Playoff Previews: Stats for All Eight Series

Are you ready for some playoffssssss? (Pretend someone sang those words.)

For the first time in NHL history the playoffs will begin in May and finish in July. The playoff format resembles what we saw between 1986-1993 when teams played division foes seven and eight times in the regular season, and then seven-game series in the first two playoff rounds.

It creates opportunities for some heated games and intense rivalries. We get to see Florida and Tampa Bay meet in the playoffs for the first time, and if the final regular season meetings are any indication it will be an emotionally charged series.

Carolina and Nashville meet for the first time. Same with Vegas and Minnesota.

And some rivalries will be rekindled.

Montreal and Toronto meet in a playoff series for the first time since 1979. The Oilers and Jets haven’t played in the postseason since 1990. St. Louis and Colorado last met in 2001. Washington and Boston meet for only the third time and first since 2012, while Pittsburgh and New York played in 2019. The Penguins are 0-4 all-time against the Islanders having lost in 2019, 1993, 1982 and 1975.

The tightest division with six points separating the top teams. How a team plays early in the season often has little impact on how it plays in the playoffs, so I have outlined how teams played in the second half of the season, and again in the their final 10 games.

The top three were all very close with 40, 39 and 37 points. The Islanders won half its games and clearly doesn’t have the offensive firepower of the other three. The Islanders are better defensively, but not by the same margin as what it lacks offensively.

The top three were close again, while the Islanders struggled. New York has trended down in the second half of the season. However, its special teams have been really good recently.

The Islanders were 2-4-2 v. the Penguins in the regular season, but Pittsburgh won six of the last seven games. The games were all very close.

Player to watch:

Penguins: Jeff Carter. He has nine goals in his last 11 games. He has been reborn in Pittsburgh.

Islanders: Matt Barzal. He has no PP goals and only four PP points in the last 42 games. How is that possible?

Penguins defeat the Islanders in a playoff series for the first time. Pens in five.

Boston and Washington each won four games in their season series. The Capitals won once in overtime and once in a shootout. In the four games since the trade deadline, when both teams made significant moves, they are 2-2. Not much separates these two teams.

Boston has a clear advantage on faceoffs leading the league at 55.2, while Washington was 22nd at 49.2%. The Capitals scored the second most goals at 5×5 in the regular season with 131, while the Bruins have 107. Boston struggled with scoring depth at 5×5, until the addition of Taylor Hall gave him and David Krejci a big boost and now they have two legit scoring lines.

Players to watch:

Boston: Krejci (6-15-21) and Hall (8-6-14) have thrived together since Hall arrived from Buffalo.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin and TJ Oshie. Both are returning from injuries.

This series could come down to which team’s top six are more productive. This was the hardest series for me to pick. I will go Bruins in seven.

The top three have swapped positions all season, but the Hurricanes got the #1 seed. But suddenly the Predators have been quite good in the second half.

Nashville has the best record in the second half with an impressive 2.07 GAA. None of the teams had a very potent powerplay in the second half.

Florida enters the playoffs on a role in its last 10, winning eight and scoring 42 goals. The Panthers went 5-2-1 against the Lightning and have won the previous three meetings, including beating them 4-0 and 5-1 last week. The Panthers have absorbed the Aaron Ekblad injury much better than I expected. Florida outscored Tampa 31-24, but the Lightning will have Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov in the lineup for the playoffs. Kucherov could be a massive addition.

Players to watch:

Florida: @Sam Bennett has six goals and 15 points in 10 games with the Panthers. Also @Carter Verhaghe missed a month, returned last game and scored again. He has 18 goals and 36 points and faces his former tam.

Tampa Bay: @Victor Hedman. How healthy is he? Will Kucherov step on the ice and not miss a beat?

I’m taking Florida in six.

Carolina was 6-2 against the Predators, but Nashville won the last two meetings on May 8th and 10th. Nashville defeated the Hurricanes 5-0 and 3-1 when Carolina was battling for home ice advantage. The Hurricanes PP was unreal in the first half of the season at 30.7% when it scored 28 goals on 91 chances. In the second half it dipped to 17.8% scoring 13 goals on 73 opportunities.

Players to watch:

Carolina: Its skaters have been incredibly consistent. Their first half and second half production is very close. But its goaltending has seen the big change. @Alex Nedeljkovic was on waivers to start the season, and only made five starts in January and February and posted a .914sv%. Since March 1st he has made 18 starts and posted a .937Sv%. Stellar.

