes no sense to change unless one of the two falters badly.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I think Tippett trusts Smith more but I believe Koskinen has been the better goaltender. As long as they’re both keeping up their current level of play, Tippett has no reason to stop doing exactly what he’s currently doing. However, one goalie will hit a cold patch soon enough and when that time comes, he’ll have to lean on the other one more heavily. Koskinen has been tremendous and if there was a ‘must-win’ game coming up, I’d want him starting.
Christian Pagnani:
As long as it works and so far it has. If one of them goes cold then I bet you’ll see the other take a hold of the job, but for now, I don’t see why you wouldn’t continue with a split in starts.
Baggedmilk:
I actually don’t mind if Tippett keeps splitting things evenly provided that both guys keep playing as well as they have been. Whatever works!
Mar 21, 2019; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Zack Kassian (44) tries to screen Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo (70) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
4) Michael asks – @Zack Kassian is in a contract year and he’s getting the chance to play alongside @Connor McDavid and @Leon Draisaitl. How much thought, if any, do you think goes into his next deal when placing him in the lineup? If his contract is not a factor, should it be?
Jason Gregor:
Not much to be honest. The coach wants to win games. He doesn’t worry about contracts. And Kassian should have a career year if he plays there all season, but I think most GMs would recognize the reason he had a great season. He has shown he is capable of being a complementary top-six forward, but I don’t see it translating into a massive raise.
Robin Brownlee:
Coaches don’t look at salary when drawing up their lineups, fans do. If he’s a 15-goal, 40-point guy playing with them and shows he’s capable of sticking that high in the lineup, pay him accordingly. What I look at with a player of Kassian’s age — he turns 29 in January — is length of contract. I wouldn’t want to go beyond three years at his age.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
The fact he’s in a contract year should have no bearing on where he plays in the lineup. You don’t just bury a goal on the third or fourth line so his next deal can be a little bit cheaper. I would hope that this summer Kassian recognizes how good he has it here in Edmonton and that while another organization could maybe offer him more money, they can’t offer him top-line minutes with Connor McDavid and a chance to be a key piece on what will hopefully be a Stanley Cup competitor.
Christian Pagnani:
I doubt Tippett cares much about his contract status. Patrick Maroon showed teams are jumping to pay a guy whose playing alongside star players. it Kassian wants more than $2 million I wouldn’t even blink an eye before letting him walk. His contract situation is irrelevant to me. Kassian shows just about anyone can jump on that line and score 45 points.
Baggedmilk:
His next contract has no bearing on where he plays in the lineup. Right now, the only priority is winning and what happens with the upcoming UFAs is a bridge that will be crossed later.
5) Stephen asks – The Oilers play 14 games in November, and I’d like to know what everyone is thinking would be an acceptable record over that time. Some of the notable divisional matchups include two games against the Sharks, two against the Coyotes, and one against each of LA, Anaheim, Vancouver, and Vegas.
Jason Gregor:
They play eight on the road and six at home, exactly like October. A win over Pittsburgh, mainly on the back of Mike Smith and the PK was a great start. Priro to the first games I felt if they went 7-6-1 or better Oilers fans should be thrilled. I think 8-5-1 would be outstanding.
Robin Brownlee:
If we believe the Oilers are as good, or close to as good — special teams were ridiculously good early and will settle in at more modest numbers — as their record at this point then I think we have to get beyond what’s acceptable and look for more. They’ve got 21 points after 15 games. I’d expect 16-18 from the next 14 games however you want to divide up the wins/losses/OT.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I predicted 7-6-1 over that span but just looking at who they play and the state of some of those teams (San Jose is playing bad, Colorado is hurt) I think they could easily go 9-4-1. If the depth scoring gets going, I don’t see why they can’t repeat the success they had in October.
Christian Pagnani:
Anything close to 7-6-1 or 7-7 would be encouraging.
Baggedmilk:
I’m going with 8-3-4. Anything at .500 would be decent, though, really.
#NATIONROADTRIP TO CALGARY
- When? Saturday, January 11th, 2020
- How much? The depends on how many people are coming with you. To put it another way, we’ve got a range of options including single occupancy ($379/person), double occupancy ($309), up to groups of four ($269/person).
- Why? Because we love to party
- Where do you buy tickets? Right here, friend. But be warned, just like every time we’ve done this, this trip will sell out quickly so procrastinating is your enemy here.
What your ticket gets you:
- Entry to the Dome (January 11th)
- Transportation to and from Calgary (starting in Edmonton, also stopping in Red Deer for lunch/pickup)
- Accommodations at the Best Western Downtown (1330 8th Street SW)
- Prizes, Giveaways and a chance to mingle with 30 of our friends from Finland
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