Monday Mailbag – Why is Kris Russell so dividing?

Everyone quiet down — it’s time to learn something! It’s draft week and that means that we’re getting set to throw another draft party and killing timing until Friday takes a team effort. As always, I’ve taken five of your questions and sent them off to our panel of Nation writers to give their input and worldly wisdom. I need questions for next week so if you have something you’d like to ask you can email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter. Without further adieu, the Mailbag. Enjoy.

I think a lot of the gap is based on how we see the game. If you value analytics and possession stats, then Russell’s season can’t be balanced against the results, suggesting luck. If you value blocked shots, rugged play and defending, then you probably like Russell. If you’re in between, then you’re in between. Analytics folks aren’t saying they don’t like Russell (well, most of them), but are saying this season just posted by Russell is unlikely to be repeated.

There are a lot of reasons, and I tried to cover as many as I could in my year-end look at Russell’s season. But I don’t think it’s that abnormal – we’ve seen similar divergence on players like Jeff Petry, Sam Gagner and even to some extent Jordan Eberle. What makes Russell special is that in the four years he’s had two seasons where he’s dramatically outperformed his shot metrics, and two seasons where he’s basically been the equal of them. I’d guess that after next season, whichever direction he goes, there will be a lot more agreement on exactly what level of player he is.

I understand the concern in signing him to four-year deal. I wouldn’t sign him for that long unless it was cheap, but saying he has no value is simply untrue in my eyes. The stats show it. In his career, he has a 49% FF and a 52%GF. His stats put him in the top 130-140 D-men on the planet. To be in the top 99.9% of hockey players means you are good at hockey. Everyone has a bias, and sometimes people don’t realize when their bias limits their ability to see the entire picture. He isn’t an elite NHL defender, but he isn’t a plug. Fact is at $3 million last season he was great value for the Oilers. I find some will use specific stats rather than the entire picture. If you try to take out his blocked shots and only use unblocked attempts that is eliminating the thing he is best at. How is that an accurate assessment of a player? I don’t love how many shots are blocked in today’s NHL — heck even Erik Karlsson blocks a lot — but it is a skill and a valued one in today’s game.

I think it stems from a philosophical divide in how you assess defenders. For example, I think it’s incredibly misguided to ignore everything else that happens on the ice and focus solely on the goals. One issue is that it creates a very inaccurate picture painted primarily by the goaltenders on the ice. We are looking for how a skater affects the game and measuring something controlled by non-skaters. If a winger shoots 19% one season we anoint him a sniper. If a defender has a high on-ice save percentage we call him a stalwart. This happens regardless of the process and it’s typically lazy and hollow. It leads to many false assumptions.

In the case of Russell, we have a player who started his career fairly well but over the last three seasons he’s been a massive drag on the kinds of thing that skaters control. For example, has a 46.6% Unblocked Attempt ratio over that time and it’s trending the wrong way. Watching him play identifies the major issues right away: he’s passive on entries and poor at moving the puck up the ice. As an Oiler he and Sekera enjoyed an incredible amount of goaltending success behind them, but Russell in particular had a pronounced and measurable negative effect on the the offensive output of the team from basic attempts all the way through to actual point production.

Any sane person who isn’t too lazy to look at the data has no choice but to admit this player was a drain on the team and holds very little value moving forward.

Kris Russell has value as a competent NHL defender who does some things very well. If you can’t see that, then you aren’t paying attention and are relying far too heavily on numbers that don’t accurately tell the entire story. If Russell is your 4-5-6 guy then you’ve got a pretty good blueline group. I don’t think signing Russell to any contract beyond three years at an AAV of $3.5-$3.75 million makes sense for the Oilers, but that doesn’t make him the stiff Matt Henderson chooses to portray him as.

It’s literally all the numbers. Kris Russell is a prime example of how numbers don’t tell the whole story about a player. I think it’s important to take bits and pieces from both sides to make a conclusion for yourself.

Cam Lewis: Kris Russell is at the epicentre of a debate between two sides that has completely exploded over the past few years. There’s so much history between the two sides — those who are traditional and value the eye test and the intangibles that smart hockey people just intrinsically notice, and those who value the collection and interpretation of objective data — that a discussion about Kris Russell represents so much more than just him as a player.

