Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and New Jersey Devils.
Oilers vs. Devils Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -140
- New Jersey Devils Moneyline: +127
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+181), Devils +1.5 (-208)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -111, Under -101)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (37-27 SU, 23-41 ATS, 29-34-1 O/U)
Edmonton’s effort in Buffalo on Monday was lousy, especially compared to its solid performance against Dallas. The Oilers barely controlled play against the Sabres, managing just 51 percent of expected goals and shot attempts at even strength. With only 18 games left, that’s not the kind of performance you want from a Stanley Cup contender—but it’s been the norm.
Since Feb. 1, Edmonton has controlled just 49.4 percent of expected goals and 51.9 percent of shot attempts at five-on-five, going 5-8-0 as a result, per Evolving Hockey. The Oilers have been average offensively in all situations, and no team has allowed more goals per 60 minutes in that span. While they still rank in the top 10 in shots, they sit just outside the bottom 10 in shots against.
It’s been tough to justify betting on Edmonton, given that they’re priced like the league’s best team most nights but don’t play like it. On Thursday, they’ll be a moneyline favorite for the 56th time this season, but if you had bet on them in the previous 55 instances, you’d be down almost eight units. They’ve also won just 12 of 24 road games as the favorite.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are doing all they can to keep the Oilers afloat, but after 64 games, it’s clear this team is missing key ingredients to be considered elite. As long as they continue to be priced like one, I’ll be putting my money on their top stars’ individual success rather than betting on the team to win.
Handicapping the Devils (35-31 SU, 28-38 ATS, 24-40-2 O/U)
New Jersey has won back-to-back games for the first time since late December as it fights to hold onto third place in the Metropolitan Division. The Devils trail Carolina by six points but lead Columbus by the same margin after defeating the Blue Jackets 5-3 on Tuesday.
The past two months have been rough for New Jersey. After starting 24-11-3, the Devils have gone 12-14-3 since Dec. 27. Injuries have only added to their struggles, with star forward Jack Hughes out for the season following shoulder surgery, sidelining him until 2025-26. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton is also week-to-week, while Jonas Siegenthaler will miss the rest of the regular season and may not return unless the Devils make a deep playoff run—an increasingly unlikely scenario.
Not only is New Jersey without its top player, but the team hasn’t looked like a contender. Since Jan. 1, the Devils rank 22nd in five-on-five expected goals percentage, according to Evolving Hockey, and only six teams have scored fewer goals per 60 minutes. They also rank 17th in shot attempts and 25th in expected goals—hardly the offensive output of a playoff threat.
Defensively, the Devils appear strong on the surface, but much of that is due to goaltending. Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen have combined to save nearly 25 goals above expected this season, masking New Jersey’s mediocre defensive metrics. Since Jan. 1, the Devils rank 16th in shot attempts against and 21st in expected goals against at five-on-five.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Devils
Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-135) at Pinnacle
Whether it’s scoring goals or picking up assists, bettors have been able to count on Draisaitl to come through in most games. Draisaitl also leads the Oilers in shots on goal this season, registering 24 more than the next-best player, Evan Bouchard. At first glance, -135 might not seem like an attractive price, but when you consider that the 29-year-old has registered three or more shots in 42 of 64 games this season, and 20 of 27 games since Jan. 1, it’s a bargain. Other sportsbooks have this prop listed at -155 odds.
