The Edmonton Oilers are a good team playing poorly.

They’ve struggled since blowing a 2-0 lead to Detroit and losing 3-2 in a shootout. They’ve only won five of their last 14 games to drop five points behind Vegas for first place in the Pacific Division, and the LA Kings are suddenly one point back of the Oilers with a game in hand.

The Oilers need to snap out of this funk, or they might not have home-ice advantage for any round in the playoffs.

The team played quite well against Montreal and Dallas last week and many thought their funk was over, but they beat themselves yet again this past Monday in Buffalo. Puck management, or a lack thereof, cost them the game. They had 20 turnovers at 5×5, well above their season average of 13.3, and a costly turnover by Vasily Podkolzin led to Tage Thompson’s game-winning goal in the third period.

Edmonton ranks 18th in giveaways/60 at 5×5 this year, which is an improvement from the past three seasons when they ranked 26th (2022), 29th (2023) and 30th (2024). During this funk, puck management has been an issue as the Oilers rank 24th in giveaways/60 since January 30th. They need to reduce their giveaways, especially ones at the offensive blue line that lead to rush chances the other way.

The most common goals against in the NHL come off the rush, and the Oilers’ rush defence has stunk since January 1st.

Edmonton ranks 30th in odd-man rush chances against 5×5 and they are 25th in high-danger chances against off the rush. And their penalty kill also ranks 25th in high danger chances since January 1st (stats via Clear Sight Analytics). You can want the goalies to make a few more saves, sure, but if Edmonton continues to be this porous defensively, then they will continue to give up too many goals. It isn’t just on the goalie.

They are giving up too much, but they are also struggling to capitalize on their chances.

In their last 14 games, the Oilers have scored 23 goals 5×5. Their expected goals for are 32. They are -9.8 in goals scored below expected. In that same span, they are -5.5 in goals saved above expected. The lack of finish is becoming a bigger problem. On the season Edmonton is -17 in goals scored below expected, but 9.8 of those have come in the last 14 games. In their first 50 games they were -7.2. So, 57% of their goals below expected have occurred in the last 21.4% of their season. Not a good equation.

Edmonton’s inability to finish at 5×5 has been a problem all season. They rank 26th in goals below expected. Only Nashville (-33.6), Pittsburgh (-26.2), Carolina (-22.4), Calgary (-20.4) and Detroit (-17.7) have been worse. Edmonton was fourth in the NHL in GF at 5×5 through their first 50 games, but they are 26th in their last 14. The struggle is real, and they need to snap out of it. Some top players like Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (one 5×5 goal), Zach Hyman (2) need to produce more, but so do depth players as the Oilers only have five skaters with two goals or more since January 30th.

Puck management consists of accurate passing, limiting turnovers, burying good scoring chances and also shooting, instead of over passing, when you are in a good spot. All four areas have been lacking for the Oilers, as well as their defensive game and goaltending.

The Oilers need to sharpen up every facet of their game. Right now.

— The one area that is excelling is the power play. Edmonton is 45.5% in its last five games (5-for-11), 34.3% (12-of-35) during this 14-game struggle and 32.3% (20-for-62) since January 1st. The PP is great, but the only negative is the Oilers don’t draw enough penalties. They rank 27th all season at 2.47, and in their last five games they are at 2.20. The PP doesn’t seem to be as effective, because they aren’t scoring as many goals, but that is misleading. It is still very good, and has gotten better all season, they just don’t get enough opportunities to take advantage of their biggest weapon.

— A lack of extended zone time is an issue. Edmonton hasn’t been able to extend shifts in the offensive zone, which increases the chances of the defending team taking a penalty. Some will suggest the lack of team speed is a factor, and it might be, but Corey Perry, arguably their slowest forward, has drawn the third-most minor penalties this season with 18. He’s at 1.73/60 while last season Warren Foegele drew 20 (1.05/60) Ryan McLeod drew 11 penalties (0.57/60) while Jeff Skinner has drawn nine (0.80/60) thus far.

The biggest reduction in drawn penalties has been McDavid. He’s drawn 21 (0.98/60) this season after drawing 41 (1.52/60) last year. And Derek Ryan drew 18 (1.51/60) last year but only drew two (0.39/60) in 33 games before being sent to Bakersfield. Leon Draisaitl has drawn more though. He’s already drawn 25 (1.09/60) after only drawing 20 (0.72/60) last year. McDavid has the puck the most, and his reduction plays a large factor, but I think it is more the team’s inability to maintain extended zone time.