There’s a pretty massive personal difference that goes on here. Old school hockey types who have been around the game for their entire lives are disturbed at the idea of being uprooted by people who offer something that they don’t necessarily perceive as valuable. And, of course, those people have pored hours upon hours into rigorous testing to determine what actually results in future success, and they believe in what they’re offering. Add it all up, the personalties, the ideologies, and you have a beef that goes back forth between “you don’t get it” “no YOU don’t get it” with no end.

In regards to Russell specifically, he isn’t as bad as the stats community suggests and he isn’t as good as the old schoolers will have you believe. The fact is, he plugged a hole for a team last season and did so admirably. He’s an endearing player who works hard and can make life difficult on the other team in the D-zone, but as the numbers suggest, he doesn’t break the puck out well and he gets guttered because of it. For a year or two on the cheap? Sure, why not. For $4 by four? Hell no.

It all comes down to rumours and pay. If the rumour out there was that Kris Russell wanted a four year deal at $2 million then this conversation wouldn’t be happening right now, but the idea of paying him 4×4 is enough to get the Nation fired up.

Second pairing is the biggest weakness because they don’t have one. Sekera coming back mid-season will help but the Oilers need to address RHD this summer. Greatest strength? Connor McDavid in the lineup.

There’s still a lack of a true No. 1 defenceman (though teams can win without one, as Pittsburgh showed this season sans Kris Letang). The greatest strength, without question, is Connor McDavid. The reason so many teams have long rebuilding programs is that it takes elite talent to win, and he’s as elite as they come.

Forward depth. They have very little skilled scoring depth in the organization.

The second pairing and the second line are huge question marks for me. The team needs a tandem who can handle 20 minutes a night and actually push the play forward. With Sekera hurt, it’s an issue. The second line concerns me. In the regular season their struggles were apparent but McDavid was so amazing it didn’t matter. In the playoffs, the lack of offense from Nuge, Eberle, and to a lesser extent Lucic was a problem. With Draisaitl almost ready to take over 2C that might mean defense is the bigger issue.

The Oilers need more skilled forwards in the system. There’s not much in the pipeline right now. If I’m Chiarelli I’m adding skill because he’s added plenty of size already to address what used to be a deficiency.

I’d say the whole right side of the lineup. I would like some re-enforcement with some right handed defencemen as well as some more depth on the right wing.

Cam Lewis: Centre depth is a major strength for the Oilers, as not many teams can match Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins down the middle. It gives them some major versatility up front and it makes them difficult to line-match. The biggest weakness is offence from the blue line. Oscar Klefbom seems to be emerging into a No. 1 defenceman who can move the puck, but the Oilers don’t have anybody who can really quarterback a power play, launch a bomb from the point, or really drive offence back there.

Right now, the biggest weakness is the second pairing because they don’t have one. Sekera is hurt and they don’t have the other player signed yet. Whether that player is Russell or otherwise, the Oilers need to figure that out because it’s a big hole right now. Check back with me next week just in case they trade Eberle for a bag of pucks.

No, not at all.  I have been contacted by a media member over something I’ve written about a player, and in that case the media member was correct.

Nope.

I know they read it. I’ve had many players bring up articles, but I’ve never had a player or coach come at me in a confrontational matter. We have discussions, but as long as you don’t take personal pot shots at a player I find you can have mature disagreements.

I’ve been approached by people close to players. I know lots of family and friends of players read sites like ON and will often point them to the material. No players themselves have reached out to me. I know things I’ve written have ended up in a pile of related reading dropped on people’s desks but that’s as far as I’ve been told.

Been approached many times but not confronted more than a few times — in both cases when I worked the beat and was with the team all the time. That’s not the case now. Had a pretty good tilt with Kevin Lowe years ago after I reported he was willing to trade Jason Smith. He was mad as hell, but the information was good even though no deal came off at the time. Kevin was pretty edgy when he read something he didn’t like. Players read Oilersnation, but I’m not sure it has the same clout as what appears in the dailies just because much of it gets dismissed as stuff produced by people not really in the know.