Nashville: @Juuse Saros. The diminutive goalie has been excellent for the past three months. In his previous 27 starts he has a .940Sv% and 1.90 GAA. He’s been incredible and he will make the series closer than many think.

Of all the #4 seeds, I think Nashville has the best chance to pull off an upset, because it’s been very good in the second half. But I will go Hurricanes in seven.

Minnesota had a great run and was close to the top dogs all season, but I see a clear separation between the top-two teams.

Colorado and Vegas are dominating and outscoring teams by an average of more than 1.3 goals/game.

Down the stretch the gap widened even more.

The Blues special teams ended the season on absolute fire and that has to continue for them to have any chance against Colorado. The Avs are just too fast and too deep. I don’t see how the Blues can handle them. Colorado was 5-3 against the Blues this season, but their two recent losses came when the Avalanche had players returning from COVID and injuries. A healthy Avalanche lineup will roll over the Blues.

Player to watch:

Colorado: @Nathan MacKinnon had 37 points in his final 24 games. He’s been dominant for the Avalanche after, for his standards, a slow start.

St. Louis: @Torey Krug only had 13 powerplay points, but five came in the last seven games. The Blues PP has to remain hot for them to have a chance.

I will take Avs in five.

Frank Seravalli had a great stat on the DFO Rundown Podcast today. Vegas played 10 games this season with fewer than 18 skaters, due to salary cap issues. Five of their regulation losses came in those games. There is no salary cap in the playoffs, so it won’t be a concern, but the lack of cap space likely cost Vegas first place in the West. Will that come back to haunt them?

Vegas was 3-4-1 against Minnesota this season, and one of those regulation losses occurred when Vegas didn’t dress a full roster. Minnesota allowed 40 goals in their final 10 games. If they can’t stop the bleeding this series will be over quickly.

Player to watch:

Vegas: @Mark Stone had 1.43 points (10 in seven games) against the Wild. He’s had his best offensive season of his career with 1.11 points/game.

Minnesota: Kirill the Thrill Kaprizov. How will he handle the physicality of the Golden Knights?

Vegas is too big and physical for the Wild. Vegas in five.

Like the West I see a clear separation from the top-two teams to Winnipeg and Montreal. Keep in mind Toronto, Winnipeg and Edmonton have one game remaining.

Toronto’s powerplay has been ridiculously bad. Its PP was 33.3% in the first 20 games, but only 11.1% in the last 35 games. Having the league’s top goal scorer, but an unproductive powerplay, doesn’t jive. If its PP gets going the Leafs will be a tough out.

The Jets have stumbled down the stretch. Injuries to Nikolaj Ehler and Adam Lowry didn’t help, but they have been leaking goals.

Edmonton has been one of the best teams in the NHL since February 1st. Its 2.48 GA/game is fifth best in the NHL and the Oilers are eighth in GF/game at 3.27.

Edmonton dominated the season series 7-2 and McDavid scored 22 points in nine games. Can the Jets come up with a game plan to slow him down?

Player to watch:

Edmonton: Easy answer is McDavid. He has 35 points in his previous 13 games for an average of 2.69 points/game. Leon Draisaitl is second in the NHL in that time at 1.69 points/game. Also Leon Draisaitl has 22 points in his last 13 playoff games.

Winnipeg: Connor Hellebuyck. He has been excellent for the Jets all season. He struggled against Edmonton, but mainly because the Jets gave up too many good looks to the two most dangerous players in the NHL. Hellebuyck needs to steal some games to give the Jets a chance.

I will take Edmonton in five.

Montreal was dominant at 5×5 to start the season, outscoring teams 72-45 in its first 33 games. But in its last 23 the Habs were outscored 58-34. The team’s condensed schedule, due to COVID, really hampered its play. Or were they not as good as their early record?

Toronto dominated the season series going 7-2-1 and outscoring Montreal 34-25. Auston Matthews had seven goals and 14 points in 10 games. Toronto’s struggling PP was actually 82% against the Habs in the regular season and if Toronto gets going on the PP this series will be over quickly.

Player to watch:

Toronto: Goaltending. Will it be Freddie Andersen or Jack Campbell? Whoever starts game one needs to have a good game and not give Montreal a reason to believe.

Montreal: Brendan Gallagher is the bloodline of the Canadiens. The Habs have to play physical and try to slow down Toronto. Can Gallagher make an impact returning from injury?

I have Maple Leafs in five.

I only have one lower seed winning, which likely means there will be more.

Who do you like?