Questions on Defence: Part three

In part three of this series we will look at Mark Fayne.

Fayne is 29 years old and has played 385 NHL games, second most on the Oilers blueline behind Andrej Sekera. He has NHL experience, and the Oilers need him to be steady this season.

The most pressing question surrounding Fayne is: Can he be a steady, reliable D-man in Edmonton?

Fayne’s two seasons in Edmonton have not been nearly as productive defensively as his time in New Jersey. Part of that, I’m sure, is due to team structure, having players capable of playing sound defensively and being paired with Andy Greene.,

During the three seasons between 2011/2012 to 2013/2014 in New Jersey, Fayne had a CF% of 53.8 in 2939 minutes of EV.

He played 1592 of those minutes with Greene and they combined for a CF of 54.8%. His CF% numbers were solid with any other D-man he played 100+ minutes with: Henrik Tallinder (54.2 in 518 minutes ), Bryce Salvador (51.3 in 367 minutes), Peter Harrold (50.7 in 109 minutes) and Anton Volchenkov (55.6 in 101 minutes).

He played briefly with Adam Larsson, 46 minutes, and they struggled with a CF of 41.6%. A very small sample size, but Larsson was a raw rookie and Fayne was only in his second to fourth seasons. When paired with steady veterans he was quite solid.

The most common forwards he played with were Dainius Zubrus (875 minutes), Patrik Elias (796), Adam Henrique (755), Ilya Kovalchuk (590) and Travis Zajac (570). He played 350+ minutes with other veterans like Jaromir Jagr, Zach Parise, Petr Sykora, David Clarkson and Steve Bernier.

The Devils had significantly more experience and overall proven skill than the Oilers of the past two seasons.

Fayne’s two seasons in Edmonton have not been great. He could have played better, but the overall team wasn’t as good, either. In the three seasons with New Jersey Fayne’s CA60 was a stellar 41.6 compared to 56.57 in Edmonton. We’ve seen the OIlers bleed chances for a long time, and while Fayne was brought in to solidify the defence, he needed some help. A stay-at-home D-man won’t be able to drive the on-ice play of his teammates.

In his two seasons at 2096 minutes of EV icetime in Edmonton, Fayne’s CF was 47.7%. He was 49.2% last season and 46.2% in 2015. Because he was sent to the AHL last season, the perception might be he struggled more, but I believe after he was recalled he was okay, but only in the right situation.

The problem is first impressions, and his first few months were not good. He was indecisive and wasn’t assertive. He was hesitant defensively and it led to a demotion in early December.

I thought he was better in the second half of the season, which of course wasn’t hard considering how much he struggled in the first two months, but he was more assertive and the coaches played him more. He wasn’t a liability.

In his first 24 games of the season Fayne was -8 with a 48.8 CF%, and after his recall he was +2 with a 49.4% over his final 45 games. His possession numbers weren’t much different, but he didn’t struggle as much if you look solely at that stat.

Here is who he was paired with most during the past two seasons in Edmonton.

Andrej Sekera: 656 minutes and CF of 49.6%
Oscar Klefbom: 390 min and 46.4%
Martin Marincin: 331 min and 46.3%
Nikita Nikitin: 297 min and 49.7%
Keith Aulie: 103 min and 42.9%
Darnell Nurse: 97 min and 44.4%

If you only look at his CF%, you’d think 49.2% wasn’t bad, but like in most stats you have to dig deeper.

Woodguy (Darcy McLeod) invented a new quality of competition stat called WoodMoney. You can read about it here. He wanted to see more than just the CF%, and dug into individual matchups. His stat is a great illustration of where you should play Fayne, and more importantly who he can play against. This is from last season.

Fayne vs Elite Forwards 44.7%

Fayne vs Average Forwards 49.7%

Fayne vs Below Average Forwards 54.8%

It is hard to appreciate a defensive defender who isn’t flashy. Fayne isn’t physical. He isn’t aggressive. He isn’t a great passer. When he plays well you don’t notice him, and for many it is hard to appreciate what he can add. I find myself in that category of asking: What does he bring to the table?

When he is playing well his anticipation and reading of the play is quite good. He uses his stick well and takes good angles to attack forwards, while also disrupting passing lanes. I believe he can help your team when the other four players are on the ice are in tune to the system. The problem in Edmonton is that hasn’t been the case for a few seasons, and because Fayne is a veteran you would expect him to help lead the team in improving their system play, but he does not possess the attributes to be that player.

He is more of a complementary player. He is smart enough and has the ability to play well within a system, but when the structure breaks down he can’t make the dynamic play to alleviate the pressure. It simply isn’t in his game, so we shouldn’t expect him to be the guy to help reset the team defensively.

The challenge for the Oilers is they have him and Eric Gryba as third pairing right shot defenders. Neither will provide much offence, and I’d argue Gryba has the better first pass. I like Gryba’s game, I will feature him later in this series, more than Fayne’s based on last season.

The good news is every year is a new year, and while the past performances might be the best indicator of the future, it isn’t a guarantee. Fayne can still be an effective NHLer, but his salary doesn’t jive with a third-pairing defender. That isn’t the Todd McLellan’s issue, but it is Peter Chiarelli’s.

Fayne worked hard on a few specific areas of his game this off-season. He worked on footspeed as well as puck handling. We’ll find out when camp begins how it impacts his game.

I believe Fayne can be a solid defender, as long as you don’t overplay him and don’t expect him to be your top shutdown defender. I believe he and Gryba are in a battle for the third pairing RD, even though Gryba only has a PTO at this point.

Fayne has the advantage because he has a contract, but the Oilers proved last season they aren’t afraid to send him to the minors if he isn’t playing well. He needs to improve from last year, and when he is in situations against elite forwards, he needs to be better. If he could improve to 48 or 49 CF% in those situations, the Oilers could live just fine with that.

The burning question is: can he?

Where do you think Fayne fits, and what is a realistic expectation for him this season?

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