Monday Musings: Chiarelli overhauling Oilers
By Jason Gregor
7 years ago
Peter Chiarelli was named General Manager and President of Hockey Operations on April 24th, 2015. In just under 15 months on the job he has made significant changes to the roster and coaching staff. He hired Todd McLellan and an entire new staff, and he hasn’t been afraid to make trades.
Whether you agree or disagree with the moves he’s made, he has been true to his word about how he would re-shape the roster.
He wanted the Oilers to become bigger, stronger, more skilled and ideally more difficult to play against. It didn’t work out last year, as the Oilers skated to a 29th place finish and their 10th consecutive season out of the playoffs.
Chiarelli’s easiest decisions have come on draft day. He gladly choose Connor McDavid first overall in 2015, and he happily selected Jesse Puljuarvi fourth overall this past June.
He has made 13 trades since being named GM.
He acquired Griffin Reinhart for the 16th and 33rd picks at the 2015 draft.
He landed Cam Talbot and the 209th pick for the 57th, 79th and 184th picks in 2015.
He acquired Brad Ross and the 107th pick for Martin Marincin.
He moved the 107th pick and Travis Ewanyk for Eric Gryba.
He acquired Lauri Korpikoski for Boyd Gordon.
He traded Liam Coughlin for Anders Nilsson.
He dealt Ben Scrivens for Zack Kassian.
He traded Philip Larsen for a fifth round pick in 2017.
He moved Justin Schultz for a third round pick in 2016 (Filip Berglund).
He dealt Teddy Purcell for a third rounder in 2016 (Matthew Cairns).
He acquired a fifth rounder in 2016 (Graham McPhee) for Anders Nilsson.
He landed Patrick Maroon for Martin Gernat and a fourth rounder in 2016 (Jack Kopacka).
He acquired Adam Larsson in exchange for Taylor Hall.
On July 1st, 2015 he signed UFA Andrej Sekera to a six-year deal worth $5.5 million/season, and Mark Letestu to a three-year pact at $1.8 million/season.
This July he signed Milan Lucic to a seven-year contract with a $6 million cap hit and back up goalie Jonas Gustavsson to a one-year deal worth $800,000.
In 15 months he has drastically altered the Oilers, especially the top-nine forwards.
When he took over these were his top-nine forwards and top-six D-men:
Taylor Hall 6’1″, 200 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6’0″, 185 | Jordan Eberle 5’11”, 180 |
Benoit Pouliot 6’3″, 200 | Anton Lander 6’0″, 185 | Teddy Purcell 6’2″, 195 |
Matt Hendricks 6’0, 200 | Derek Roy 5’9″, 184 | Nail Yakupov 5’11”, 195 |
Oscar Klefbom 6’3″, 215 | Justin Schultz 6’2′, 195 |
Andrew Ference 5’11”, 182 | Mark Fayne 6’3″, 212 |
Martin Marincin 6’4″, 201 | Nikita Nikitin 6’4″, 217 |
Here are those 15 spots today:
Milan Lucic 6’3″, 233 | Connor McDavid 6’1″, 190 | Jordan Eberle 5’11”, 180 |
Benoit Pouliot 6’3″, 200 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6’0″, 189 | Nail Yakupov 5’11”, 195 |
Patrick Maroon 6’3″, 230 | Leon Draisaitl 6’1″, 215 | Jesse Puljujarvi 6’4″, 203 |
You could exchange Kassian (6’3, 217) for Puljuarvi if you wanted. And Draisaitl was in the organization prior to Chiarelli’s arrival.
Oscar Klefbom 6’3″, 215 | Adam Larsson 6’3″, 205 |
Andrej Sekera 6’0, 198 | Mark Fayne 6’3′, 212 |
Darnell Nurse 6’4″, 213 | Brandon Davidson 6’2″, 210 |
Davidson and Nurse were already in the organization prior to Chiarelli’s hiring.
I used top-nine forwards because they play the most minutes, and usually your top-six defenders play as much as your third line wingers, if not more.
Chiarelli has made the Oilers bigger, but by removing Hall they aren’t as skilled and not as fast. Nugent-Hopkins was their biggest centre when Chiarelli was hired, but now he’s the smallest of the three, despite him adding five pounds. Lucic, Maroon and Puljujarvi make the Oilers much heavier. Puljujarvi’s speed and size could be a huge benefit, but at this point it is just a could. The right side is pretty weak in proven NHL players after Jordan Eberle.
On the blueline they Oilers now average five more pounds per player, but, more importantly, this group of six is much faster and more skilled.
We can disagree with some of Chiarelli’s moves. I didn’t like the Hall trade, or the Reinhart acquisition and a year later that trade looks even worse. When he was hired Chiarelli outlined a plan and he has stuck to it. He hasn’t changed his direction. We will find out in the next few month or years if it is the right decision.
He obviously isn’t finished — they still lack an offensive right-shot defender, and the team still will be relying on many young players — but at least he’s added a few player in their mid to late 20s who can play significant minutes.
PARTING SHOTS
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Are the Oilers better? I get asked this often. It is hard to be worse. If they finish 21st-24th, I don’t consider that improvement. Sure, it is better than 29th, but it isn’t close to the playoffs and it would mean setting the NHL-record for futility: eleven consecutive seasons without a post-season appearance.
This team has to be a playoff team or miss the dance in the final week, for me to say the team improved. Had they been healthy last year, I’m sure they could have mustered four more wins and a few OT losses, so if they finish with 80-84 points this year, I don’t view that as any significant improvement.
- Only two western conference teams in the last six full NHL seasons (82GP) have made the playoffs with fewer than 95 points. Dallas had 91 in 2014, while Minnesota had 87 in 2016.
- Since they switched to two divisions (2013/2014 season) the lowest point total to make the playoffs from the Pacific division was Calgary’s 97 in 2015. We’ve never seen four Pacific division teams make the playoffs in the three seasons since the format change. The Oilers need to improve by 20 points to reach 90 and be in the playoff conversation. Interesting trade today between the Rangers and Senators. The Rangers traded Derrick Brassard and a seventh round pick in 2018 for Mika ZIbanejad and a second rounder in 2018. Brassard is six years older and has a $5 million cap hit for the next three seasons. Zibanejad has a $2.625 million cap hit, but he is an RFA at the end of the season. I’d guess his new deal is close to the same money as Brassard.
I’m a bit perplexed why the Senators traded away Zibanejad when he’s six years younger, yet their production over the past two seasons has been very close.
Brassard last two years:
46-72-118 in 160 GP
Zibanejad last two years:
41-56-97 in 161 GP
46-72-118 in 160 GP
Zibanejad last two years:
41-56-97 in 161 GP
Brassard played 17:53/game, while Zibanejad played 17:45. Their PP minutes were basically the same, but Zibanejad played 1:25/game on PK. The main difference was the D-men they played with at EV.
Over the past two years Zibanejad’s main linemates were Bobby Ryan and Mike Hoffman, while Brassard played with Mats Zuccarello and Rick Nash. Zibanejad played 959 EV minutes with Erik Karlsson with and had a GF of 2.81 and CF% of 51.8%. Brassard played 813 EV minutes with Dan Girardi and produced a 2.80 GF and a CF% of 47.3%. Brassard did play 747 minutes with Ryan McDonagh and had 3.85 GF and 49.2 CF%.
These stats don’t tell the entire story, but the Senators must feel Brassard will be able to produce even more playing with Hoffman/Ryan and Karlsson than the younger Zibanejad, and possibly those three made Zibanejad look better. It will be interesting to see how they play, but giving up a player six years younger for one who hasn’t produced that much more to date is surprising to me.
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