The Oilers will attempt to kick off a historic comeback when they host the Florida Panthers in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final in Edmonton on Thursday.
Teams that lead a best-of-7 series 2-0 have a series record of 352-56 (.863) all time and only five out of 54 teams have overcome a 2-0 deficit to win the Stanley Cup. Seven teams have taken a 2-0 series lead in the Cup Final since 2012 and all have gone on to win the Stanley Cup. However, the Oilers have a lot in common with one of the last teams to accomplish the feat, the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins.
This article breaks down the Oilers’ chances, from a betting perspective, using odds and trends.

Panthers vs. Edmonton Game 3 Odds

  • Florida Panthers Moneyline Odds: +115
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -135
  • Puck Line Odds: Panthers +1.5 (-250), Oilers -1.5 (+200)
  • Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -105, under -115)

Stanley Cup Final Odds

The Panthers are now listed as -550 series favourites following their 4-1 win in Game 2, while Edmonton’s Stanley Cup odds are sitting at 4/1, implying a 20 percent chance. According to the odds, Florida winning in five games is the most likely result at +240 odds. Alternatively, the least likely outcome, based on the odds, is that Edmonton will win the next four games and take the series in six games.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Game 3 of the Cup Final.

Handicapping the Oilers (13-7 SU, 7-13 ATS, 9-11 O/U)

Edmonton has scored at least two goals in all but three games this season, including nine home games this postseason. The Oilers have averaged four goals per game at Rogers Place this season, compared to just 2.55 on the road. However, it’s never taken this long for Edmonton’s stars to shine.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman. Connor McDavid (13) and Leon Draisaitl (11) are the only two forwards who have produced double-digit shot attempts through two games. Edmonton’s forwards have generated a total of 55 shot attempts, which is down from 76 in round two and 89 in round three. To make matters worse, Evander Kane is questionable heading into Game 3. Kane has generated more shot attempts up to this point than any forward not named McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hyman, this postseason but he has not yet attempted a shot in the Cup Final.
Meanwhile, Edmonton’s defenseman have attempted 62 shot attempts, which is up from 43 in round two, and 59 in round three. Evan Bouchard (16) and Mattias Ekholm (10) led the team in shot attempts in Game 1. In Game 2, it was Bouchard (9) again, with Brett Kulak (8) not far behind. According to Natural Stat Trick, only six of those shot attempts were classified as scoring chances, and only one was considered a high-danger chance.
Florida hasn’t looked all that threatening at 5-on-5, generating just 10 high-danger chances. However, while Edmonton holds a 19-16 edge in high-danger chances so far in the series, 18 of those chances were generated in Game 1.

Handicapping the Panthers(13-6 SU, 9-10 ATS, 7-12 O/U)

The Panthers have been a moneyline favourite in 18 of 19 games this postseason. Game 3 will mark the first time that the Panthers are priced lower than -105.
Florida is one of only three teams to hold the Oilers to one or fewer goals at Rogers Place this season, which is no accident. The Panthers allowed fewer goals than all but one team in the regular season. It’s also no coincidence that they have held Edmonton to just one goal in two games. Florida has limited opponents to two or fewer goals in 15 out of 19 games this postseason.
Of course, a large portion of the credit goes to goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who is now the favourite (-200) to win the Conn Smythe Trophy after his masterful performance in Game 1. However, Aleksander Barkov has also been a big part of the Panthers’ defensive prowess and his status is currently up in the air following an injury.
Barkov missed the final 9:28 of Game 2 after an elbow to the jaw from Draisaitl. The Panthers’ captain has been on the ice with the team since then, but head coach Paul Marice would not confirm whether or not he will play. Barkov is tied with Matthew Tkachuk for the scoring lead with 19 points, so his presence will be missed on both sides of the puck if he’s not cleared to play.
The Oilers entered Game 1 as a +120 underdog. Despite their loss, their strong performance earned them support from bettors, closing at +105 on the moneyline for Game 2. This trend has continued into Game 3, with Edmonton now listed as a -135 favourite after opening at -125 odds. However, it would not be surprising to see the odds shift toward Florida if Barkov plays.
The Panthers took off late to Edmonton due to their charter flight being delayed by a severe storm in Florida. The team was initially supposed to take off at 1 p.m. ET, but they were stuck on the tarmac for four hours.

Team Betting Trends

  • The home team is 39-44 (.470) this postseason. Edmonton has gone 6-3 straight up at Rogers Place in the playoffs, while Florida has gone 6-2 as the home team.
  • Florida’s comeback win was the 40th overall in these playoffs, the most through 83 games in a single postseason. It was also the seventh time the Panthers came from behind to win a game in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Edmonton has now lost five games after holding a lead.
  • Out of the 83 games in this postseason, 50 of them have been decided by one goal. However, it jumps to 72 out of 83 if we include games in which an empty-net goal was tacked on.
  • Since 2021, the total in Games 1-4 are 60-47-2 (55 percent) to the over, compared to 38-15-2 (69.1 percent) to the under in Games 5-7.

Player Prop Betting Trends

  • Leon Draisaitl doesn’t have a point in the series but he has scored a point in eight of nine games at Rogers Place in these playoffs.
  • Connor McDavid has averaged 25 minutes or more in each of the first two games versus Florida and he has one assist and nine shots on goal for his troubles. McDavid entered the Cup Final having scored three goals and 11 assists in the 10 games prior. He’s gone over 3.5 shots in five out his last 10 games, including once this series.
  • Mattthew Tkachuk hasn’t scored in seven games and he hasn’t registered a point in his last four games. Tkachuk has two goals in his last 16 games.
  • Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe lead the Panthers with goals (4) and points (8) over the past 10 games.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

  • Draisaitl has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in seven out of nine home games this postseason. He’s listed at -135 at Sports Interaction to go over that total Game 3. However, if you shop around, you can find much better odds (-125) on Draisaitl to register at least three shots on goal at NorthStar Bets.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has registered six shots in two games and ranks fourth on the team in expected goals per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey. He didn’t have a shot in Game 2, but he had chances. Sports Interaction has the best odds (+380) on Nugent-Hopkins to score a goal.