Old Man Power

Awhile back, during the 2010-2011 season to be exact, and in a past writing life, I had said that what the Oilers needed, desperately, was some Sam Elliot kind of leadership.

Lowetide likes to mention Stan Weir playing with another group of kids that came through town once upon a time. I can’t, wouldn’t, argue with that. If Tambellini could find a Weir today and add him to this group, I’d cheer from the rooftops. Watching Ryan Smyth step in to a shoving match last season on behalf of Taylor Hall made me think maybe he’s the closest thing we have right now.

Recently, I decided to take a look into the veteran presence and ability on the Oilers. I’ll be completely honest that this had originally sprung from a debate over at FlamesNation regarding the relative merits of the veterans for the Oilers and Flames relative to the rookies.

I’ve already had a look at the Flames situation and, to put it succinctly, the core is entering the age of performance decline, struggling to keep their heads above water, and unlikely to improve sufficiently to turn back the tide. The club is heavily leveraged in favour of veterans, with their rookie presence being predominantly limited to marginal or complimentary players, outside of Sven Baertschi. Were the club actively pursuing a youth movement wherein a core of young players expected to evolve into a new core group were being sheltered by the graybeards, then it would be understandable. They aren’t and it isn’t.

Now, about the Oilers. For veterans, I included players who have managed more than 200 NHL games and are returning to the team this season. I took a look at their numbers, putting an emphasis on Relative Corsi, which ranks them thus: p>

Some things stand out to me in this ranking, mostly that players like Hemsky, Horcoff and Smyth were fed to the proverbial wolves and that they suffered for it. Comparing their Corsi Rel QoC and GF/60 and GA/60, I think we can see that Horcoff is well past being any kind of offensive catalyst, while Hemsky looks to have still been adapting to a his shoulder recovery. Smyth’s numbers would indicate that there is still some scoring savvy in the old winger, although that could be an illusion from his quick start to the season. Suffice to say that, Edmonton’s first line from the 2006 cup run is well and truly buried down the rotation to make room for the young kids, and, as they like to say on the internet, facing the toughs.

The good news there is that they don’t need to be phenomenal. The team last season, and perhaps even more so this season, can afford for these three, or Smyth and Horcoff at least, to be fed to the meat grinder of tough opponents for the time being. Ralph Krueger, when other options are denied due to line changes or injury, has a line that can skate the puck away from the net, keep their heads against some of the brighter NHL lights, and limit the damage that will inevitably be dealt.

If we subtract an eight-point night from Sam Gagner’s point totals he is just a break-even forward on that list, and appears to have the highest shooting % of the group. Gagner is at this time, I believe, a player who benefits from better linemates more than being one who necessarily makes his linemates better. This isn’t an article on his value or comparables, but rather, I think in his case we could make the argument that his play may begin to improve as a result of being sheltered behind a stellar first line and being gifted with wingers like Hemsky and Yakupov. He hardly counts as a grizzled veteran, based on birth certificates, but his NHL CV is already long and it is a positive that his numbers have him high on this chart while still being in his early 20s. However, the 2nd line center position may become a dominant area of concern for this team in two years’ time.

Eric Belanger and Ryan Jones are the insurance policies in this regard. Last season Anton Lander was stubbornly held in the NHL when it was apparent that he didn’t belong. If Horcoff needs a break, this season he can have it, because I think the coaching staff has decided that Eric Belanger can be outstanding at imposing the infamous Belanger-Triangle that stifles offense, and turning it against the opponent. Belanger struggled offensively last season, but his zone starts and finishes showed positive results, and of the veterans who played an average of 10 minutes of ice time or more, he had the fewest goals against. If Belanger is your 4^th line center, things are going in the right direction.

Defensively, the Oilers have been gifted with some developments that were question marks for the team during the early days of their rebuild. The development of Jeff Petry and the inclusion of Justin Schultz has jump-started the development of their blueline and pre-empted the possible need of dealing a forward for help on the back end.

Last season the defensive corps was rescued by the emergence of Ladislav Smid and Jeff Petry, the former appearing on the above veteran list. In fact, of the blueliners listed, Smid was the only defenseman to noticeably improve the zone start for his teammates until the inclusion of Nick Schultz. He and Sutton were the only two to be on the ice for a positive goal differential. Based on his gradual development over time, it appears that Smid, perhaps along with Petry and Schultz the Younger, is to be one of the cornerstones of the new defensive group. Vindication for the player who was a key piece of the Pronger deal.

Peckham and Whitney are the outsiders on this list (putting aside Andy Sutton, due to injury) as either one, or perhaps even both, could be headed out this season. Peckham needs to become what Sutton used to be in order to have a long NHL career. It is very likely that he could be lost to waivers in the coming months. If not, his stock isn’t likely to ever be higher than at this year’s trade deadline and the position of the Oilers at that time may preclude the option of trading him for a depth draft pick. Whitney needs time to come around after two horrific years. He has traits that this roster will come to need, in experience, character, and a burning desire to win. Whether those traits outweigh his diminished play, of late, and nagging concerns over injury is up to management. It is very likely that the Oilers may evaluate their defensive prospects at the end of the season, and based on their progression, choose to let Whitney walk as an unrestricted free-agent. While I despise losing assets of value for nothing in return, Whitney has been a good soldier and his career is in real need of a jumpstart. He’d look pretty good in Detroit red.

The consequence being that the blueline next season may look even younger than this year, as players like Colten Teubert and Oscar Klefbom are expected to make a push for roster spots. In that event, Smid, Petry, and Schultz the Elder will be the grizzled veterans showing the new players the ropes.

Essentially, the Oilers have a collection of veterans who are in their waning days but whose defensive game is sufficient to take the brunt of an opponent’s counter-attack and keep the team afloat. So long as they are not being relied upon for complementary offense, or to shut the door defensively, the roster appears to be moving closer to the range of balance. If the younger players around whom the offense is built struggle, it is unlikely that the veterans are going to be able to dig them out. But given that this roster is currently entering year four of a five-to-six year rebuilding plan, I would say that it is more or less on schedule, and the assets in play are being utilized, more or less, as their skills would dictate.

I still wish we had Sam Elliot on the roster somewhere.