They’ve GOT TO read Oilersnation, or go on Twitter. I can only imagine all the down time those guys have on travel days and such so I can’t see how they’re not online. I don’t often say a lot of bad things about the players so I’m never too worried about being approached.

Cam Lewis: I got called out in my Twitter DMs by a player in the Blue Jays organization.

I know they read it. We’ve had events where players have talked to us about the website. Am I worried? No. At worst, I say I guy sucks and make a bad joke to go along with it. If they can’t handle that then they’ve got a whole other set of issues.

Griffin Reinhart as it currently stands, but things may change. He is young and is under control for years. Las Vegas won’t have many of those players after the expansion draft.

Right now (Thursday) I’d say Jujhar Khaira or Griffin Reinhart, with Khaira being the guy I’d pick. Because of the way expansion is structured, there are more defencemen available than centres, and Khaira/Reinhart are at similar stages in their career and project as playing at about the same level in the NHL.

Griffin Reinhart. He is a young D-man who still has some upside.

I’m going to guess Reinhart because he still might become an NHL D eventually. Next guess is Khaira. I don’t know if signing him to a two-year minimum deal is enticing for Vegas or a sign that the Oilers know he won’t be the one taken.

Has to be Griffin Reinhart. I still think there’s a player there and I bet George McPhee does, too.

I think this all depends on IF there is a trade beforehand. If we trade Eberle (or a forward) and land a defenceman then we have to leave Kassian & Letestu exposed. Initially, I would have assumed Jujhar Khaira would get picked up but if Letestu or Kass is exposed I think they’re gone.

Cam Lewis: I would be shocked it it wasn’t Reinhart. It would be hilarious if Vegas iced him and Yakupov next season. The 2012 draft is funny.

Since pretty much everyone else is saying Reinhart I’m going to take a hard left on this one. I’m going to say that Chiarelli pulls a horseshoe out his ass and convinces George McPhee to take Pouliot. How does he do that? He buys him chocolate, throws him some draft picks, writes McPhee-related poetry, and offers to get George’s face tattooed on his chest. It could work.

I think there are reasons for both teams to have done it, but really like the deal for Tampa Bay. They were about to lose a really good forward, so cash Drouin for a blue chip defender and a second-round pick. Spectacular return. For Montreal, they excite the fanbase and get a fantastic talent. Fun trade!

I think that Steve Yzerman is one of the best GMs in hockey. In one trade he solved a significant salary problem, a significant expansion draft problem, while shoring up a position of team weakness from a position of team strength. Mikhail Sergachev is obviously still something of an unknown quantity, and if Drouin develops into a matchup centre (right now he’s a softer minutes winger) Montreal will have done very well indeed, but that level of risk is entirely appropriate given the other problems that Tampa Bay solved in this trade.

Good deal for both. Tampa needs some good young D-men and Tampa has many skilled forwards. Montreal needs to win now and their biggest weakness is a lack of high-end skill.

I’m surprised that I find the deal so even. I like Sergachev as a prospect a lot, but he’s still just a prospect. Drouin is a pretty good young player, but I don’t think his ceiling is as high as Montreal is hoping for. If Sergachev becomes a stud and Drouin never becomes a 60-70 point player I’ll give the nod to Tampa. If Sergachev never turns into anything special then win for the Habs. I like the trade all around so far.

I’m in wait and see mode because new teammates and systems need a break-in period, but on the surface it looks like both teams are getting what they need. Drouin has skill and the Habs need more of that up front.

I think it’s ballsy and awesome! It benefits Montreal immediately but will benefit Tampa in the long run. Overall I think Tampa may have won the trade with Sergachev, but only time will tell what kind of player he turns out to be.

Cam Lewis: It was damn good work by Yzerman, as the Lightning opened up another protection slot by moving Drouin for an expansion eligible forward. It’s funny, Marc Bergevin has spoken about how important it is to acquire a good puck moving defenceman and an elite centre, but he’s used his two best chips, P.K. Subban and Sergachev, and hasn’t acquired either.

It was weird just in the sense that Montreal doesn’t have much defensive depth right now. I don’t know why Marc Bergevin hates defencemen under 30 but that appears to be the case as he moved two of his younger D out in the past week.