Monday Mailbag – What’s the ideal development path for Bouchard and Bear?

Welcome, welcome, welcome, friends, to another edition of the Monday mailbag. Once again, it’s that special time of the week where I’ve taken the questions you’ve sent me and fired them over to our writers to get all the answers and wisdom that you’ve always been looking for. This week, we look at PTOs, points predictions for Milan Lucic, the depth chart, and more. And I know I say this every week, but this segment is entirely dependent on you guys to make it work, so send me your questions. You can email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk.com.

I’d be keeping tabs on Jason Chimera. Other than him, I don’t see a need to offer a PTO to anybody because I don’t see a bunch of players who bring anything they don’t already have.

A right shot D-man would be ideal, but there aren’t many available. Kevin Bieksa and Cody Franson are the only two with NHL experience. I’d also look to Alexei Emelin. Bieksa and Emelin would at least annoy the opposition during the preseason.

They might squeeze in one more PTO on the blueline. I think if they can bring ANY right handed defender in to offer legit competition to Bouchard and Bear that would be great.

I wouldn’t mind inviting a defenceman or two to camp. Maybe Franson? Maybe Chia should beg Davidson for forgiveness and try that again? I have a feeling Upshall will be the only guy coming, though. The PTO chatter has seemed very quiet lately.

I guess it all depends on how much cap space they have left after the Nurse contract. I’d like to see them try to have looks at more depth on the wings and another defenceman for some competition, but there’s not much out there. But waivers after training camp is always a thing too, and sometimes there’s gold in that there trash… or at least, myrrh.

Projecting 22 points (in anything close to a full season) for Lucic is ridiculous. I’ve got him at 20-25-45.

It is low. He will rebound. He won’t be nearly as bad as his final 46 games and likely won’t produce 26 points in his first 36 games. I’ll say 44 points.

I’d bet higher than 22 points just on opportunity alone. He’s going to be hand-fed playing time with quality teammates in the offensive zone. I think he’ll be somewhere between his first-half performance and the disaster he finished with. So let’s say a solid 38 points.

If Lucic only scores 22 points this season I’m going to tear my laptop in half. I’m predicting 55 points for the big guy. A nice bounce-back year.

Honestly, I think they’re trolling for clicks with a guess of 22 points for Lucic. Dude had a horrible season last year, there’s no doubt about it, but I’m guessing he’ll have 20 goals again this year let alone 22 total points. Trolling, my friends. The Internet at work.

With any prospects, be it junior hockey or college hockey etc., there can be swings from year to year with where those players come from based on where the best guys are playing. Look at the lack of first-rounders from the WHL in the 2018 draft. In 2019, the first round will be loaded with WHL players — there were 11 of them on the Hlinka Gretzky Cup team. I don’t think the Oilers have set out to lean more heavily on college players.

Young free agents is main reason, although they did trade for Marody, and the Oilers depth pool was basically non-existent so they needed to find some players who could add depth. In the coming seasons with an actual prospect pool in place, I suspect they sign fewer NCAA free agents.

You pretty much answered your question. Those college kids are free prospects. Given the questionable drafting after the first round, adding these guys is practically necessary. And if one of them can actually play down the road, then great. It’s better to sign these guys as free agents than take long shots on draft day higher than they ought to.

More and more NHL teams are doing this to speed up the development of prospects. College players are a little older, a little wiser, and a little bigger. Caggiula made the team right after being signed from U. of North Dakota for example.

I think there are a few different reasons. When a guy is done with four years of college you’d have a better idea of how he’ll play against older, stronger competition, and sometimes, all it costs is a contract. The Oilers didn’t have much for skilled depth in the pipeline so I’m not overly surprised Chiarelli and crew tried to plug those holes with guys that could help now and be competitive.

I’d rather see Puljujarvi get the first look with McDavid.

I don’t see Yamamoto in Edmonton to start. Rattie won’t just be gifted the top spot. He will come to camp and have to show he improved his strength and conditioning in the off-season. If he did, and looks decent, then he might get the first line look because he has the smarts to play with 97-93. From conversations I’ve had I don’t think they have anyone locked into a spot at this point. They have some lines in pencil, because you need to start camp with some combination, but nothing is for sure on the right side.

I think they start the year with Rattie beside McDavid, Puljujarvi beside Draisaitl, Rieder on the third with Strome, and Yamo in the AHL. When Rattie fails/Yamo destroys the AHL we’ll see change. If Puljujarvi is saddled next to Strome and Lucic again it’s just begging him to fail.

I feel like Yamamoto is a bold pick on the top line. My guess to start the season we’ll see Rattie, Rieder, Puljujarvi, and Kassian. With Upshall in the mix now the bottom six will definitely be a battle.

I bet they give Rattie a look to start unless Yamamoto or Puljujarvi blows everyone away in training camp. So let’s say Rattie does work out there for a bit, I’ll put Rieder on the second line with Lucic and Draisaitl and Puljujarvi on the third line with Strome. Unless Yamamoto blows the doors off the place in training camp, I’d like to see him work his way up to the NHL.

I think Bear likely needs more time in the AHL and Bouchard probably needs more time in the OHL (can’t go to the AHL because of his age). What I think should happen and what will actually happen are two different things.

Bear needs more time in AHL improving his defensive game, which is usual for most young defenders. Bouchard will be back in junior as well. We could see Bear at some point this season, but the best path for both is not being a regular in Edmonton this season.

Ideal development for both players as per Matt:

Bear is clearly better than Bouchard in this camp but the Oilers sign Franson/anyone reasonable to be the 7/8 guy and Bear spends the first half of the year lighting up the AHL before being called up in December.

Bouchard looks really solid in training camp and even shows flashes in his first four NHL games, but the team sends him back to the OHL where he completely dominates the league. He returns next season and is incredible but because they already have Karlsson, Benning, and Bear they send Bouchard to the AHL while working on a trade to free up a spot in the top-six.

I don’t want to answer this until I see Bouchard in training camp because we have no idea what he’s going to be like. Tradition would have it for Bouchard to go back to junior, however, if the rumours are true that he is one of the most NHL ready prospects then maybe he’ll surprise us. For Bear, I’d like to see him maybe play 30-40 games this season? If he progresses properly maybe he can land a spot on the team next season.

I wish Bouchard could go to the AHL but that’s not an option so, for me, it would be spending another year in junior and rounding out his game. For Bear, I’d like to see him go back to the Condors and play big minutes, because that’ll help him more in the long run than third pairing minutes with the Oilers.

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