Monday Mailbag – Chiarelli’s summer to-do list

Nation compatriots, it’s that time of the week where we all gather round cross-legged on the floor and learn a little something about hockey and about life. As always, I’ve passed along your Oilers-related questions (sometimes not) to our panel of wise men and waited for them send nuggets of brilliance back my way. It was a busy week in Oilers land so this edition of the mailbag could get spicy. If you have a question for the mailbag, you can email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Enjoy.

Not surprised, and I think his leash should be incredibly short. When Nicholson spoke of the plan, he mentioned drafting, and yes they have been better there, and players are trending. Ethan Bear, fifth rounder in 2015, has already played so that is a step in right direction, but that shouldn’t excuse losing big time trades. Why can’t they be good at scouting and make solid deals? I understand you won’t win every trade, but losing one as horrifically as Chiarelli and his scouts did on Reinhart is hard to overcome. If the Oilers are a middle of the road team by January, I don’t let Chiarelli make deals at the trade deadline. I would move him out before then.

I can’t say I was surprised. Not because Chiarelli did a terrific job, but because 2017-18 was a season in which virtually everyone not named Connor McDavid had a season to forget compared to 2016-17 and that makes evaluating one component — the GM — of the team difficult. That doesn’t give him a free pass, but it was a factor. Chiarelli should be on a short leash, but he shouldn’t be alone in that.

My first thought was that Bob Nicholson is a charlatan and a grifter who is refusing to take responsibility and stewardship of the Oilers. Katz should fire him, hang up, and fire Chiarelli 30 seconds later.

Not surprising. The Oilers value continuity right now given the fact they’ve burned through like 10 coaches and general managers in the past decade so, for better or worse, they’re sticking with this guy. I’m guessing the leash is pretty short. He inherited an obscene amount of assets and he’s pissed through a lot of them very quickly. It’s worrying to think what kind of nonsense he’ll pull when he’s desperate and I think (hope?) that ownership isn’t going to let us find out.

Unsurprised. They’d have plenty of reason to fire him but I didn’t think they’d do it. Very short. A bad start next season and he’s gone.

I think if he screws up ANOTHER year then he’s definitely at risk at losing his job, so yes I think he has a shorter leash than normal. I would love to see someone else sitting in the GM chair right now but honestly I’m buying into the concept of you know, not changing the General Manager every two years?

I was disappointed but not at all surprised. I think missing the playoffs in two of the three years you’ve been GM should have been enough to get the boot but that’s not what happened so we must move on. As for how much leash he has, I really couldn’t tell you. Like I said, I thought he did enough to get himself fired but the Oilers don’t seem to think that way. What can you do?

Same as I’ve been writing for the past three months. Jim Johnson and Ian Herbers are out, and I’d also not renew Jay Woodcroft contract. They will hire a new AHL coach as well.

I think Jim Johnson is definitely out and it’s more than likely at least two of the three assistants get sacked. It’ll be framed as McLellan’s call but my guess is it’ll come from Chiarelli or higher. Every indication is the Oilers will make a change in the AHL. I think the Oilers will make a pitch for Manny Viveiros from Swift Current. I think the offer to Viveiros, at the very least, will be for him to be the head man in Bakersfield but I wonder if they might look at him as an assistant here. Would he even want that?

Jim Johnson will get sacrificed. Jay Woodcroft will skate because Oilers. My guess is this team will make those actually responsible for the issues to take as little accountability as possible.

I would guess they keep Todd and some of the assistants get axed. Paul Coffey will probably step in, because Oilers. Meh.

Assistant coaching changes. It’s a weak move to me. Lacks meaningful change.

I truly think Todd will stay to man the ship. The assistant coaches around him however I think are on their way out. Maybe not all of them, but something definitely needs to change on that bench.

I wrote about it the other day, but I think Jim Johnson is going to get the boot. I’ve heard from a source that Johnson wasn’t overly popular with the players and that his personality wasn’t necessarily a fit with the group. Fair or not, that’s my bet.

Stop losing downgrading in talent, and have a proper succession plan. Don’t have $6 million in free cap space hoping to use it at the trade deadline. Have a good enough roster so when the trade deadline comes your team is in the playoffs, not floundering in 25^th place.

No more trades where you give up more talent than you get in the name of filling a positional deficit. Do not go into the season counting on Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto as top six forwards or on Ethan Bear to be the RHD answer on the blueline for the power play.

