Monday Mailbag – Will Draisaitl’s contract be a problem?

My Nation compatriots, it’s Mailbag time again and that means that you’ve submitted your questions for our panel of geniuses wizards wonder men writers to assess and pass along a chunk of free wisdom that you’ll be able to carry with you for the rest of your lives. As always, I need questions for next week so please send any question you may have to me through email or on Twitter. For now, it’s time to learn something.

I thought there must have been a good reason. A trade option that is coming through and needs more money. Also thought for a second about a Leon Draisaitl offer sheet, but Edmonton could have matched while also retaining BP.

That it didn’t make sense. Maybe something will happen on July 1 to clear it up (I’m writing this response on Thursday) but unless that happens it certainly looks to me like the Oilers would be better off just hanging onto him for the year if they weren’t able to make a retained salary trade. Even buying him out next season would be helpful, because it would knock a year off of the buyout penalty.

A bit surprised. I don’t like the idea of two years of “dead cap space” of $1.3 million. I thought he could still help the 4^th line and in case of injuries or inconsistent play from Maroon, Lucic or Caggiula he could move up for a short time. He is a perfect example of why you’d rather over pay and give a short term than overpay on more years. If his deal was three years they could have re-signed him to a similar deal Buffalo gave him or let him walk.

No surprise and good riddance to Pouilot, who is on his way to his seventh team. Was a bad signing. And please, if you’re a Pouliot backer, don’t leave out segments or entire seasons of his tenure, in an attempt to “prove” otherwise or put him in the most favorable light possible. The Oilers paid Pouiiot $4M a year for three seasons — the signing was lauded by some as a terrific move at that dollar amount when it was made — and they got 180 games and 84 points in return. He couldn’t stay healthy. He didn’t produce enough. He didn’t live up to the contract and was BOUGHT OUT. If that’s a victory for analytics, enjoy the celebration.

My first thought was “why now?” Buying Pouliot out vs sending him to the AHL saves just $1.67 million this year but at the cost of an extra $1.33 million in 2020-2021. Considering the Oilers will need all their cap dollars in McDavid’s prime it’s tough to see why they needed they $1.67 million THIS year.

I felt it was a little premature but overall was happy to see it finally done.

I just don’t understand the timing. You’re telling me there is no one that would have taken Pouliot at 50% retained salary? You’re telling me that burying him in the minors this year and buying him out next summer, limiting the buyout penalty to two years instead of four, wasn’t an option? Katz has the money and the Oilers don’t really need the cap space this year. It’s the coming years that are a problem. I don’t know, man. The timing was weird on this one for me and I don’t even really care about Benoit Pouliot. That said, I do care about how shallow the Oilers are on the wings.

I think there is an outer marker for Leon and IMO it’s about $7.5 million. Peter Chiarelli has to build a team and if Leon and his agent want $9.8 (or some such) this may not work out on a long term deal.

I can’t speak for those people. I can say that anything in the $8.0MM+ range would be an overpay for Draisaitl based on the second contracts signed by other players with similar production.

If you look at Hall and Eberle’s production their contracts weren’t out of whack very much. The team lost, but those two weren’t the main reasons. I don’t see Draisaitl having much leverage to get more than $7.5million, although they likely will use the Kuznetsov contract will be used I’m sure. What a player agent asks for and what he gets are very different. Unless a team submits an unexpected offer sheet I see Draisaitl having a deal in the $7-$7.7 million range.

I didn’t like the rush to sign Hall, Eberle and RNH, particularly the latter two, to those contracts and I’m not comfortable talking about numbers north of $7M a season for Draisaitl after one terrific season either. Liking the player and believing he will live up to a big new contract based on a proven track record is one thing. I don’t think one regular season and one playoff run constitutes a track record.

This city is still on a euphoric high after making the playoffs for the 1st time in a decade. Seriously. Chiarelli can do no wrong. The secret master plan is working. Draisaitl is a hero for almost vanquishing the Ducks on his own. A lot of people are just soaking in those happy joy joy feelings.

Yes but unfortunately that’s the way hockey business goes. Drai was his right-hand man and has a half decent argument on his behalf. I hope he signs for six.

No, but those are different because Tambellini and MacT signed them and they’re not Peter Chiarelli. #SarcasmFont. Honestly, I think that Leon is a fantastic young player and definitely deserves to get paid but that has its limits — he’s not Connor McDavid.

If Leon really is asking for the moon then I want to know how hard Chiarelli is pushing back with a bridge deal? Draisaitl has no leverage here aside from sitting out or maybe having an offer sheet come through from another team so what’s the need to make it an eight-year extension?

I think Oilers nation fractured on June 29, 2016, and there are now two rival groups of fans, probably three if you include those who feel comfortable on either side. I think this matters only if the Oilers spent the McDavid years without winning. A Stanley Cup will heal all wounds. 

