Oilersnation Betway Bets of the Day — How I’m betting on the Stanley Cup Finals

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Welcome back to another edition of the Betway Bets of the Day. All bets are for one unit unless otherwise noted.

Our first bet of the day will be taking the Florida Panthers to win the Stanley Cup. These odds sit at +110.

The Stanley Cup Finals are here, and boy — are we in for a treat.

As I detailed in a roundtable this morning, I’m backing the Cats to win the cup. Both of these teams are riding big-time PDO heaters into the finals and no matter who wins, I’m really curious to see who comes down to earth in this series. At 5×5 in the playoffs, the Golden Knights have a 106.3 PDO while the Panthers sit at a more respectable 102.2. In the playoffs, Vegas has scored 12.51 more 5×5 goals than expected, while the Panthers have 5.47 more expected goals than actual goals.

I think Vegas is the team due for regression, so that’s part of the reason why we’re backing the underdog Panthers here. On top of that, I’ve bet on Florida to win every series so far in the playoffs and they haven’t let me down yet.

Our second bet of the day will be taking Sergei Bobrovsky to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. These odds sit at +200.

Bobrovsky is the odds-on-favourite to win the trophy this year and for good reason. After a suspect regular season that saw him go 24-20-3 with a .901 save percentage and 3.07 GAA, he’s hit another level in the playoffs with his save percentage climbing to .935, and his GAA dropping to 2.21. He’s also made a staggering 33.6 saves per game in the playoffs and looks like he’s at the top of his game.

Simply put: if he wasn’t in net for the Panthers, they wouldn’t be in the finals.

Our third bet of the day will be taking Matthew Tkachuk to take over 3.5 shots on goal in game one. These odds sit at +105.

I’ll take plus money odds on this shot prop all day. In the regular season, Tkachuk averaged 4.08 shots on goal per game but that number has dipped to an even 3 in the playoffs. Even still, he’s cashed this prop in three of his last five playoff games, and against Toronto and Carolina, he cashed in five of nine games.

Last 30: 8-15 (-5.63u)
Last 7: 1-1 (+0.05)