However, last year the Oilers ranked 20th in PP opportunities/game at 2.96. This season they are 27th in at 2.47, but PPO are down across the NHL. Edmonton was 20th last year at 2.96, while this season Montreal ranks seventh and they are at 2.91. Last year the NHL averaged 3.02 PPO/game, while this season it is 2.73/game. That is the lowest in NHL history since it was tracked in 1964. We could have an entire discussion on why penalties are down.

The last 11 seasons have produced the 11 lowest PPO/game in NHL history. The game is faster than ever, but we are seeing fewer penalties. It would require a deep dive, but I’m not sold players are that much more disciplined. I think refs just call fewer infractions.

— The Devils have been ravaged by injuries lately. Jack Hughes crashed into the end boards in Vegas on March 2nd. He is done for the year after needing shoulder surgery. Dougie Hamilton got injured in their next game in Dallas on March 4th after a collision with Mason Marchment. He is done for the regular season, and his status for the playoffs is unknown. They also lost Jonas Siegenthaler for the rest of the regular season on February 2nd. In a span of nine games, they lost their leading scorer and two of their top four defenders. Ouch.

— The Devils still have Brett Pesce (21:02/game), Luke Hughes (20:40), Johnathan Kovacevic (19:45) and Brenden Dillon (18:30) as well as newly acquired Brian Dumoulin on the back end. But Pesce and Hughes are now playing over 23 and 22:30/game respectively with Hamilton out. Dillon is also playing 90 seconds more per game while Kovacevic is up one minute more. It might not sound like a lot now, but the longer it goes, when players are asked to log more minutes than they are used to, it can take a toll.

— The Devils will miss Hamilton the most in the offensive zone. He’s been on the ice for 97 goals for at 5×5. Dillon is second at 61 followed by Hughes and Kovacevic at 47. That is a massive drop off without Hamilton. He played 60% of his time with Dillon and 54% of the time with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. Luke Hughes will now play much more with the Devils’ top line.

— In three games without Hamilton, Hughes has produced three points and been on the ice for three goals for. He’s been on for 2.67 GF/60, while Hamilton was on for 4.67/60. Hughes has big skates to fill.

Mattias Janmark missed practice due to illness yesterday and will be a game-time decision. I see no reason to rush him into the lineup. He’s been sick and not very productive. I’d play Kasperi Kapanen instead. While Jak Walman is listed with Bouchard, he played just over half of his minutes with Darnell Nurse, while Evan Bouchard split his time with Walman and Kulak. We likely will see something similar tonight.

Stuart Skinner will start his fourth-consecutive game. This is the first time all season he’s started four in a row. He had one bad rebound control play, where he went to corral the puck with his stick and missed it, but the other 179 minutes I thought he was quite good. He’ll play tonight then get tomorrow off v. the Islanders.

I give GM Tom Fitzgerald credit: When he lost three key players in a span of nine games, he didn’t throw up the white flag. Instead, he acquired Brian Dumoulin, Dennis Cholowoski and Cody Glass. Giving up a second for Dumoulin looks like a lot, but it is the Jets’ second rounder and likely between pick #57-64. It could hurt them, down the road, but Fitzgerald clearly believes in his team and is hopeful one, or both, of Hamilton and Siegenthaler will be back for the playoffs.

The Devils will likely play Carolina in the first round, and the Hurricanes are a much weaker team now without Mikko Rantanen. New Jersey has won one playoff round the past 12 seasons. Fitzgerald clearly wants his players to get some post-season experience, and success. They’ve only made the playoffs twice in the past 12 seasons. They need some postseason experience.

Glass has had a great first two games with the Devils producing 1-2-3. He’s slotted in beside Jesper Bratt and will be given an opportunity to play more of an offensive role. Vegas chose him sixth overall in the 2017 draft. He was touted as an offensive player, but that hasn’t transpired in the NHL, although he’s never been in an offensive role very much. This season in Pittsburgh he played behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. He’s likely not a second line centre long term, but so far, he’s given them an offensive boost.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Last year, Edmonton started its 16-game winning streak in New Jersey with a 6-3 victory. The Oilers won’t go on another 16-game heater right now, but they do win tonight — 5-3.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl extends his point streak to 16 games.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl picks up three points and reaches the 100-point mark for the sixth time in his career and for the fourth-consecutive season.