Your question starts from a different assumption than most of Chiarelli’s critics are starting from. That assumption is that Chiarelli’s moves drove those positive results. Someone more critical of the GM could point out that a lot went right for the Oilers last season. Health, for starters – the team had no significant injuries. Talbot was able to play a zillion games, and play them well, which undid the damage of the misguided Gustavsson signing. And, most important of all, the best player in the world played all 82 games. I’m not trying to write the GM out of this – his 2015 moves for Talbot and Sekera, for example, were vital to the Oilers success in 2016-17 – but just highlight that there isn’t necessarily a straight line from “the Oilers were good in 2016-17” to “the Oilers’ GM was brilliant in the summer of 2016.”

I haven’t ripped him. I think he has done fine. It is rare to see a young team coming off a 103-points season make significant moves. Chiarelli is positioning himself to evaluate his team during the season and with cap space make some moves. Time will tell if his strategy is correct, but I understand wanting to see a young team grow organically rather than make a big splash. Also, I find some people don’t want to credit the GM when the team goes well. The Larsson trade, Russell and Benning signings completely re-vamped the RD. He acquired Maroon and Kassian and Lucic, but because Lucic didn’t dominate 5×5 the signing sucks for the detractors. Longterm it might be a concern, no doubt, but last year his moves made a significant impact on the improvement of the team. Some people will never be satisfied, they will complain no matter what. I wouldn’t listen to those who only criticize or complain. You need to read and listen to those with a balanced approach. One bad move doesn’t overrule four or five good ones. No GM has a perfect record, but his moves had the team improve massively last year, so he should get credit for that. He hasn’t made many move this year and I think that is what people are concerned about. He has a clear plan, and this season we will find out if it is the right one. There is no doubt his lack of moves has left him open for criticism, but it is premature to rip him until we see if his plan to stay patient and grow internally works well or not.

Don’t agree with your premise.

Last year he took risks on Lucic and Larsson that changed the makeup of the team. This year he has done almost nothing except removed Eberle and Pouliot. With the Hall trade (which is not universally loved) you can say that the loss in skill was made up by the balance of the roster. This year the team just got worse and we’re waiting for the part that looks like more balance.

Cause that’s what Oiler fans do. We’ll never be happy.

I think it’s fair to wonder what he’s doing when every other team seems to be trying to get better while the Oilers have appeared to move away from the buffet. Last season, the Oilers made it to game 7 of the second round and lost to Anaheim which blew away most people’s expectations, but have they gotten better? Frankly, they’ve gotten worse as Strome is not as good of a player as Jordan Eberle and they haven’t brought in anyone to replace Benoit Pouliot. When you couple that with Sekera’s injury then I don’t think it’s crazy to wonder how the Oilers are supposed to get better?

Too soon to know. As I write this we haven’t reached free agency. This time next week we’ll have a better idea.

Again, I’m answering this prior to July 1, so all GM grades are tentative at this point. Right now I’m inclined to point to John Chayka in Arizona – he got a new goalie, a top centre, shed Mike Smith’s contract, added one of the best shutdown defencemen in the league. The Coyotes need to add some help in the present, lest their rebuild continues indefinitely, and they did it.

The Cup is rarely won in July, despite all the excitement. Rangers signing Shattenkirk to only four years was a great move. He is a big upgrade on Girardi. And Jeff Gorton relieved himself of a second line $6.5 million centre in Stepan. I’ll go with NYR.

I like the work Brad Treliving has done down the road in Calgary, particularly the acquisition of Travis Hamonic.

I think Nashville has done some interesting things and they seem to be right in the mix for Duchene too. So let’s call it Nashville.

I hate to say it but Calgary’s, unfortunately, impressing me a little too much right now.

I hate to say it, but it’s arguably Brad Treliving in Calgary. He’s checking off all kinds of boxes for the Flames and it’s hard to ignore the work he’s doing to that roster.

Probably best to wait and see. I don’t think we should assume higher revenue because it now divides by 31. Definitely, something to watch.

Not a lot. Vegas adds new revenue to the NHL, but also adds 23 new jobs – and the new expenses that go with them. So unless Vegas takes in revenue at a rate higher than the average NHL club, it won’t exert upward pressure on the salary cap. There’s also the matter of centralized revenue to consider (i.e. the World Cup of Hockey, TV deals in Canada and the US, etc.) but I don’t think a 31-team league is going to make a lot more money there than a 30-team league did.

They should draw well, but I haven’t looked at their ticket prices to see how much revenue they are projected to make, but I don’t see them adding a massive increase to the salary cap right away because they aren’t adding to the TV revenue. I suspect the cap will grow at about the same rate as the past few seasons.

One team won’t sway league revenues — for good or bad — much. Any gains made in one city, like Las Vegas, can be lost in another.

Yeah, the league revenues go up, but now those revenues get divided between yet another team. I think the Cap will probably not go up (substantially) until weak earners like Arizona are purged from the league. That’s the real drain. It’s not like Vegas has some massive TV market that is going to lead to a hojillion dollar TV deal.

I can only assume the cap will rise and this is exactly how I’m dealing with a huge Connor and Leon contract.

I mean, you’d hope so. You’d hope adding the 31st team to the league would increase league revenues but who’s to know for sure? They said the cap was going to be flat this season and it actually went up by just under 3%. If I’m guessing, I’d say that the cap will keep going up regardless of Vegas but maybe that’s just a pipe dream?