Once You Trade Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, He’s No Longer On Your Team

One of my all-time favourite sports quotes was actually coined by a current Edmonton Oilers employee, and it went something to the effect of “people realize that once you trade Evgeni Malkin, you no longer have Evgeni Malkin on your team, right?” It’s obviously an overly simplified point, but that’s by design. It’s one that’s worth remembering in moments such as these. 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is no Malkin, but he is the type of asset that a team should worry about parting ways with willingly. Should the Oilers pull the trigger on a trade involving him, he’ll no longer be on their team. That’s a problem. 

It’s worth dropping a disclaimer here that all of these rumours are purely speculation or hearsay at this point. But typically where there’s smoke there’s fire, and the frequency and fervor with which things have been coming out recently suggests that the Oilers are at the very least mulling over making a splash trade. Ryan Rishaug, who’s proven to be a reliable source on these matters, stoked the fire today on Twitter:

The collective opinion on Nugent-Hopkins as a player turned dramatically at some point, I just can’t quite pinpoint when. Or why. Sentiments such as these imply that he’s a reason for the Oilers inability to get out of the NHL’s cellar. After a quick scan of the team’s depth chart I can assure you that the amount of skill they currently possess isn’t an issue, unless of course you’re going the other way and suggesting that they don’t have enough of it. That holds some water. As for the ‘soft’ part of the equation, it’s such a tired and lazy delusion at this point that it’s honestly not even worth spilling digital ink over. 

While it’s easy to blame the top end of the roster for what’s quickly shaping up to be another disappointing season, I’m not quite sure what more people can expect from Nugent-Hopkins at this point within reason. By every objective measure, he’s progressing towards beyond the upper echelon pivot the Oilers drafted him to be. He’s quickly developed into a workhorse, consistently eating the most difficult minutes against the best the opposition has to offer. Since ’05, only 13 players have had a season in which they averaged at least 15 minutes of 5-on-5 time before their 23rd birthday: Derek Stepan, Bryan Little, Ryan O’Reilly, Jamie Benn, Evander Kane, Bobby Ryan, Alex Ovechkin, Phil Kessel, Patrick Kane, John Tavares, Steven Stamkos, Taylor Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins (who’s currently well on his way to making it onto the list for a second time). 

More importantly, he’s been productive in that time. He’s 51st in the league since his first legitimately full NHL season back in 2013, despite not had the benefit of playing with a defenceman that could make life easier for him by effectively getting him the puck on anything resembling a regular basis. He’s on pace for his fourth 50+ point campaign before the age of 23, which only a select few have managed to do in recent history. There’s no reason to believe that, even if he doesn’t reach the peak heights some of those guys, he won’t be able to at least jump another couple of levels as he approaches his physical peak as an athlete.

Somewhat anecdotally, his game has jumped leaps and bounds as a two-way player since the start of last season. From my limited viewings, he does as good a job as any forward of sagging back in his own zone and providing support. Beyond all of the offensive benchmarks we just outlined above, there’s a not-so-subtle irony to the idea that moving their best defensive option down the middle will help address their biggest need: becoming stingier in the defensive end.

It’s interesting that these trade rumours are predominantly coming on the heels of the Nugent-Hopkins/Hall combination being split up out of necessity once McDavid went down with injury. The beneficiary of that has been Leon Draisaitl, who has apparently vaulted himself ahead of Nugent-Hopkins on the organizational depth chart after just 15 games. There’s no question they’ve been wildly productive and filled with scintillating showings, but as Jonathan Willis so elegantly warned they’re also fraught with red flags. He’s had the good fortune of riding a significant percentage spike, being strapped to the hip of one of the league’s most dominant wingers, and having someone else pick up the tab when it comes to combating the other team’s best. Having to do the last part without the luxury of the first two is a whole other animal. 

If the Oilers brass does ultimately deem Nugent-Hopkins expendable because of Draisaitl’s emergence and McDavid’s eventual return, then I imagine that they’ll immediately have 29 interested suitors. The inherent issue, though, is that a very small number of those teams can actually entertain their request of a young, cost-effective top pairing defenceman. If there’s a rarer commodity across the league than an up-and-coming two-way center, it’s that. 

The Nashville Predators may be the one team with the ability to do so with Seth Jones, but even then you’re still rolling the dice on someone that’s yet to show he can handle the sort of responsibility and workload at this level that the Oilers are looking for. As good a bet as Jones appears to be for that based on everything he’s done to-date, it’s still a risky proposition. And all of that is assuming that the Predators would actually be willing to trade him, which is anything but a given. Those sorts of assets typically non-starters. Just as likely is the scenario in which the Oilers wind up settling for talking themselves into making an ill-advised leap of faith because they already feel pot committed. 

Peter Chiarelli and Co. may eventually need to take said risk in an act of desperation to change status quo and right the ship. They’d just better tread carefully here, because trading away a talent like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at this stage of his career carries with it a ton of blow-up potential. The guy being entrusted to make that determination should know a thing or two about that.