Gain some hockey sense, remove his head from his rectum, and go against every natural instinct he ever feels.

Build a time machine.

Resign.

Last offseason he made moves that left us “hoping” that things would work out and people would perform out of their minds like they did last year. I hope he makes some solid moves that won’t leave us counting on Lucic scoring 30 goals, or Ryan Strome having a career year with 70 points, when they’re not the type of players to do that.

Don’t make any trades? Mostly because his track record of losing deals would probably make this team worse again. Let someone else do this job? I don’t know.

I don’t buy the theory he needs to be pushed? Who pushed him last year when he started 70 games? He just needs to play better. If you want a better backup, in case he struggles, that is fine, but I’m not getting someone to “push” Talbot, because if they think he needs to be pushed, which I don’t, then he isn’t that motivated. The Oilers have a proven track record of making incorrect evaluations on player’s characters. Maybe the organization should just evaluate them on skill and production.

Chiarelli doesn’t need  goaltender to push Talbot. Talbot had a bad first half to the season, nothing more than that. Talbot’s career tells me he’s better than what we saw early.

There are a few options out there as FAs but it’s early in spring and a lot may still be re-signed by their clubs. The backup has to be a decent bet to support Talbot but Edm cannot spend big money on their 2G. It’s a non-answer, I guess, but the team may need to gamble on Talbot again vs focusing on their backup.

He didn’t need to be pushed in 2016-17 when he played 70 games. Why does he suddenly need to be pushed now? He had a bad year, as did most of the team. It’s fair to bet on a bounce back from Talbot as he’s never really been bad in his NHL career. That said, I can get on board with a better backup than Al Montoya, though the goalie market isn’t all too inspiring.

A younger backup that could challenge for the starters role or older guy with a good track record. Maybe Jaroslav Halak has something left or one of the Leafs’ stellar AHL goalies. Montoya is absolutely not that guy.

I never really thought of the goalie coach as the issue behind the goalie problems in Edmonton… honestly I’ve always liked Schwartz and really wouldn’t consider getting rid of him until we see how Talbot performs this season.

How sad is it that we’re talking about finding a backup that can push Talbot when Chiarelli went out and spent assets on acquiring Montoya when he could have had better goaltenders for free through the waiver wire. It’s maddening.

Evan Bouchard. He is a right shot D-man with great offensive potential. Also Bode Wilde, another right shot D who moves the puck well.

Trading the pick…Here are recent trades involving a pick in that range…

2011: Columbus trades #8, Jakub Voracek and a 3^rd rounder to Philly for Jeff Carter.
2012: Carolina trades #8, Brian Dumoulin and Brandon Sutter for Jordan Staal.
2013: New Jersey trades #9 to Vancouver for Cory Schneider
2017: Arizona trades #7 and DeAngelo Esposito to Rangers for Antti Raanta and Derek Stepan.

New Jersey and Arizona won the deals by getting good goalies. Carolina and Columbus lost the deals. Right now I’m more confident in Oilers making a good pick than I am making them making a good trade. So I’d keep the pick.

If they are in that 9-12 range, they’ll have an opportunity to draft a right-shot D-man — there are five or six who could go in the first round. Ryan Merkley isn’t big, but he had 67 points with Guelph this season. As for trading the pick, you listen, but it’s tough to say without knowing if the Oilers believe they can get a player they are really hot for 9-12.

I think Chiarelli will sacrifice the pick for immediate help BUT let’s see the lottery play out first.

Hopefully they keep the pick. I mean, trading it could work, but Chiarelli doesn’t exactly win trades, so that’s probably off the table. The last thing we need is another Griffin Reinhart situation.

There are a lot of highly-skilled defenceman in that range. I’ve read Ty Smith, Quinton Hughes, and Evan Bouchard could all be there.

I would LOVE to see us trade up for a higher pick but can we trust Chia to do that successfully without losing the trade? Likely not. The draft appears very deep this year so if we drafted like normal in the 9-12 slot I think we’d end up with a solid prospect, whoever that shall be.

I wrote about the Draft Lottery odds last week and included some of the most common names that are ranked within that range. Personally, I’d be interested in right-shooting defenceman, Noah Dobson, that has some size (6’3″) and can also put the puck in the net. Last season he had 69 points (17G, 52A) in 67 games. Admittedly, I don’t know much about this year’s draft so this is just me guessing based on things that I’ve read. I don’t know if trading the pick is the right move with an expansion draft coming up.

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